Monday Market Poll

[renferme]

Also remember what happens if you retire and the market immediately take a big hit. You can never make up the losses. So I have to take FIRECALC with a grain of salt and I have to take less than 4% just to be safe - just extra cautious I guess.
Or maybe I'm becoming another John Galt.
I would die if I was down 52k in one day like Cybrmike.

 

[retire@40]

Friday's market just proves to me that I'm correct in keeping a mere 25% in stocks.
The market giveth and the market taketh away.
The bear market that started in 2000 continues today.
The up of 2003 and 2004 were just upward spikes in what continues to be a very long bear market that I expect will continue for a very long time.
So sorry for the pessimism.
.
Remember what Bernstein said, something like this:   Expected return = the dividend rate + the annual % increase in dividends.
So expect about a 6 percent increase in stocks,  which is only a fraction above what you can get with bonds or CDs.    So is the risk worth it ?

I wish more people thought like you, at least for the next 2 or 3 years. I need the market to stay as low as possible while I'm accumulating.

 

[retire@40]

I would die if I was down 52k in one day like Cybrmike.

This is just a wild guess, but he probably has a new worth of about $5 million and his daily +/- is probably in the $20K range, so I wouldn't be too concerned at those levels.

At one point, I thought I would die if my net worth decreased $1K in a day.  Now without breaking a sweat, I expect to be up or down many thousands depending on how the market does.

It's all relative.

 

[brewer12345]

Eh, I think I was off by something like 1/2%.  Frankly, it is hard to get upset or excited about a lot of the day to day stuff.  If you have an adequately diversified portfolio (bonds, cash, US equities, foreign equities, foreign bonds, commodities, real estate, etc.), a significant move in any goven market isn't that big a deal.

What really matters to an ER is both market performance AND inflation in the first 5 years of retirement.  The first day/week/month/year?  Snore...

For those of us still accumulating, I personally would be thrilled to see some soft market years.  I have actually been slowly accumulating cash because there aren't particularly attractive opportunities, although I am about ready to start nibbling at certain junk bonds, out of favor equities, etc.

 

[GolferAndy]

One day's results are only meaningful if you're a very short-term investor. Otherwise it's background noise.

Monday? My guess is we gain back half of Friday's loss.

 

[mathjak107]

the way i look at it my mix of funds has grown from 100.000 in 1987 to 1 million today...thats thru crashes,wars and events that make our heads spin...even a 20% drop puts me light years ahead of not being in the markets in comparison to bonds or cd's over the same time period....we all forget the rollbacks are rolling back to levels ,assuming you have enough cycles in the markets that would be un-attainable without being in the game

 

[HFWR]

Up 3.8% ytd, says my 401k website...

Have about $35k in cash for some bargain shopping.

 

[Spanky]

Down 0.68% - not too bad.

Hoping for 1% gain on Monday

 

[Marshac]

Down 0.68% - not too bad.

Almost the same as mine- rounded up to .7%

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Starting out nicely up this morning. Hey, look! The suns coming out!

Someone paint some dots on that kids eyes. Dang it was tough times back then. They couldnt even afford pupils...

 

[TromboneAl]

Well, 14% of us were right!

 

[Marshac]

Well, 14% of us were right!

I was wondering if the market was going to follow the nikkei down.... glad it didn't

 

[kat]

Well, 14% of us were right!

Yup, we were!