Doesn't the poll response depend on a number of individual factors including age, portfolio size, risk tolerance, and income from SS, pensions or annuities?
age -YES
portfolio size - NO
risk tolerance - NO
income from SS, pensions or annuities - NO/maybe (maybe depends on if the income is inflation adjusted or not)
Age/years in the model, definitely. At low years/high age, the portfolio will be hurt by short terms equity dips w/o enough time to recover. So that is a factor for sure.
For everything else, it is the withdrawals from the portfolio that determine success/failure. Your personal risk tolerance doesn't change the output of the model (which is what the OP asked). Starting portfolio balance doesn't matter, X% is X%.
Person A may be drawing 2% IA (Inflation Adjusted) from the portfolio with zero pension/SS. They use 2% IA just because they are conservative and have a big enough stash to meet their needs/wants.
Person B may be drawing 2% IA from the portfolio and pension/SS make up another 2% for a 4% IA TOTAL. As far as their portfolio depletion is concerned, it will fail at the same time as person A. The portfolio doesn't "know" about the pension/SS.
Person C may be drawing 4% IA from the portfolio with zero pension/SS. Person C portfolio will fail sooner than person A or B, because it is the draw from the portfolio that matters.
I modeled this in FICALC. As expected $40K IA spend on a $1M portfolio, 30 years has ~ 95% success, $0-$6.1M low/high ending balance.
And $20K IA spend on a $1M portfolio, 30 years has ~ 100% success, $1.2M-$8.0M low/high ending balance.
And $40K IA spend on a $1M portfolio with $20K SS, 30 years has ~ 100% success, $1.2M-$8.0M low/high ending balance. Exactly the same as a $20K IA spend w/o SS, because both portfolios 'see' a 2% IA withdraw. As I said earlier, that (and age) is all that matters.
It's just not clear at all what OP is trying to glean from this line of questioning? It sounds like he's trying to justify a case for a 0/100 AA? Well, there is a case for it, but to me, all this poll and other information does is obfuscate that.
-ERD50