I agree on deficit spending. Also not sure 2% is correct either.
I bolded the "flawed shelter metric" and want to discuss this a bit. I understand your concern and agree it has flaws. There's a lag, and we're seeing higher CPI from events that occurred 3 years ago. There's also the issue that things like the recent homeowners insurance increase and home repairs (HVAC especially) get baked into "shelter," and those things are still rising.
However, previous ways of measuring it were also flawed. If we went back to pre-1983 methods, CPI would have been above 10% in 2021-22. I'm not sure that is healthy either. You think everyone went nuts with the numbers we had, well, people would have gone completely off the rails if it spiked as it could have.
You are beating a drum here, so, I'll accept your premise and agree it is flawed, but I'd also like everyone to know that this is not some conspiracy or anything. The actuaries and nerds at BLS are struggling with this too. They know it is inherently flawed but have decided it is the lesser of evils.
There was a huge change in the way it works in 1983. This lag that was induced was intentional after the crazy spikes of the 70s. Since then, there have been many studies -- and continue to be studies -- to look at changing it again.
If anyone wants to deep dive on this, here are a few official references:
Report on why it changed in 1983:
https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1982/06/art2full.pdf
Official commentary from BLS on how "shelter" works:
Measuring Changes in Shelter Prices in the Consumer Price Index : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
BLS asked the super nerds for suggestions, they came up with this very detailed report. If you really want to get in the weeds, read this. It is interesting. It also discusses the problems with measuring the "medical care" component. The upshot from the National Academy of Sciences nerds was that although it is flawed, they still recommend keeping shelter as is (OER). However, the report suggests that BLS improve data input and broaden ways of getting data. So, we may see some improvement in the future. TBD.
Nerd talk:
https://www.bls.gov/evaluation/modernizing-the-consumer-price-index-for-the-21st-century.pdf