Thoughts on where the S&P will be 12/31/2018

[NYEXPAT]

Yes, that would make it a bear market.

And the decade-long bull market will be declared dead.

Long live the bull market.

With 50% of the stocks already in a bear market, JP Morgan is calling it a "rolling bear market". Also, have stated that this is a cyclical bear within the secular bull and the bottom should be 2450.

 

[NYEXPAT]

I think the Fed would show mercy, and stop.

It's not because we have high unemployment at that point or a lower inflation, because these things take time to develop. Rather, the Fed does look at the stock market as a leading indicator.

Inflation rates are back under Fed target of 2%. Fed, stated today or yesterday that they are "data driven" and have no preconceived notions on where interest rates should be at this point of the cycle. If they are worried about the market it would only take one speech by Powell to turn it around, but he would have to wait until the elections are over to do it.

 

[Free bird]

So a rolling near means the bear is playful & not riled?

 

[timo2]

With 50% of the stocks already in a bear market, JP Morgan is calling it a "rolling bear market". .

I'm thinking more of a 'stumbling bear market'

 

[Free bird]

Getting all scientific aren't ya?

 

[NW-Bound]

With 50% of the stocks already in a bear market, JP Morgan is calling it a "rolling bear market". Also, have stated that this is a cyclical bear within the secular bull and the bottom should be 2450.

Yes, taking the 20%-down criteria as being in a bear market then many stocks meet that already.

Why, so many are on my Quicken screen right now. It just hurts, looking at them, all the red numbers.

 

[target2019]

More like bear is on oxy, and won't get up to acknowledge the bear market.

 

[Free bird]

JP Morgan has their guess at 2450. How about GS? Since they do Gods work they should have a good guess.

 

[Chuckanut]

S&P 500 will close at 2,782 on 12/31/18.

My belief based upon my history of stunning failures at predicting the market.

 

[flintnational]

I'll play and my odds of being right are better than winning the lottery!
2440 on 12/31/18.

 

[SecondCor521]

With 50% of the stocks already in a bear market, JP Morgan is calling it a "rolling bear market". Also, have stated that this is a cyclical bear within the secular bull and the bottom should be 2450.

I'm not picking on you, NYEXPAT, but I wonder the significance of this new way of looking at a bear market by looking at individual stocks. As far as I can recall, people talking about bear markets and corrections in the past have always referred to the main indexes.

In a similar vein, I've noticed that the statistics that get reported on varies over time. Sometimes we talk a lot about the Case Shiller housing index, sometimes we don't. Sometimes we talk about the price of a barrel of oil, sometimes we don't. Similarly with the 10 minus 2's, mortgage rates, the yield curve, inflation, the price of gold, the trade deficit, the budget deficit, the value of the dollar against other currencies, etc.

It would make sense if the prominence of the discussions of these various indicators aligned with interesting story lines about, or movements of, these indicators. But the more I watch, the more it seems to be more or less random guessing by the financial talking heads about what might be important soon, and they're not very good guessers.

 

[NW-Bound]

I'm not picking on you, NYEXPAT, but I wonder the significance of this new way of looking at a bear market by looking at individual stocks. As far as I can recall, people talking about bear markets and corrections in the past have always referred to the main indexes...

The health of the market is revealed more in seeing how many stocks are down. It is similar to looking at the median income or net worth, compared to looking at the average values, where a few ultra-billionaires like Bill Gates or Buffett can cancel out millions of homeless people.

The so-called "breadth of the market" is important for that reason. When only a few megacaps like Amazon, Apple, and Google boost up the index while the majority of stocks linger in the dust, it's not a healthy sign. A good economy needs all businesses to participate. Else, we would have one of the bubbles like dot-coms again.

 

[target2019]

Best way to get a sense of where this is going is to try out the various periods on this heat map.
https://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec&st=w52
Indicator like forward P/E is not so healthy...

 

[NYEXPAT]

Put me down for 2400 - 12/31/2018
2760 - 12/31/2019

I hoping whoever said 2500 wins!