Where are we going?

[greg]

So, in 2025, what will our country be like? How will it be different from today? The economy? Social Security? How/what will our children think? Toys? Interests? Healthcare? __________?

 

[MasterBlaster]

2025 (paraprasing Dickens) will be the best of times and the worst of times.

 

[TromboneAl]

In 2025 the government will announce that we have to prepare for the bird flu.

 

[moghopper]

In 2025 the government will announce that we have to prepare for the bird flu.

But we'll be spending all our money to save those who lost their California homes in the latest mudslide/wildfire/earthquake.

 

[Nords]

So, in 2025, what will our country be like?

I'm STILL waiting for the commuter jet cars and the "too cheap to meter" electricity that we were promised in the '50s.

I bet that
- China will be wowing investors for its growth potential (still unfilled after three decades of hype),
- the U.S. national debt will make today's debt look like pennies,
- gas will be twice as expensive but fuel cells still won't be quite ready for mass production,
- nanotech is almost but not quite poised to help the fuel-cell industry take off,
- Social Security will still be on the brink of failure liquidity failure liquidity I give up,
- Medicare will be on the brink of... never mind,
- Ben Bernanke will still be in charge of the Fed and people will wistfully remember when Alan Greenspan really had a handle on running the place,
- G.W. Bush will be America's elder statesman,
- Clinton will be the elder lecher,
- President Clinton will issue a press release expressing dismay at her father's antics,
- Our 30-something kids will appreciate our sheer genius of their teenage years and will thank us for it every time they e-mail us,
- I'll still be surfing & doing yardwork, and
- Henry Blodget will still be writing articles about Internet stocks.

 

[greg]

If I straight line things out twenty years, I see a pretty good world. But I still believe we need to go thru a significant 3-5 year economic dip to straighten us up a bit—and get rid of a huge amount of debt (Did I hear lots of foreclosures and reduced pensions for gov’t workers?)

*Service and necessity costs will rise significantly, taking up an ever larger portion of our incomes. Goods will be cheap, but if the income goes elsewhere . . . .

*Families (three generations living together) will get closer, initially out of necessity, but they will stay together because it’s actually enjoyable and useful—and it keeps the 5 bedroom McMansions fully utilized.

*A lake home will be cheap for retirees if they can afford the gas to visit town once or twice/wk. and the heating/cooling bills.

*High taxes will influence who and how many in the family work, although everyone will have chores. More part-time jobs will be available. 30 hours/wk will be considered a typical, full-time job.

*We will have a basic national healthcare plan, with a higher fee structure charged to people who don’t behave themselves.

*Half the fast food joints in the country will disappear (that’s good); the other half will serve better food (that’s even better). A fat tax will be imposed on all junk food.

*Genetically altered food will be found to be very bad for everyone—even cows.

*Democrats AND Republicans will disappear from the face of the earth (except as comic strip characters). GWB will be perceived--by all--as the worst president in the history of the USA.

*China will still be working on infrastructure problems.

*Greg will be living in a commune in Iowa, with a pond. DW will go on a road trip with her 200 mpg scooter every summer to go dancing with HaHa just to get away from the animals. No dipping HaHa!

* Martha will decide that forty years of effort to train Greg just wasn’t worth it. She gives up all training tactics and accepts him as he is; and bliss comes to the household.

--Greg

 

[moghopper]

If I straight line things out twenty years, I see a pretty good world. But I still believe we need to go thru a significant 3-5 year economic dip to straighten us up a bit—and get rid of a huge amount of debt (Did I hear lots of foreclosures and reduced pensions for gov’t workers?)

What? No permanent world collapse? You're a long term bull?

dizzy... must sit...

 

[wildcat]

We will be ruled by Apes instead of the Chinese

 

[wabmester]

We will be ruled by Apes....

And how is that different from today?

http://www.bushorchimp.com/

 

[wildcat]

Wabster just made my day

 

[greg]

What? No permanent world collapse? You're a long term bull?

dizzy... must sit...

I really think that the sooner we get our irrational attitude toward debt (plus the actual debt) behind us, then the sooner life gets much better. It's mainly a psychological thingie. Everybody with 'irrational debt' needs to get whacked on the forehead with a 2x4 6x6. On the other hand, inflation really could send us into a tailspin.

So, who in a rational world would think that guns, butter, and lower taxes could solve all our problems? My guess: a debt demon, someone who has a zero understanding of the corrosive effect of excessive debt, has no understanding of business (except shaking hands at baseball games), but knows what people want to hear. This includes virtually everyone in Congress too. And I vooted for a couple of those idiots myself--which tells me something about myself that I don't like to know.

--Greg

 

[ProfHaroldHill]

Apoc -- you may well be right about the outcome, but I don't see the same trends at play.

In my view, the US is following the Roman model, going from republic, where domestic issues matter, to an empire, where they don't.  Concenration of wealth is an indicator.  While Nero fiddled, about 2000 people literally owned the resources of the Roman empire.  We're not there yet, but we seem to be headed straight in that direction.

More on topic -- when I graduated from high school, the norm for the middle class was more-or-less secure employment, defined-benefit pensions, and early-retiree health care.  Now, thanks to men like Neutron Jack Welch at GE and Lootin' Lou Gerstner at IBM, the deal is quite different.  OTOH, Neut and Loot came away with about a billion dollars each.

Lots of other things -- the squeeze on the middle class for health care, housing, and college tuition, the rise of religious fundamentalism, multi-lingualism, and so forth.

So . . . I see a real possibility that the US will increasingly have the ambiance of a third world country, but one that is armed to the teeth.

This can be turned around.  But I don't see anything on the horizon suggesting that it will.

HH

 

[Glo]

I believe Chinese will be our first language!

 

[wabmester]

the US is following the Roman model

Cool! When do we start wearing togas? (Oh, wait. That was in the 80's.)

I think you're extrapolating things as if Bush stays in power through 2025. Ain't gonna happen. We're already starting to see the pendulum swing. Hey, oil companies, can you share some of that profit with us poor folk? Next, taxes will go up. Social programs will be fully funded, and we'll get a bunch of new benefits.

In 2025, the US will become France.

 

[riskadverse]

A gallon of gas will cost you $10.00
A gallon of milk will cost you $7.00
A 2 bed 2 bath house will cost you $3M
A cheap car will cost you $120K
A mid level manager will make $350K /yr.
Gold will be worth $3000 / oz.
Most retirees will live on social security and welfare. 
The US will be fighting some limited war for some obscure reason. 
Inflation will still officially be 2%
There will be a growing underground trading economy separate from your government controlled asset / liability account. 

 

[ProfHaroldHill]

In 2025, the US will become France.

Maybe we'll be able to get Citroens again  

HH

 

[moghopper]

irrational attitude

Who is the arbiter of rationality? Or is the position currently open?

 

[JPatrick]

A nuclear device will be dropped on someone, though not the US.  Our military will be smaller but armed will gee whiz futuristic weapons you wouldn't believe.

All the crap being made by China will have passed to India and then to a third world country that may not even have a name yet.

India will be handling many lawyer functions and some medical.

Political turmoil in China will slow their ascent to world domination.

After some really bad times, the Middle East countries will realize they need us more than we need them.

We will regain our manufacturing foothold as people realize you can't expect to get rich making widgets, unless of course  you own the widget plant and it sells to China.

The sins of our out of control immigration will have been evident for years.

International pharma companies will colaborate to produce a new crop of wonder drugs.. The lawyers will have been reined in as part of a national health care program.

Florida, Texas, and California will be undesirable places to live, due in part to global warming issues and  rampant crime.

JPatrick will become wealthy in Branson MO, by finding a way to attract thousands, nay millions, of new tourists by convincing them "it's not just for Hee Haw anymore".

The US will still be the greatest country on earth- - only the reasons will change.

 

[greg]

Apoc --

This can be turned around. But I don't see anything on the horizon suggesting that it will.

HH

HH--That's because I haven't explained ALL the consequences of getting hit by a 6x6. All we have to get rid of is the "this debt party can go on forever" attitude, and humankind's natural goodness shines forth. Whack on the head, then reconnect the dots correctly while the patient is still in a daze. Easy as pie.

--Greg

 

[greg]

The US will still be the greatest country on earth- - only the reasons will change.

I like that in a crazy person, rationality

--Greg

 

[ProfHaroldHill]

Who is the arbiter of rationality?  Or is the position currently open?

Outsourced to Bangalore . . .

HH

 

[sgeeeee]

Cool!   When do we start wearing togas?  . . .

More importantly, when do we start feeding Christian fundamentalists to the lions?

 

[sgeeeee]

HH--That's because I haven't explained ALL the consequences of getting hit by a 6x6.  All we have to get rid of is the "this debt party can go on forever" attitude, and  humankind's natural goodness shines forth.  Whack on the head, then reconnect the dots correctly while the patient is still in a daze.  Easy as pie. 

--Greg

While I admire your 6x6 solution to the current problem, I would like to make a suggestion. 2x4's -- or even baseball bats -- are easier to swing and probably accomplish the same thing. Why should those who have to swing the instument of correction suffer too?

 

[greg]

While I admire your 6x6 solution to the current problem, I would like to make a suggestion. 2x4's -- or even baseball bats -- are easier to swing and probably accomplish the same thing. Why should those who have to swing the instument of correction suffer too?

6x6s are easier to see coming and move slower, kinda like the economy in motion. It gives plenty of a few people time to duck--if they're not pre-occupied by conspicuous consumption.

--Greg

 

[greg]

Who is the arbiter of rationality? Or is the position currently open?

This position is currently held by GWB, our fearless and wise beyond his years (elected) leader.

My first thought last nite was to respond, "Irrationality, it's like pornography, you know it when you see it." But that would be wrong, although my simple arbitration system uses the percentage system: Plato, 100% rational; the Bible, 99% rational if 'correctly' interpreted; TV commercials 10%-20% rational; politics 5% rational at this point in time. So, I'm back to my self-inflicted tautological world again. I do think it's important to 'parse out' the good and bad in each of our experiences (see the conspicuous consumption thread for some healthy examples). Bla, bla, bla.

--Greg