W2R
Moderator Emeritus
I'll go further and reiterate that prediction, plus suggest that somewhere along that path there will be corrections from time to time.
What? Both ups AND downs? Now that's bold.
I'll go further and reiterate that prediction, plus suggest that somewhere along that path there will be corrections from time to time.
I get nervous when we start ragging on someone who makes a bearish prediction.
Ha, I don't think anybody is ragging on him for making a bearish prediction (at least, I know I'm not).
I would have responded in exactly the same way if he had predicted that the S&P would have increased 20% (from some unknown value) some (unknown) day or other between now and October 31st (of some unknown year, as one poster above pointed out).
To me that is no more a prediction than could be had from a Magic 8 ball. I think that TSL knows that and doesn't mind a little friendly chiding.
As for me I am stuck with the Dow 12,200 by the end of the year.
I'm not particularly optimistic, and I still see problems, especially too much debt: gumment, corporate, and consumer. Lots of excess inventory, but mostly in real estate. I think most corporations are lean and mean in that regard. "Structural" unemployment is probably 4-6% (swag), so everything above that is "real"... heh, heh
Edited to add: There's a lot of cash out there looking for yield...
Why the sad face? If that's your belief, place your bet accordingly and you would do well.
In a way, FD is right! The S&P first reached the 900 levels in Nov 1997, proceeded to exceed 1500 in Aug 2000, before retreating back to 800 level in Sep 2002. It then climbed back to the 1500 level in Oct 2007, dropped below 700 in March this year, and ended back to the 900 level now.
So, surely, recently there was a long "sucker rally" from Nov 97 to Aug 2000, and another one from Sep 2002 to Oct 2007. A 3-yr sucker rally, and another 5-yr long. How long is this sucker rally going to last?
Wheee!!!! Dow over 9000 at the moment.
I heard yesterday that the Nasdaq has been up for 11 straight days (working on a 12th now unless we sell off). That hasn't happened since the tech bubble days of 1998, apparently...Seriously, it is kinda scary looking at the chart since July 10. 13 days and we are up 11% already. 9 business days of gains every day. I guess we had similar charts on the way down back in late 2008 and early 2009. Eventually it will level off, maybe go down.