Testing and Contact Tracing - What Do We Need?

[donheff]

Yes, good description. There are lots of areas in the US with low cases, but it won’t stay that way without some vigilance. Fortunately several states seem to be serious about hiring a lot of contact tracers. Now if we can just get that testing ramped up to way more, simpler, faster, much more accurate. Asking a lot - but you gotta do what you gotta do.

Without this, people are going to feel much less confident and stay pulled back.

+1 We could still do a decent containment job but I don't think many of the places that are "early on" are doing much to ramp up adequate testing, tracing, and surveillance. I hope I am wrong and they are quietly getting the job done. If not, it will take pure luck (the virus just disappears) for them to dodge a significant outbreak.

 

[ivinsfan]

Here in CT, the state has already done 170k tests, which is nearly 5% of the population (Maybe. There could have been multiple tests on some people). Currently, they are testing at a rate of almost 7k per day and the plan is to ramp up to about 15k per day by month's end. They have also started up a contact tracing program and hired a bunch of people for that. Given our relative success in beating the infection rate down over the past two months (there are currently only 937 people hospitalized, which is less than half of the peak reached on April 22), there is a chance that the tracing will be able to keep things under control as some of the restrictions are lifted.

Let's all hope the virus numbers stay low in your state. Where will they find the 15K daily to get tested. In theory by the end of the month even less people will be infected. I'm always wondering about the "target" numbers for testing. On any given day in this state between 95-80% of people tested are testing negative.

 

[Gumby]

I don't see a problem getting people who want to to be tested around here. The impact of the disease has been quite severe. Currently, CT ranks 5th among states in percentage of infections, with over 1% of our population testing positive, and 3rd in percentage of deaths - about 0.1% of population - after NY and NJ. We are still running 5-600 positives per day, although I think this represents increased testing rather than a steady infection rate. The percent of positive tests is decreasing. I am hoping we can return to the low numbers enjoyed by most of the rest of the country. And I hope the rest of the states can learn from our early mistakes.

 

[ivinsfan]

I don't see a problem getting people who want to to be tested around here. The impact of the disease has been quite severe. Currently, CT ranks 5th among states in percentage of infections, with over 1% of our population testing positive, and 3rd in percentage of deaths - about 0.1% of population - after NY and NJ. We are still running 5-600 positives per day, although I think this represents increased testing rather than a steady infection rate. The percent of positive tests is decreasing. I am hoping we can return to the low numbers enjoyed by most of the rest of the country. And I hope the rest of the states can learn from our early mistakes.

My point is if you start testing people who just "want" to get tested instead of people with symptoms or people in contact with positive tested contacts aren't you just totally skewing the % of positives per day.. just because someone wants to get tested because they did an online grocery pickup or the friend of a friend of a friend tested positive your baseline becomes less valuable.

 

[Gumby]

My point is if you start testing people who just "want" to get tested instead of people with symptoms or people in contact with positive tested contacts aren't you just totally skewing the % of positives per day.. just because someone wants to get tested because they did an online grocery pickup or the friend of a friend of a friend tested positive your baseline becomes less valuable.

I guess it depends on how you want to use the data. If you wanted to know the true baseline incidence of the disease in the population, you would randomly sample. Sampling only those with symptoms or who have been in contact with a person who tested positive would skew the rate of infection higher than it really is in the population.

I have always thought trace and test as a strategy to stop the spread of the infection - those who are traced and test positive are isolated, thereby stopping them from spreading it further - rather than a means to determine the true rate of infection.

 

[ivinsfan]

I guess it depends on how you want to use the data. If you wanted to know the true baseline incidence of the disease in the population, you would randomly sample. Sampling only those with symptoms or who have been in contact with a person who tested positive would skew the rate of infection higher than it really is in the population.

I have always thought trace and test as a strategy to stop the spread of the infection - those who are traced and test positive are isolated, thereby stopping them from spreading it further - rather than a means to determine the true rate of infection.

They didn't start with random sampling, they started who were feeling ill, I think switching midstream might muddy the waters for ongoing monitoring ... in our state MN they tested several meat packing plants and the % of total positive tests skyrocketed...in those counties, in all the other counties the trend is downward. Just interesting there are so many ways to look at data.

 

[harllee]

Just saw on the news that a Church in California had an illegal Church service on Mother's Day in violation of the Governors order. The next day someone in attendance at the service tested positive for Covid-19 and now all 180 (!!) people in attendance have to be tracked down and tested. What were these people thinking? I think this Church should have to pay for the tracing and testing in addition to whatever fine is imposed for opening illegally.

 

[Whisper66]

Just saw on the news that a Church in California had an illegal Church service ..... What were these people thinking? ......

My pure guess is they were thinking about their freedoms of religion and of assembly as they met with their church family. Things many don't seem to hold in much regard right now. As states open up, expect more of these breakouts of the virus .... even at "legal" gatherings.

 

[Gumby]

Two observations: 1) A long line of Supreme Court cases has established that the the free exercise of religion and freedom of assembly protections of the First Amendment are not absolute; and 2) in any event, the First Amendment protects you against the government, not against viruses.

 

[audreyh1]

My pure guess is they were thinking about their freedoms of religion and of assembly as they met with their church family. Things many don't seem to hold in much regard right now. As states open up, expect more of these breakouts of the virus .... even at "legal" gatherings.

They weren't really thinking about how a whole bunch of people might get exposed if one or more asymptomatic contagious people joined the gathering.

 

[Whisper66]

They weren't really thinking about how a whole bunch of people might get exposed if one or more asymptomatic contagious people joined the gathering.

Maybe they simply chose to accept that risk. Eventually, as states open, this will be a choice all will need to consider. The virus won’t be gone just because states decide it’s time to open things up, just hopefully risk will be a bit lowered.

 

[Whisper66]

Two observations: 1) A long line of Supreme Court cases has established that the the free exercise of religion and freedom of assembly protections of the First Amendment are not absolute; and 2) in any event, the First Amendment protects you against the government, not against viruses.

(1) Yes. And I suppose now courts are being asked to weigh in on how absolute government power can be in restricting these rights. Ex: recent cases in Washington or Oregon or California are some.
(2) Of course.

 

[martyp]

For those of you in America. I'm living in Thailand and they have started to open the economy with a contact tracing app. If you want to enter a mall or business you scan a QR code. The first time you do this you register your phone number. After that it is very quick. They ask you to scan another QR code to check out. This brings you to a survey page where you can report if the location does not have hand sanitizer or is practicing social distancing.

Given the resistance in the US to being required to wear a mask when entering a store I'm sure something like this would make some people crazy. The only resistance I see here is from westerners. Here or there though I think the number of resisters is small.

Thailand clearly had a plan a while ago about re-opening up their economy.

 

[ivinsfan]

For those of you in America. I'm living in Thailand and they have started to open the economy with a contact tracing app. If you want to enter a mall or business you scan a QR code. The first time you do this you register your phone number. After that it is very quick. They ask you to scan another QR code to check out. This brings you to a survey page where you can report if the location does not have hand sanitizer or is practicing social distancing.

Given the resistance in the US to being required to wear a mask when entering a store I'm sure something like this would make some people crazy. The only resistance I see here is from westerners. Here or there though I think the number of resisters is small.

Thailand clearly had a plan a while ago about re-opening up their economy.

So it's voluntary or mandatory? they want to track your every step and then turn you into a mini snitch....no thanks. What do they actually plan to do you with this record of all your movements..

 

[martyp]

So it's voluntary or mandatory? they want to track your every step and then turn you into a mini snitch....no thanks. What do they actually plan to do you with this record of all your movements..

It is what they ask you to do if you want to enter a commercial building. It is the ame as if your grocery store required you to wear a mask to enter the store. They ask for your phone number. For most people that is not a secret. And most people know that businesses and government are already tracking you in more ways than you can count. I am not saying that is good but it is the world we are living in.

If you want contact tracing then they have to be able to find snd contact you. You can chose to make that easy or difficult. If you want to know if you have been exposed then this is a good way to determine if you were at the location before or after the infected person. It helps eliminate a kot of people who were not actually exposed. If you went to that location at 10am and the infected person was there at 4pm then you are in the clear.

The virus is here to stay. Contact tracing is the only way to slow the spread of infection. At least for now. There is more justification to open the economy earlier and more widely if you have a credible contact tracing program.

 

[bmcgonig]

It is what they ask you to do if you want to enter a commercial building. It is the ame as if your grocery store required you to wear a mask to enter the store. They ask for your phone number. For most people that is not a secret. And most people know that businesses and government are already tracking you in more ways than you can count. I am not saying that is good but it is the world we are living in.

If you want contact tracing then they have to be able to find snd contact you. You can chose to make that easy or difficult. If you want to know if you have been exposed then this is a good way to determine if you were at the location before or after the infected person. It helps eliminate a kot of people who were not actually exposed. If you went to that location at 10am and the infected person was there at 4pm then you are in the clear.

The virus is here to stay. Contact tracing is the only way to slow the spread of infection. At least for now. There is more justification to open the economy earlier and more widely if you have a credible contact tracing program.

I kinda like the way the Thai Gov are handling it. Kudos to them.

 

[Leo1277]

I kinda like the way the Thai Gov are handling it. Kudos to them.

I tend to agree, and it is also fairly simple to implement. Also, the way I understood martyp's post, you only have to give your data if you actively want to enter somewhere; if you don't enter, your data stay with you, so it's different from the various phone tracking apps etc where you are continuously revealing where you are (anonymously or not). That seems to me to be a pretty fair bargain - you want something, you give something. And if you really don't want to share your data, you can make that choice by not entering the restaurant.

 

[CardsFan]

I tend to agree, and it is also fairly simple to implement. Also, the way I understood the post, you only have to give your data if you actively want to enter somewhere; if you don't do that, your data stay with you, so it's different from the various phone tracking apps etc where you are continuously revealing where you are (anonymously or not). That seems to me to be a pretty fair bargain - you want something, you give something. And if you really don't want to share your data, you can make that choice by not entering the restaurant.

I would say it is fairly simple to implement in a country that is accustomed to a fairly authoritarian government.

By this standard I MUST have a cell phone, and MUST have it with me at all times, if I want to go shopping, eating, or inside any enclosed area?

WADR, I don't see that happening here.

 

[brewer12345]

I would say it is fairly simple to implement in a country that is accustomed to a fairly authoritarian government.

By this standard I MUST have a cell phone, and MUST have it with me at all times, if I want to go shopping, eating, or inside any enclosed area?

WADR, I don't see that happening here.

I certainly wouldn't put up with that crap.

 

[Leo1277]

I would say it is fairly simple to implement in a country that is accustomed to a fairly authoritarian government.

By this standard I MUST have a cell phone, and MUST have it with me at all times, if I want to go shopping, eating, or inside any enclosed area?

WADR, I don't see that happening here.

That's true, it's like taking your credit card when you go out. I suppose not too many pay cash at a restaurant anymore (and draw that stare of suspicion from all bystanders?).

 

[harllee]

We can't even get people in the US to wear facemarks. I think tracking is a good idea personally but we have a large segment of the population who won't do anything that the government asks them to do. I remember the outcry when seatbelts were made mandatory.

 

[MuirWannabe]

We can't even get people in the US to wear facemarks. I think tracking is a good idea personally but we have a large segment of the population who won't do anything that the government asks them to do. I remember the outcry when seatbelts were made mandatory.

And apparently some who are ready to do anything the government asks.

 

[RAE]

I would say it is fairly simple to implement in a country that is accustomed to a fairly authoritarian government.

By this standard I MUST have a cell phone, and MUST have it with me at all times, if I want to go shopping, eating, or inside any enclosed area?

WADR, I don't see that happening here.

Heck, I rarely take my cell phone with me when I leave the house, and I don't plan to change anytime soon. I do not want to be tethered to any device. I have friends who don't even own cell phones, even though they could easily afford one, and I understand that. If it gets to the point where I have to have my cell phone with me to go to a restaurant, I probably will just decline to go there.

 

[fh2000]

Heck, I rarely take my cell phone with me when I leave the house, and I don't plan to change anytime soon. I do not want to be tethered to any device. I have friends who don't even own cell phones, even though they could easily afford one, and I understand that. If it gets to the point where I have to have my cell phone with me to go to a restaurant, I probably will just decline to go there.

In Asian countries, cellphone penetration is almost 100%. In US, it is 72% in 2020. Rising slowly.

In China, almost everyone uses cellphone to do mobile payment. They just scan the vendor's QR code with no direct contact of anything. No one carries cash, credit card, ATM card.

Cellphone is the extension of their body. It is still an luxury item to some people in US. Somethings are simply not easy to do in US.

 

[Chuckanut]

In China, almost everyone uses cellphone to do mobile payment. They just scan the vendor's QR code with no direct contact of anything. No one carries cash, credit card, ATM card.

Other countries are far advance compared to America when it comes to payment systems. The chip-n-pin credit card is a great example. And tap to pay credit cards are another example. I used them over a year ago in Eastern Europe with great success. Here, the tap terminal is still rare, though it is growing.

I have heard that if one pays cash in China, it holds up the already long lines, and is an even worse time hog if the seller has to make change. Paying via the smart-phone is one scan/tap and it's done.