Longest Bull Market in History! Woo-hoo!

[gcgang]

What are you doing to celebrate the Longest Bull Market in History?

Longest Bull, Ever? | Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog

 

[RobbieB]

I bought a bottle of Nolet's gin, $55, makes a wonderful martini -

 

[bingybear]

What are you doing to celebrate the Longest Bull Market in History?

Longest Bull, Ever? | Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog

you had to jinx it.

 

[NW-Bound]

Doggone it! I will have to go out to get a refill of Bombay Sapphire gin. I still have some Cocchi Americano left to make a Vesper Martini.

 

[6miths]

The chart shows and article says that we're currently in the third longest bull and it's hard to take a great deal of consolation when the longest bull was immediately proceeding the Great Depression.

 

[RobbieB]

Another reason to stock up on good booze.

 

[gcgang]

The chart shows and article says that we're currently in the third longest bull and it's hard to take a great deal of consolation when the longest bull was immediately proceeding the Great Depression.

The article was written in September. It's now March. This IS now the Longest...

 

[6miths]

Oh rats! Now we're definitely headed for the big one! Though I guess on the bright side the run up has only been half as much.

 

[W2R]

What are you doing to celebrate the Longest Bull Market in History?

Longest Bull, Ever? | Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog

Everybody in New Orleans celebrated today! Parades, floats, copious alcohol and cake, beads, song and dance. (They just didn't know they were celebrating the Longest Bull Market in History.)



Honestly I think I'm ready for the inevitable crash if and when it happens. Meanwhile, let's celebrate.

 

[brucethebroker]

you had to jinx it.

Did it make the cover of Time magazine yet?

 

[marko]

Honestly I think I'm ready for the inevitable crash if and when it happens.

You mean the next awesome buying opportunity, right?

 

[Dawg52]

Everybody in New Orleans celebrated today! Parades, floats, copious alcohol and cake, beads, song and dance. (They just didn't know they were celebrating the Longest Bull Market in History.)



Honestly I think I'm ready for the inevitable crash if and when it happens. Meanwhile, let's celebrate.

I think I see you. I can't imagine being in that crowd.

 

[W2R]

You mean the next awesome buying opportunity, right?

Absolutely!

I think I see you. I can't imagine being in that crowd.

The crowds here are just unbelievable over Mardi Gras; we get 1-2 million extra people flooding into New Orleans, normal population only 378,000.

It's over for another year, so life is returning to normal now.

 

[audreyh1]

I tend to think that the longest bull it 1982-2000. That 1990-1991 8 month recession is so tiny compared to 2000-2002 and 2008-2009 and there was no bear market selloff, although it got close. There was a crash in 1987 that lasted a few months but there was no recession associated with it. Overall there were barely any interruptions of that tremendous 18 year bull market.

 

[razztazz]

You mean the next awesome buying opportunity, right?

That's exactly how I see it

 

[Lsbcal]

I tend to think that the longest bull it 1982-2000. That 1990-1991 8 month recession is so tiny compared to 2000-2002 and 2008-2009 and there was no bear market selloff, although it got close. There was a crash in 1987 that lasted a few months but there was no recession associated with it. Overall there were barely any interruptions of that tremendous 18 year bull market.

+1

I'll add one comment about that 1987 selloff. The bond real rates in 1987 were very high. The 10yr Treasury was 9.0% yield and inflation was around 4%. So bonds were a stiff competitor to stocks. Not at all the case now.

Lesson to me as a retiree, to avoid a 1987 like event I'd be wise to shift my AA more to bonds as they reach very high real rates. That is a long way off.

There are several lessons from the past. Unfortunately I'm constantly learned new ones after the fact.

 

[Totoro]

Yeah: German 2-year government bonds are at -0.55%. Nominal.

Wish I could lend money at those kind of rates ..

 

[Major Tom]

What are you doing to celebrate the Longest Bull Market in History?

Getting nervous.

 

[W2R]

Getting nervous.

It's good practice then, for the next bear market. There were a lot of nervous people here in 2008-2009.

I calculated last night that if the market keeps rising as it did during January and February, by mid April I will have the same size portfolio that I had in May of 2015, at its all time high right before I bought my dream house in cash. Now that would be a dream come true. A free house.

 

[NW-Bound]

You mean the next awesome buying opportunity, right?

Are you suggesting that we all go back to work to get money to buy?

I've got cash, but much of it is slated for investment in consumables, plus healthcare costs.

Lemme see. 30% in cash right now, divided by 7 years of famine, so what's the WR?

Answer: 4.3%. Holy moly! I can still buy in a crash of the same proportion as 2008-2009 (if I dare!). But got to have that SS claim form ready.

 

[FIREmenow]

Are you suggesting that we all go back to work to get money to buy?

I've got cash, but much of it is slated for investment in consumables, plus healthcare costs.

Lemme see. 30% in cash right now, divided by 7 years of famine, so what's the WR?

Answer: 4.3%. Holy moly! I can still buy in a crash of the same proportion as 2008-2009 (if I dare!). But got to have that SS claim form ready.

"Gonna be a three-potato week......."

 

[Sunset]

Well now that I know the market is steady and increasing, its probably time to join everyone else and jump in ....

 

[Lsbcal]

Well now that I know the market is steady and increasing, its probably time to join everyone else and jump in ....

Come on in, the water is nice and warm.

Boiling frogs?

 

[JohnnyBGoode]

That's exactly how I see it

+1

I have cash sitting on the sidelines for just such an opportunity. It seems clear to me now what I should do if stocks suddenly get cheap. I just need to keep that same clear head then as I do now.

 

[Major Tom]

I calculated last night that if the market keeps rising as it did during January and February, by mid April I will have the same size portfolio that I had in May of 2015, at its all time high right before I bought my dream house in cash. Now that would be a dream come true. A free house.

That would be wonderful! I am taking a similar approach. I have a new "baseline value" for my portfolio established in my head. It is the median figure for my balances in 2016. Although my portfolio value spent a fair amount of time both above and below this figure, it seemed to spend the most time pretty close to this particular number. For this reason, all the gains above it are not fully "established" in my head and therefore, don't really feel like "my money".

The more my portfolio value continues to rise in the next few months, the better I'll be able to psychologically ride out a severe correction, as all recent gains merely feel like froth that I could bear to see "blown off the top", if that makes any sense.