When will the restrictions be lifted?

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Bestwifeever said:
I had read earlier that one of the reasons we are at risk for Covid-19 at 60 plus is that our bone marrow is aging in spite of ourselves--one of those sneaky aging things we cannot control. So yes, 60 would likely be a cutoff age. It would be less disheartening to see an age number given vs using the term "elderly" as I'll never consider myself as elderly :LOL:
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Same here at 60 y.o.:)
 
Midpack said:
Bottom line is the elderly are going to have to take some responsibility in making their own decisions regarding their individual risks and therefore how much exposure they're willing to take on - if at all before there's a proven vaccine. And the vaccine may not be 100% effective.
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This is pretty already true of most diseases, like the flu. After all, when you get older, your body is just more susceptible. In general, the older you get, the more you have to face these type of risk decisions.
 
JustCurious said:
When do you think the coronavirus restrictions will be lifted in your area? To be specific, I am asking for your prediction for when the earlier of the following two dates will occur:

1) There are no longer any stay at home orders that apply to you in your state or local jurisdiction, or

2) You can go to a full service restaurant in your area and sit down and eat inside.

I predict June 15, 2020.
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I predict August 31st.

Our governor says that Louisiana won't be among the first states to reopen and relax the lockdown.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_r...cle_3d38876e-8028-11ea-b510-f3bf532cff1d.html

He says that by May 1st we may be in a better position to think about it, but it is expected that we will remain in lockdown at least until June. We were one of the first states to implement lockdown and the longer it lasts, the harder it is on all of us.

(sigh) :-[ Like all politicians, I get the feeling he is "stringing us along" but really that is his job. If he told us a realistic specific date (like September 1st or something) people would give him the finger and ignore the lockdown so he can't really do that. But hey, May 1st sounds more do-able, and maybe..... :LOL:

Meanwhile, JazzFest, French Quarter Fest, EssenceFest, Southern Decadence, and all the other giant festivals that are the foundation of our economy here in New Orleans, are cancelled for the rest of 2020. People in the hospitality industry and musicians and artists in the "gig economy" are really hurting so thank goodness for the various federal and state aid programs.

BUT - - - Due to our strict adherence to lockdown requirements, we have apparently "flattened the curve" (meaning that our daily total of new coronavirus cases could be stabilizing and not increasing so much, maybe?) so at least we might be making some progress.
 
W2R said:
People in the hospitality industry and musicians and artists in the "gig economy" are really hurting
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Anyone who's in the general "entertainment" world needs to think long and hard about getting some temporary work. A few of these folks are quite well off, but most barely get by. These jobs will be the very last to come back.

On the other hand, lots of retail should open up quickly - with restrictions like limited numbers of people in a store, masks, special sanitation regimens, maybe even temperature taking (not fool proof, but there is little downside to keeping people with a fever out).

Heck, contactless payments should be required to be offered too.

No one will make people go to these stores, but many people will.
 
I predict Florida will slowly start to open up May.1 with restaurants opening up a month later . Our favorite restaurant is already remodeling to make distancing happen .I will still avoid crowds, only go to restaurants occasionally and wear a mask when going out until the virus has died down or we have a cure .
 
We have minimal testing locally, so who knows? A better question might be how long after the opening up will lockdowns redstart due to the second wave?
 
I predict 6/1. All our festivals for the summer are cancelled. Reno depends on them. Burning man cancelled for August which is a 61 million dollar loss.
 
I really have no idea when we will see a 14 day period of declining rates of infections. But I’ll go on a limb and suggest that things will start opening up about 14 days after that happens.

And I’ll take another educated guess and say that every state is going to be different in their experience with a 14 day rate of decline, so whatever guess I might make for California will have no bearing on any other state.

I don’t see restaurants in California serving dine in meals at full capacity for a long time. And I don’t see large gatherings like sporting events or concerts happening any time in 2020.

What I have the least clarity on is when hair stylists, massage therapists and pedicurists will be able to reopen their businesses, as well as when the public will feel comfortable using those services again.
 
brewer12345 said:
We have minimal testing locally, so who knows? A better question might be how long after the opening up will lockdowns redstart due to the second wave?
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Yes, I agree, Brewer. There will probably be a gradual phase-out of restrictions in many states starting in May, but since we are likely nowhere close to "herd immunity" for the country as a whole, it's a good bet that there will be a second wave, maybe around mid-late summer or so. The virus will keep seeking new hosts, and if people start congregating again, it will undoubtedly start to spread again. A lot depends on how cautious people are, even after restrictions start to be lifted. The more cautious, the more the "second-wave curve" can be flattened. But ultimately, this virus is going to be with us until we get to herd immunity, or until an effective vaccine is developed. And then there is the issue of how long immunity actually lasts, which is a whole seperate topic........
 
Here's a plan by J.P.Morgan which looks interesting, more targeted than what others are suggesting https://markets.jpmorgan.com/research/email/-9ovokf4/6P7NFgmiolotx-biD-kR1g/GPS-3334428-0

The conclusion
If restrictions were eased on all individuals aged below 60, and without any relevant co-morbidities, and if those above 60, and those with relevant co-morbidities, continued with the limits on free movement that are currently in place, then the public authorities can limit pressure on healthcare systems and deaths while allowing significant parts of the economy and social system to quickly return to something closer to normality. Importantly, age- and morbidity-related restrictions would allow a rapid return of economic activity and a rapid buildup of herd immunity among the young. This may ultimately protect the old, and those with morbidities, more quickly than the arrival of a vaccine. This strikes us as a pretty good second-best policy in the absence of an ability to test widely. It is not perfect, but it may be the least bad outcome.
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Here's a blogpost by Tyler Cowan critical of the assumption that the results of social distancing are an acceptable criteria to begin opening. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/04/social-distancing-is-working-so-well.html
 
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I have been predicting that May/June will be transition months. I don't believe that all the current restrictions in place here in Michigan will continue into May.
 
Yes, this is true. The thing about this time is, if somebody comes down with COVID-19, I fully expect people to blame the victim instead of extending sympathies. "Hmph! After all, you're 70! You should have done a better job of protecting yourself!"

jollystomper said:
This is pretty already true of most diseases, like the flu. After all, when you get older, your body is just more susceptible. In general, the older you get, the more you have to face these type of risk decisions.
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gauss said:
I have been predicting that May/June will be transition months. I don't believe that all the current restrictions in place here in Michigan will continue into May.
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I also live in Michigan, and I agree. The restrictions on things like garden center plant sales, and motorboating, will almost certainly have to be lifted by mid-May, IMO, if not a little earlier. Maybe golfing also (I see that Wisconsin is lifting the prohibition on golfing soon, although golfers will still have to follow certain rules, like no golf carts for one). And restrictions on other things like construction/landscaping/lawn maintenance work will probably be lifted fairly soon in Michigan as well. Things involving large gatherings of people will probably be restricted for much longer (sports events, cinema/theater, music shows, etc).
 
Chuckanut said:
IMHO, his death deserved its own thread, much more so than the death of various celebrities who have contributed far less to my life.
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Exactly. +1000 or whatever represents his contribution. Sorry I missed the initial posts.
 
There are a few states now (Michigan included) that have restricted non-essential items from being sold in stores like Costco and Target. That seems really excessive to me. Fortunately we don’t have to deal with that in California. I can understand all the protests taking place. It must be extremely frustrating, especially if they have something in stock that you really need and you can’t add it to your basket before checking out. I don’t get what they were thinking there.
 
Moemg said:
I predict Florida will slowly start to open up May.1 with restaurants opening up a month later . Our favorite restaurant is already remodeling to make distancing happen .I will still avoid crowds, only go to restaurants occasionally and wear a mask when going out until the virus has died down or we have a cure .
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I agree with this. However for me, I will continue to wear a mask and social distance until there is either a cure or a vaccine. I'm retired, I have that option :cool:
 
Texas is starting to open up Monday . True story ......last August we were in the airport in Dublin Ireland waiting to get back to Amsterdam . We started talking to a lady and her mother from Australia . The lady was doing a bucket trip/ business trip with her mother. They were on their way to Madrid for a conference. I asked her what type of conference . She told us she was with the Australian infectious and disease control. She seemed pretty smart talking way above my head . But something she said stuck with me . When we were leaving she said when you go home get your flu shot . We told her we always do . She said again get your flu shot it is going to be a bad flu season for the states. I asked her how she knew she said Australia was just coming off the worst flu season since they started recording And what happens in Australia normally follows to the States. She told us less then 40% of U S get the flu shot . Just interesting
 
W2R said:
I predict August 31st.]
(sigh) :-[ Like all politicians, I get the feeling he is "stringing us along" but really that is his job. If he told us a realistic specific date (like September 1st or something) people would give him the finger and ignore the lockdown so he can't really do that. But hey, May 1st sounds more do-able, and maybe..... :LOL:
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We all know politicians lie but this is the first time I have seen someone say it's their job to lie.
 
Breedlove said:
Texas is starting to open up Monday . True story ......last August we were in the airport in Dublin Ireland waiting to get back to Amsterdam . We started talking to a lady and her mother from Australia . The lady was doing a bucket trip/ business trip with her mother. They were on their way to Madrid for a conference. I asked her what type of conference . She told us she was with the Australian infectious and disease control. She seemed pretty smart talking way above my head . But something she said stuck with me . When we were leaving she said when you go home get your flu shot . We told her we always do . She said again get your flu shot it is going to be a bad flu season for the states. I asked her how she knew she said Australia was just coming off the worst flu season since they started recording And what happens in Australia normally follows to the States. She told us less then 40% of U S get the flu shot . Just interesting
Click to expand...

We probably dodged a bad flu season due to the isolation rules for Covid-19. A silver lining... :)
 
Looks like Florida will be the guinea pig. The Jacksonsville Mayor has already "partially" lifted restrictions for the beaches, but saying that people can't crowd, sit, can't have coolers, etc. People are supposed to be using the beach only for exercise. However, that didn't happen - people are crowding onto the beach. There are reports of coolers, and that will be ever more prevalent. I doubt he will be able to close the beaches again.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/gov...me-florida-beaches-green-light-to-reopen.html

And in the meantime, on the same day, Florida recorded its biggest increase in new cases:
https://www.news4jax.com/news/flori...-coronavirus-cases-top-24000-deaths-near-700/

And Florida has many urban concentrations retirees and people over 70, so - Florida has offered itself as the guinea pig. We shall see.

I may start a new thread on how to protect oneself during a transition and the transitions' other side effects. Florida will be a useful state to watch.
 
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