Settling Mars - Opportunities and challenges

[NW-Bound]

Musk certainly has some notches on his belt. It's undeniable. But I am still watching to see how some of his endeavors will work out.

For example, the Starlink service promises to bring the Internet to far fetches of the world. I don't doubt that it will work, but will it prove to be financially self-sustaining? Much of the developed world is already served by land connections, which have higher aggregate bandwidth than satellite links and at lower costs. It's great to bring the Internet to the sub-Sahara region and the Siberian wilderness, but do the inhabitants there have the means to pay the charges? I don't think Starlink is intended to be a pro bono business.

In other words, a technically feasible solution is not necessarily the same as an economical solution. This has to be proved, the same as supersonic commercial air transport which died out with the termination of the Concorde.

About going to the inhospitable space of Mars, I would like to see Musk go there himself.

Perhaps he could try first to survive one winter by himself out in the Alaskan wilderness. It is a much more benign environment than Mars. The temperature is not as cold. He will have air to breathe. He has lots of water in the form of ice. He can bring a lot more supplies and equipment. And most importantly, if he could not hack it anymore there, he could call for a rescue. Why not try there first, before you go to live on Mars? Why don't you go first?

PS. Even if his far-fetched endeavors do not work out, it does not void what he has accomplished. I am just amused by people assuming that because of his past results, he will have better odds at the next reaches. No, each will have to be considered individually in their difficulties and obstacles to overcome.

None of my notes above has anything to do with Musk's selection as Man of the Year. I just want to point out that one cannot infer that once a guy has done something exciting that he is a god and be able to walk on water.

 

[NW-Bound]

About trying to survive in the Alaska wilderness for a practice before going to Mars, of course I am not the only one who has made a comparison.

I don't follow celebrities and notorious Twitts, so just now saw something about what Bezos said to the same effect, except that he used the top of Mt Everest as a trial place.

Bezos said that would be like a paradise compared to Mars.

 

[Fermion]

About trying to survive in the Alaska wilderness for a practice before going to Mars, of course I am not the only one who has made a comparison.

I don't follow celebrities and notorious Twitts, so just now saw something about what Bezos said to the same effect, except that he used the top of Mt Everest as a trial place.

Bezos said that would be like a paradise compared to Mars.

So, do you think that the environment around the ISS is much nicer? Because people have lived on that for nearly a year at a time and longer than a year on the Mir.

Also, I would hazard that the environment at depth in a Navy sub is probably as hazardous or more than even Mars. The outside pressure would crush you instantly, at least on Mars you would have a couple seconds to slap on a patch.

Living on Mars is not the big risk anyway, it is getting to Mars without getting a lethal dose of cosmic radiation. They really need some sort of magnetic shielding to prevent secondary radiation from the high energy stuff (not the solar flares, those can be stopped with plastic or water).

 

[NW-Bound]

So, do you think that the environment around the ISS is much nicer? Because people have lived on that for nearly a year at a time and longer than a year on the Mir.

Also, I would hazard that the environment at depth in a Navy sub is probably as hazardous or more than even Mars. The outside pressure would crush you instantly, at least on Mars you would have a couple seconds to slap on a patch.

Living on Mars is not the big risk anyway, it is getting to Mars without getting a lethal dose of cosmic radiation. They really need some sort of magnetic shielding to prevent secondary radiation from the high energy stuff (not the solar flares, those can be stopped with plastic or water).

The ISS got supplied from the earth. Its inhabitants are not doomed to stay there until they die. They do get rotated back to earth.

The sub is a dangerous place to live. And not too many people have the temperament to fight claustrophobia and to serve there. Any submariner will tell you the strict training and requirement that only a small percentage of the volunteers can muster. It's not for the masses. And I believe the sub environment is less dangerous than Mars exploration. Subs can surface in case of troubles, and they are resupplied from sub tenders.

And submariners are not doomed to spending the rest of their life in such enclosed and dangerous places. Each of their sailings has a defined ending that I am sure that the submariners all look forward to.

Anyway, just found out that Bill Nye, another celebrity I did not know about, also said about a practice run for would-be Martians in Antartica, and he stressed that it would be not on a cruise ship expedition, nor did he mean the science camps that get resupplied.

But why don't Martians want to practice on earth first? What are they afraid of?

Here in AZ, there was a project called the Biosphere which attempted to be self-supporting in an enclosed space without all the impossibilities on Mars. It did not end well. They used the abandoned structure for a tour, and I visited it quite a few years back. I don't know if it is still open, but it was a very worthwhile educational visit.

 

[Fermion]

Here in AZ, there was a project called the Biosphere which attempted to be self-supporting in an enclosed space without all the impossibilities on Mars. It did not end well. They used the abandoned structure for a tour, and I visited it quite a few years back. I don't know if it is still open, but it was a very worthwhile educational visit.

Of course the biosphere project didn't end well. The people there were always free to just tap out and go get a latte.

The Apollo 13 astronauts didn't have that option. They couldn't just say "oh, hey, yeah, this isn't going so well, can we get an Uber?" They had to work through the problems and find hard solutions, something that probably could have happened in the Biosphere project had lives really been on the line.

I don't think Musk is saying the first mission to Mars is going to be a cake walk or that we should send William Shatner. It is going to have to be made up of crew like those who are willing to serve on Navy subs or do missions like Apollo 13 and not give up.

 

[NW-Bound]

Of course the biosphere project didn't end well. The people there were always free to just tap out and go get a latte.

The Apollo 13 astronauts didn't have that option. They couldn't just say "oh, hey, yeah, this isn't going so well, can we get an Uber?" They had to work through the problems and find hard solutions, something that probably could have happened in the Biosphere project had lives really been on the line.

I don't think Musk is saying the first mission to Mars is going to be a cake walk or that we should send William Shatner. It is going to have to be made up of crew like those who are willing to serve on Navy subs or do missions like Apollo 13 and not give up.

So, run another project like the Biosphere but with stricter requirements. And it should be part of the training to go onto Mars. It's just like submariners' training. They don't just allow anybody onto the sub and jeopardize the mission.

Just a practice run in such a benign environment on earth. You have to crawl first, before running a marathon. And it is so cheap too, compared to the real mission.

Come on, prove to the world what you are made of.

 

[Fermion]

So, run another project like the Biosphere but with stricter requirements. And it should be part of the training to go onto Mars. It's just like submariners' training. They don't just allow anybody onto the sub and jeopardize the mission.

Just a practice run in such a benign environment on earth. You have to crawl first, before running a marathon. And it is so cheap too, compared to the real mission.

Come on, prove to the world what you are made of.

I don't think you can do it legally, at least not in the USA. In order for the Biosphere to be a real test, you would have to be willing to let people die or have the high risk of death if they do not put in the highest effort and attention. Can you imagine the lawsuits against SpaceX if they set up a new Biosphere in Arizona and just let people die instead of opening the hatch to render aid?

 

[NW-Bound]

I don't think you can do it legally, at least not in the USA. In order for the Biosphere to be a real test, you would have to be willing to let people die or have the high risk of death if they do not put in the highest effort and attention. Can you imagine the lawsuits against SpaceX if they set up a new Biosphere in Arizona and just let people die instead of opening the hatch to render aid?

Sure.

And that's why I said it should be a training requirement for would-be Martians. If you can't hack it, get out and don't come back.

You cannot allow weaklings to jeopardize the rest. Perhaps in a real mission, the ones that get "voted off the island" can become food for the stronger.

And I say the above not completely in jest.

PS. The inhabitants of the Biosphere were squabbling all the time. They were all lean and mean from hunger. And all this from such a benign environment, in which they do not have to worry about true life support systems.

And these volunteers did go through some selection process. They don't pay to go like cruiseship passengers who expect to be pampered.

 

[Gumby]

.....
The sub is a dangerous place to live. And not too many people have the temperament to fight claustrophobia and to serve there. Any submariner will tell you the strict training and requirement that only a small percentage of the volunteers can muster. It's not for the masses.

A history of being dropped on your head as an infant is an asset in the submarine force

And I believe the sub environment is less dangerous than Mars exploration. Subs can surface in case of troubles, and they are resupplied from sub tenders.

Yes and no. If the water comes in fast enough and/or for any reason you completely lose power, you may not make it back to the surface. The boat is, after all, designed to sink rather than float.

We did have to return to port for food, because there is only so much you can cram in the boat when you go out (we make our own oxygen and water). My boat unexpectedly got extended on patrol once, and we ran out of most food. For the last week, we were down to drinking purple Koolaid (bug juice, we called it) and eating the cans of wax beans that no one would eat earlier, as well as the freezer burned pieces of meat that were not fit to serve earlier and were usually trashed when we go back to port. Even worse was that we ran out of cigarettes.

And submariners are not doomed to spending the rest of their life in such enclosed and dangerous places. Each of their sailings has a defined ending that I am sure that the submariners all look forward to.....

Quite true. It's less stressful when you know that in a few months, you'll be going home. We actually celebrated halfway night during our patrols.


All kidding aside, I have long thought that they should look to the submarine force for people who potentially could be the first Martian settlers. They are probably among the humans most temperamentally suited for the job.


This is where they should train any settlers before sending them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McMurdo_Dry_Valleys

 

[braumeister]

For the last week, we were down to drinking purple Koolaid (bug juice, we called it) and eating the cans of wax beans that no one would eat earlier, as well as the freezer burned pieces of meat that were not fit to serve earlier and were usually trashed when we go back to port. Even worse was that we ran out of cigarettes.

Nasty!
In Vietnam, I closed the base and was one of the last people to leave. Our chow hall closed early and was shipped out, so for about the last four weeks we subsisted on what we called C-rations.
Meal, Combat, Individual (MCI)

As unpleasant as that was, it was probably better than your sub rations. One of the amusing touches was that each meal box contained a tiny pack containing four cigarettes. I would usually trade my dessert unit for a nonsmoker's butts.

 

[Gumby]

I have hived off a number of threads from the Elon Musk Time Person of the Year thread that deal specifically with the opportunities and challenges of potential human settlement on Mars, as I think that is an interesting stand-alone discussion.

 

[Fermion]

As I mentioned though, the problem first to solve is actually getting to Mars without glowing green (maybe that is why Martians are green though?)

Musk has not talked a great deal about this but maybe he has some trick up his sleeve (I had not heard about him landing a rocket on a boat until just a few months before it happened).

"Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere shields the planet from 99.9 percent of the radiation from space. However, for people outside the protection of Earth's magnetic field, space radiation becomes a serious hazard. An instrument aboard the Curiosity Mars rover during its 253-day cruise to Mars revealed that the radiation dose received by an astronaut on even the shortest Earth-Mars round trip would be about 0.66 sievert. This amount is like receiving a whole-body CT scan every five or six days.

A dose of 1 sievert is associated with a 5.5 percent increase in the risk of fatal cancers. The normal daily radiation dose received by the average person living on Earth is 10 microsieverts (0.00001 sievert)."

https://www.space.com/32644-cosmic-rays.html

 

[njhowie]

For example, the Starlink service promises to bring the Internet to far fetches of the world. I don't doubt that it will work, but will it prove to be financially self-sustaining? Much of the developed world is already served by land connections, which have higher aggregate bandwidth than satellite links and at lower costs. It's great to bring the Internet to the sub-Sahara region and the Siberian wilderness, but do the inhabitants there have the means to pay the charges? I don't think Starlink is intended to be a pro bono business.

In other words, a technically feasible solution is not necessarily the same as an economical solution. This has to be proved, the same as supersonic commercial air transport which died out with the termination of the Concorde.

There are more Starlink applications not as widely publicized - non-land connections. Before Starlink began offering consumer service and when there were far fewer satellites in the sky, a couple branches of the military were testing it out from their aircraft which currently use a different/slower service. Remembering from the article I read about it, the military testers were giddy as they were getting speeds of something like 50x the existing service. Government business could provide quite a boost to margins.

 

[NW-Bound]

I have hived off a number of threads from the Elon Musk Time Person of the Year thread that deal specifically with the opportunities and challenges of potential human settlement on Mars, as I think that is an interesting stand-alone discussion.

Oh good. I was off my laptop to tend to my garden, and when I came back wondered where the discussion went. Was it because of me offending someone? And I scratched my head to recall if I called anyone names.


Anyway, although I spent much of my career in aerospace (caveat: I worked more on airborne things with wings than without, and the rockets I worked on were unmanned), I lost my interest in space stuff. As I got older, I cared more about earthbound things that are more practical and pressing. Flood prevention, raising crop yield, drought management, renewable energy, etc... The stuff that people consider mundane and not exciting, but that's me.

Hence, I never looked much into these talks about manned Mars missions because I simply did not take them seriously, and still don't. Just now, found out that Musk talked about charging passengers a few hundred $K or something for a ride to Mars.

OK, I can slink back to my ignorance now. I don't see how any space mission can be treated like a cruise tour where the only requirement is the ability to pay. Will he have different classes of travel too? You got a wider private berth with your own toilet if you pay 10x?

It made me wonder if Musk knew about space travel requirement, and not just for a short ride to enjoy weightlessness. Then, I thought he did, but tried to BS people who believed in him as usual. That's the usual Musk, all right.

By the way, the reusable rocket is useful, same as anything that reduces the cost of a launch. We don't need manned Mars missions to justify it.

 

[Fermion]

I think he is just frustrated with how slow the space program has been and setting a lofty goal such as landing humans on Mars is a bit like saying we will put a person on the moon this decade in the 1960s when we hadn't even put a metal ball in orbit like the USSR.

I don't think selling the tickets is ever going to be the way it is paid for. Something like Starlink might be the way or something else that is a spinoff of the Mars mission.

I do think a lunar base makes more sense as a starting point and a test run, but he probably does not have the resources or lifetime left to do both the Moon and Mars, so he picks Mars.

 

[NW-Bound]

There are more Starlink applications not as widely publicized - non-land connections. Before Starlink began offering consumer service and when there were far fewer satellites in the sky, a couple branches of the military were testing it out from their aircraft which currently use a different/slower service. Remembering from the article I read about it, the military testers were giddy as they were getting speeds of something like 50x the existing service. Government business could provide quite a boost to margins.

People may still remember the Iridium system that was launched by Motorola. The satellites were fewer (77 hence the name Iridium for the element with that atomic number), and they were at higher orbits. Iridium did go into service for satellite phones and sold subscriptions to civilians. The voice service was of course more expensive than cellular phones, but as of now many sparsely populated places in Alaska still have no cell service. When I was first looking into an RV trek to Alaska and to venture further out, I looked briefly into getting the service.

Anyway, back in 2000, skeptics said while Iridium was useful, Motorola woud not be able to make enough money to maintain the system, which required periodic launching of replacement satellites. Sure enough, Iridium went bankrupt shortly, and was sold off by Motorola.

Iridium is still in use, and SpaceX launched some replacement satellites for them. Come to think of it, SpaceLink is a newer breed with more advanced technology, and will certainly breach into the market of Iridium, which was itself a challenger to Inmarsat which uses a few geosynchronous satellites.

The lower orbit satellites are less expensive, but you need more of them, 42000 in the case of Spacelink. I would not know the details, but suspect that the maintenance cost of replacing satellites will be huge.

The revenue of Inmarsat is about $1.5 billion/year. That of Iridium is $600 million. SpaceLink aims for much higher revenues to survive, but I don't know their plan or target.

 

[Fermion]

Estimates of $10B in revenue for Starlink by 2025 with a P/S value of it at $30B.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2021/02/10/how-is-spacexs-starlink-service-shaping-up/?sh=3f56aa367027

Which of course means it will do an IPO for $100B because of this current bitcoin/gamestop market.

 

[JoeWras]

We did have to return to port for food, because there is only so much you can cram in the boat when you go out (we make our own oxygen and water). My boat unexpectedly got extended on patrol once, and we ran out of most food. For the last week, we were down to drinking purple Koolaid (bug juice, we called it) and eating the cans of wax beans that no one would eat earlier, as well as the freezer burned pieces of meat that were not fit to serve earlier and were usually trashed when we go back to port. Even worse was that we ran out of cigarettes.

Gumby, during that extended patrol (I almost typed "parole" - might have been better, ha ha), did you get a chance to surface at all? I would guess no, so that's tough man.

 

[Fermion]

Gumby, during that extended patrol (I almost typed "parole" - might have been better, ha ha), did you get a chance to surface at all? I would guess no, so that's tough man.

Isn't a lot of that stuff kind of like rule 1 of the fight club. Max depth, etc.?

 

[NW-Bound]

Speaking of Mars colonization and submarine operation, I find that the following quote is apt.

“Every society is three meals away from chaos” ― Vladimir Lenin

Of course, submariners are trained and greatly disciplined.

The civilians? Heck, they go on a rampage simply when running out of TP.

 

[Gumby]

The current occupational limit for exposure to ionizing gamma radiation is 5 rem (=.05 Sv) per year. For a 253 day period, that would mean .035 Sv = (253/365) x .05 To stay within that limit will require that any spacecraft have shielding around the living quarters sufficient to reduce the dose by a factor of ~20. (.66 Sv/.035 Sv) A tenth thickness is the amount of any material that will reduce the radiation by a factor of ten (i.e. 90% attenuation). A half thickness will reduce the radiation by a factor of 2 (50% attenuation). So we need a tenth thickness and a half thickness, or, because attenuation is logarithmic, 1.3 tenth thicknesses. Tenth thicknesses vary by type of radiation.

Ionizing radiation is the principal health hazard to living cells. There are three types of ionizing radiation - alpha and beta charged particles and gamma rays. Alpha particles can be stopped by a piece of paper. Beta particles can be stopped by your skin, or a 1 mm thick sheet of aluminum. The big problem will be gamma rays. A tenth thickness for gamma varies a little by the specific energy level of the gamma radiation. For the higher energy gamma (2.0 MeV) it is about 2.0" of lead, 2.67" of iron, 12" of water or certain polymers.

In sum, that means you need to put ~1.3 tenth thicknesses between the astronauts and the radiation (2.67" Pb or 3.47" Fe, or 15.6" water or polymer). You can use a combination of layers made of different materials, so long as the tenth thicknesses taken together add up to 1.3. Obviously, you have to assess mass and volume in selecting the materials.

We know that any mission will need to carry water with it. So, in simplest form, I envision that the crew quarters will be surrounded by a toroid plastic water tank, which has lead on the inner surface (the amount needed is less than it would be if it were the outer) and maybe a small layer of iron on the outer surface to protect against physical damage from micrometeorites.


Edit to add: It would be best if you could make a stop at the moon to fill up the water tank so that you don't have to lift all that water out of earth's gravity well. Or create an orbital water tanker and take it up a little at a time. Then load water in orbit.

 

[Fermion]

In sum, that means you need to put ~1.3 tenth thicknesses between the astronauts and the radiation (2.67" Pb or 3.47" Fe, or 15.6" water or polymer). You can use a combination of layers made of different materials, so long as the tenth thicknesses taken together add up to 1.3. Obviously, you have to assess mass and volume in selecting the materials.

We know that any mission will need to carry water with it. So, in simplest form, I envision that the crew quarters will be surrounded by a toroid plastic water tank, which has lead on the inner surface (the amount needed is less than it would be if it were the outer) and maybe a small layer of iron on the outer surface to protect against physical damage from micrometeorites.

But what about secondary radiation? Or are those numbers taking that into account? (the highly energized particles disrupting the atoms of the spacecraft itself and causing it to emit radiation)

 

[Gumby]

But what about secondary radiation? Or are those numbers taking that into account? (the highly energized particles disrupting the atoms of the spacecraft itself and causing it to emit radiation)

Like the cobalt and iron in the stainless steel components of a nuclear power plant, aluminum, which is the principal metal used in a spacecraft, can become activated through neutron capture and, once activated, can emit gammas. However, water and polymers are also good neutron shielding materials (due to having lots of hydrogen atoms to slow down the neutrons), so any aluminum interior to the water tank shield is less likely to be activated. And any activated aluminum (or other metal) exterior to the water tank still must get its gamma rays through the water shield to harm the astronauts.

 

[Ronstar]

Before colonizing Mars, it needs to be mapped and sold, like the frontier was sold after the revolutionary war to pay back the war debt.

 

[Gumby]

Before colonizing Mars, it needs to be mapped and sold, like the frontier was sold after the revolutionary war to pay back the war debt.

I think it is fairly well mapped. I like the selling part. You could also arrange for payment in land to those willing to build out the infrastructure - sort of how the US railroads were given federal lands in the 19th century to encourage them to build new rails going West.