Latest Inflation Numbers and Discussion

[aja8888]

I saw avocado toast on the menu at IHOP for $11.49; comes with hash browns and roasted cherry tomatoes. If you want 2 eggs and bacon, it is $18.49. It was one of the most expensive things on the menu, more than steak and eggs. With all of the sales, you can get avocados around here for $1 or less, sometimes much less.

I wonder who orders this.

I don't think I have ever seen avocado toast in a breakfast place in Texas. Maybe when enough Californians move here, it will be in demand enough to make the menus.

 

[Mulligan]

At the local Black Bear Diner here in The Woodlands, Texas, that same breakfast for two people (myself and a friend) is $32.00 ($16.00 each) without tip. We do this every other weekend. The place is always packed by 8:00 AM and a 1/2 hour wait by 9:00 AM.

That is a couple bucks higher than I normally see locally. But closer to that than $8 that is for sure. What I have also noticed is McDonalds drive through breakfast meals arent much cheaper than a sit down breakfast anymore.

 

[GenXguy]

That is a couple bucks higher than I normally see locally. But closer to that than $8 that is for sure. What I have also noticed is McDonalds drive through breakfast meals arent much cheaper than a sit down breakfast anymore.

Yeah, I used to spend less than $3 for breakfast a McDonald's which included unlimited refills of coffee.

Used to get B&G at Hardee's for a little over $1 regularly years ago. I hate to think how much those costs now.

Had a pancake at a restaurant the other day - $10.

 

[Marc]

Monthly inflation numbers are less meaningful than rolling averages. Next month the 12m average will get another push down as last June the PCE was very high.

In general, we should expect to see inflation averages coming down over the next quarter.

Given December 2022 CPI-W (291.051) was lower than June 2022 CPI-W (292.542) we will definitely see a very low Y/Y number on CPI this month that will increase over the next six months just based on Y/Y effect. June CPI could be as low as 2% but will increase the rest of the year even if the prices are no longer rising.

Marc

 

[Montecfo]

We went for ice cream at an old school place out near Winchester VA.

I ordered a medium swirl cone raspberry and coconut. My wife ordered a small chocolate and vanilla swirl cone.

My cone with all the stacked ice cream was a foot tall. My wife's was less than half that.

Price was $8.49 total. Could not believe it was so cheap.

 

[Montecfo]

Given December 2022 CPI-W (291.051) was lower than June 2022 CPI-W (292.542) we will definitely see a very low Y/Y number on CPI this month that will increase over the next six months just based on Y/Y effect. June CPI could be as low as 2% but will increase the rest of the year even if the prices are no longer rising.



Marc

This is why the shorter term numbers tend to be more instructive.

 

[EvrClrx311]

We went for ice cream at an old school place out near Winchester VA.

I ordered a medium swirl cone raspberry and coconut. My wife ordered a small chocolate and vanilla swirl cone.

My cone with all the stacked ice cream was a foot tall. My wife's was less than half that.

Price was $8.49 total. Could not believe it was so cheap.

Howdy Neighbor. Wife and I just stopped for ice cream at a soft serve place in Purcellville, VA before the fireworks and two large cones ran us $12.57 -- The whole operation was simple two soft serve machines in what looked like a house converted to ice cream shop. Barely 150 square feet of standing space (15ish people in line) inside where you order, no chairs or tables. Extremely quick service, due to only 3 varieties being available. Two teenage employees. Made me wonder if I should open one up in Middleburg ... or maybe it was just the Holiday.

 

[GenXguy]

We went for ice cream at an old school place out near Winchester VA.

I ordered a medium swirl cone raspberry and coconut. My wife ordered a small chocolate and vanilla swirl cone.

My cone with all the stacked ice cream was a foot tall. My wife's was less than half that.

Price was $8.49 total. Could not believe it was so cheap.

Yikes! I got a hot fudge sundae yesterday using the DQ app deal for $2. It's double that normally.

I see Steak-n-Shake changed their $4 meals to 4-4-4 meals for $4.44. And the triple steakburger is no longer an option. Almost $5 with tax, doesn't feel like much of a deal anymore. Drive-thru so no tip and had water with me, so not too bad. Their shakes are up to $5 now except Happy Hour! So about $5.50 with tax. It's a different world today.

 

[audreyh1]

Oh no! More strong jobs data! (A recurring headline these days it seems)

Well over double the consensus number is a shocker.

Dow futures fall more than 200 points as strong jobs data points to more Fed tightening
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/05/sto...ell Thursday after,the path of interest rates.

Unemployment numbers due tomorrow. CPI next Wednesday July 12.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

I thought that would be good news.

 

[audreyh1]

I thought that would be good news.

They are focused on the Fed being more inclined to raise rates since the tight labor market is the most stubborn pressure on inflation.

This pushed the 2yr above 5%, interest rates popped across the board this morning.

 

[Koolau]

Yikes! I got a hot fudge sundae yesterday using the DQ app deal for $2. It's double that normally.

I see Steak-n-Shake changed their $4 meals to 4-4-4 meals for $4.44. And the triple steakburger is no longer an option. Almost $5 with tax, doesn't feel like much of a deal anymore. Drive-thru so no tip and had water with me, so not too bad. Their shakes are up to $5 now except Happy Hour! So about $5.50 with tax. It's a different world today.

Snake-and-Shake used to be my favorite FF place. I always ate inside with "full service." I believe their quality has slipped and we don't go anymore. The $4 meal was the last gasp for us to buy there. At 4-4-4- for $4.44. I doubt we'll go back. Too bad. They used to be the best.


Ahhhh. Maybe I'll give 'em another try. Nothing like S-N-S in Hawaii!

 

[JoeWras]

They are focused on the Fed being more inclined to raise rates since the tight labor market is the most stubborn pressure on inflation.

This pushed the 2yr above 5%, interest rates popped across the board this morning.

I don't get cable anymore, so I can't watch CNBC. Somehow, I left my XM radio on CNBC though, and yesterday I heard a pundit losing his mind over the Fed's obsession with wage inflation.

It is interesting how everyone has a different take on things. This pundit was making the point (probably not wrong) that inflation will continue to drop due to the shelter component finally catching up. His opinion is the Fed is too tight worried about wages, and should halt or reverse.

I don't know. There are too many moving parts. What I do know is that services are out of control. Services like HVAC or automobile repairs have easily seen 50% rises in prices over the last 4 years.

The construction labor supply problem has also reared its ugly head into continued home price pressure in my region. Shelter is again back on roll in my area, seeing about 10% gain so far this year after a significant pause last year. Nationally, it may be different so perhaps the shelter CPI component will crater... I'm not so sure though.

 

[Koolau]

I don't get cable anymore, so I can't watch CNBC. Somehow, I left my XM radio on CNBC though, and yesterday I heard a pundit losing his mind over the Fed's obsession with wage inflation.

It is interesting how everyone has a different take on things. This pundit was making the point (probably not wrong) that inflation will continue to drop due to the shelter component finally catching up. His opinion is the Fed is too tight worried about wages, and should halt or reverse.

I don't know. There are too many moving parts. What I do know is that services are out of control. Services like HVAC or automobile repairs have easily seen 50% rises in prices over the last 4 years.

The construction labor supply problem has also reared its ugly head into continued home price pressure in my region. Shelter is again back on roll in my area, seeing about 10% gain so far this year after a significant pause last year. Nationally, it may be different so perhaps the shelter CPI component will crater... I'm not so sure though.

Ignoring most of your post (as I don't fully understand all this FED stuff) and keying in on "services." Simple supply/demand seems so apparent here. Maybe it's time to start emphasizing training for service kinds of j*bs.

By the way. Thanks for monitoring CNBC so I don't have to.

 

[JoeWras]

Ignoring most of your post (as I don't fully understand all this FED stuff) and keying in on "services." Simple supply/demand seems so apparent here. Maybe it's time to start emphasizing training for service kinds of j*bs.

By the way. Thanks for monitoring CNBC so I don't have to.

Ha ha. After listening to this guy, I could only imagine his actual face, probably with eyeballs popping out. He was mad, mad!

As for the Fed, don't worry. Even the The Fed doesn't understand The Fed.

The problem with training for high skilled services is that you can't "work from home" on these jobs. I don't say that sarcastically. I'm serious. You already have revolts occurring in professions that traditionally worked out of cushy offices when they are not allowed to [-]goof off[/-] work from home. How can we expect the workforce to shift to dangerous job sites that have no heating or cooling, and perhaps involve shimmying in a 115F attic to fix equipment. HVAC sounds nice for a smart, skilled person until you realize how much time they spend in crawlspaces and attics.

 

[audreyh1]

I don't get cable anymore, so I can't watch CNBC. Somehow, I left my XM radio on CNBC though, and yesterday I heard a pundit losing his mind over the Fed's obsession with wage inflation.

I haven’t had cable in over 10 years and I don’t watch CNBC either or listen to them on the radio. What I do have is the CNBC app which has a handy customizable watchlist. I pick up the occasional finance headline that way.

You can use the app to watch some CNBC TV and select videos but I can’t stand watching financial TV anymore except for the occasional Fed press briefing.

 

[JoeWras]

I haven’t had cable in over 10 years and I don’t watch CNBC either or listen to them on the radio. What I do have is the CNBC app which has a handy customizable watchlist. I pick up the occasional finance headline that way.

You can use the app to watch some CNBC TV and select videos but I can’t stand watching financial TV anymore except for the occasional Fed press briefing.

I think that's why the radio was on CNBC. It was from the last Fed news and I forgot to change the station.

 

[Freedom56]

You can stream Bloomberg TV for free. It is much better than CNBC and probably the most serious business network on TV. Remember the Bloomberg terminal is the gold standard for financial information.

 

[GenXguy]

Snake-and-Shake used to be my favorite FF place. I always ate inside with "full service." I believe their quality has slipped and we don't go anymore. The $4 meal was the last gasp for us to buy there. At 4-4-4- for $4.44. I doubt we'll go back. Too bad. They used to be the best.

Ahhhh. Maybe I'll give 'em another try. Nothing like S-N-S in Hawaii!

It's a 2 hour round trip for me. I thought my double steakburger with cheese and fries were the same quality as before. I understand they moved to a kioski model and counter serve since the pandemic, but I haven't eaten inside one in years. I did used to eat inside quite a few years back and liked the table service. At least $4.44 isn't too bad in these days of high prices. Some of their other combos are like $8. I would go more if it was closer.

 

[GenXguy]

Oh no! More strong jobs data! (A recurring headline these days it seems)

Well over double the consensus number is a shocker.

Dow futures fall more than 200 points as strong jobs data points to more Fed tightening
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/05/stock-market-today-live-updates.html#:~:text=Traders%20on%20the%20floor%20of%20the%20NYSE%2C%20June%2030%2C%202023.&text=Stock%20futures%20fell%20Thursday%20after,the%20path%20of%20interest%20rates.

Unemployment numbers due tomorrow. CPI next Wednesday July 12.

And job openings fall by half a million.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/06/job-openings-fall-by-half-a-million.html

"The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that listings fell to 9.82 million, down 496,000 from April and below the 9.9 million estimate."

"There were about half a million fewer job openings in May than the previous month, providing at least a modest sign that the ultra-tight labor market could be loosening a bit, the Labor Department reported Thursday"

Dow falls nearly 500 points as Thursday’s sell-off on rate fears accelerates

 

[Montecfo]

And job openings fall by half a million.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/06/job-openings-fall-by-half-a-million.html

"The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that listings fell to 9.82 million, down 496,000 from April and below the 9.9 million estimate."

"There were about half a million fewer job openings in May than the previous month, providing at least a modest sign that the ultra-tight labor market could be loosening a bit, the Labor Department reported Thursday"

Dow falls nearly 500 points as Thursday’s sell-off on rate fears accelerates

The JOLTS is a big deal. Job openings have declined rapidly as the piece notes.

Jobs/unemployment is a backward looking sign. I thought the Fed was correct to pause, but what they are doing is not a pause. And they need to dust off the ECON 101 texts and understand that 11 hikes in 12 meetings and 525BP in a little over a year needs time to stew. They are not allowing that. It is unlikely to end well.

 

[Gumby]

Oh, no! More people are making stuff, earning money, paying taxes and buying stuff. That can't possibly be good for the economy.

 

[Chuckanut]

Oh, no! More people are making stuff, earning money, paying taxes and buying stuff. That can't possibly be good for the economy.

And paying SS taxes. [emoji16]

 

[explanade]

They are focused on the Fed being more inclined to raise rates since the tight labor market is the most stubborn pressure on inflation.

This pushed the 2yr above 5%, interest rates popped across the board this morning.

It may also be some profit taking after the run up in stocks the first half, including last week.

 

[FREE866]

Market was down~1% on this "big news", honestly--who cares?! I mean, is anyone on here really going to change their investment strategy based on this?

there is "noise" every day that comes and goes.