Why not drive a Tesla?

[Whisper66]

Really good discussion about Tesla. Made me go look up some real life Tesla experiences relative to a couple things that interested me.

The following video (link) is from a fellow that loves his Tesla and provides real world experience with a 6 hr roadtrip with his son. The issues he runs into don't turn him off of Tesla, but do show real life experience with a long day trip when not all goes right. Issues: (1) Ends up taking around 7.5 hrs due to multiple required charging stops. (2) Has to limit his speed to below the speed limit during a part of the trip to keep his battery life reasonable. (3) Has to wait in line for a charging station at one place (4) apparently gets to eat at McDonalds a bunch (limited food places near charging stations (5) decided to rent Uber during part of trip while his Tesla is charging rather than waiting around for his car.

He made another video (link) showing his experience after leaving his Tesla at the airport during a several day trip. Apparently (1) they lose a small amount of charge each day just sitting there which caused his battery to die (2) had to have Tesla approved tow truck driver tow him to a charging station (his house)....couldn't just jump start it like a ICE car. Again, he loves his Tesla but pointing out some real life experiences of his.

Here's one that really surprized me. Apparently Tesla doesn't always own the parking spaces where the chargers are located (makes sense when I think about it). Some owners allow ICE cars to use the spaces at times which blocks Teslas from getting to their "fuel". Ugh.

All this real life experience just shows is that you need to plan your life / travel more if you have a Tesla than if you use an ICE. If you love the car, I suppose it may be worth it.

Edit: sorry for the link pictures....thought they'd just end up a hotlink but don't know how to change it.

 

[Texas Proud]

Thanks for the welcome!

I only made this claim for my situation in my location at the time (Summer 2012). I never claimed nor guaranteed it applies for everyone at any location. I considered at a Honda/Toyota/Chrysler minivan, and only briefly considered a Jeep Grand Cherokee. I'm going to try to keep a friendly, non-defensive tone, but for fun, I'll entertain your challenge to show I'm not spewing garbage to artificially make a "bogus" point. I actually had detailed spreadsheets that I tweaked and agonized over for months before making the decision.

For me, these were the variables:

$4.00/gal for gas (Conservative because at the time, it was $4.50 in the Bay Area and was above $4 since 2010. Fluctuates a lot -- had to pick a number.)
Electricity at home is $0.10/kWh (Conservative because it's only $0.08/kWh at work, and a small percentage would be free at public stations and Superchargers)
Annual mileage is 22,000 miles (Conservative because we're closer to 25,000 for most years)
Vehicle ownership is 10 years (Conservative for us. At the time, our newest car was 10 years old, the oldest was 12 years old. We eventually kept these cars until they were 12 and 14 years old. Would've been older if it weren't for the new electric cars replacing them)

So, taking these conservative estimates:

22,000 miles x 10 years = 220,000 miles
220,000 miles / 3.5 miles per kWh = 62,857 kWh
62,857 kWh x 10 cents per kWh = $6,287 in fuel cost over ten years

And taking your MPG experience from your Pilot:

22,000 miles x 10 years = 220,000 miles
220,000 miles / 20 miles per gallon = 11,000 gallons
11,000 gallons x $4 per gallon = $44,000 in fuel cost over ten years

Difference in fuel cost would be: $44,000 - $6,287 = $37,713 difference

According to Honda's website, base MSRP for all Pilot trim levels with no other options ranges from $30,745 to $47,220 (I don't know what year your car is, but your $35K fits in this range). Tesla Model S at introduction was $57,500 for the 40kWh, $10k more for the 60kWh, and another $10k more for the 85kWh -- No other options selected.

The cost of ownership of the Pilot + fuel would be in the range of $74,745 to $91,220

The cost of ownership of the Model S + fuel would be in the range of $63,787 to $83,787

These are rough, but conservative numbers. I admit that I didn't count things like oil changes, smog check, and other maintenance cost for the Pilot. I also didn't count things like the difference in sales tax at the time of purchase of the more expensive Tesla.

And what's even more compelling for my situation is that I haven't counted the incentives for the Tesla. Financially, it's $7,500 Federal tax credit, $2,500 California state rebate (check), and $500 PG&E clean energy Rebate. Also, single-occupancy HOV access means daily bridge toll savings of 50% ($2.50 per day) and time savings which is hard to put a price on. Subtract these, and you can see that at a high-level, in my use-case, the price of the highest-capacity battery Tesla approaches the cost of the lowest-priced Pilot.

A very important point is that the price of gas really fluctuates a lot, so I didn't have any delusions that this was ever going to be a real-world accurate projection of the price difference 10 years into the future. All other variables have held pretty true. I think gas prices have dropped a bit, but even so, it's not super-dramatic. I checked the history on Texas' average gas prices and it was around $3.50 from late-2010 to 2014. I think I would've come to similar (albeit slightly less favorable) conclusion had I done the math while living in Texas in 2012.


One more thing... I don't think you're purposely trying to mislead about the Pilot having "much more cargo room" than the Tesla Model S without any qualifications. I assume you're just making a blind assumption because the Tesla looks like a sleek sedan. In reality, it's more nuanced than that and it's worth explaining.

According to Honda's website, the Pilot claims 16.5 cu ft or 18.5 cu ft with all 3 rows of seats up (8-passengers). With 2 rows of seats up (4-passengers), that increases to 46.8 cu ft or 55.9 cu ft.. If you fold down the second row (2-passengers) this further increases to 83.9 cu ft or 109.0 cu ft.. I'm not sure why they give two numbers for each of these, do you know??

According to Tesla's website, Model S has 31.6 cu ft with all seats up (5-passenger). This is split between the trunk and frunk. If you fold the rear seats (2-passenger), the cargo volume increases to 58.1 cu ft. Mine has a more spacious frunk because I have the early RWD model with a larger frunk. I also have to qualify this claim because if you opt for the 3rd row child seats on the Model S, you lose cargo capacity in the rear footwell at all times. And if you deploy the 3rd row seats (7-passenger, two of which are kids), you essentially lose all of the rear cargo room, leaving only the frunk at about 5 cu ft.

My point is that it's not cut-and-dry that the Pilot has more cargo space. And isn't it amazing? The fact that cargo space of a sleek full-size sedan with Cd 0.24 is even worthwhile to compare to a full size SUV is a testament to how the electric drivetrain allows for more efficient design and packaging.

Thanks for the info.... an interesting analysis... thanks for posting it...

I forgot they had the lower batter option back then... not sure if they still do.... so for 200K miles it does look like it is a wash where you live... but not here...


Also, I would say that 46.8 (the lowest number) is much more than 31.6... that is almost 50% more cargo room..... and no, I do not know why it is different except the newer one is supposed to have more interior room... can you fit 38 carry on luggage in your Tesla? You can with the seats folded in the Pilot...

 

[cranberryjoe]

Nothing against electric cars. I like the idea and suspect I'll own one someday (though probably not a Tesla), once chargers are more universally available off the beaten paths. I live in the western US where the superchargers seem to force you to travel the interstates. After a road trip last year I looked up the locations of chargers from a couple of the electric car trip planning sites to see what our trip would have been like had we been in an electric car. What a boring route I would have had to take!

I hate the exterior styling of the Model S and X vehicles I see around town, and the photos I've seen of the interior don't particularly appeal to me. I could never see myself driving either of those vehicles. And the last thing I want is such a fast 0-60 time. I would end up with too many speeding tickets. I just need enough acceleration to pass somebody slower than me. :-D

 

[ken830]

Thanks for sharing your numbers, ken830. I don't drive nearly as many miles, so mine would be quite different. But as tim59 noted, it's not all about cost, it's the driving experience too.

Yeah. Right now, it doesn't make financial sense unless you drive a lot. That should change in the future.

One more thing I was wondering, what was the cost to set up charging at home? My understanding is that you should have a dedicated circuit at a minimum.

I actually got a separate meter, but I have an unfair advantage: My father is an electrician (self-employed), so almost free. I paid for the permit and inspection fees and probably paid for a few meals.

But no one needs a separate meter. A dedicated (50A for one car, 100A for two) circuit would be ideal. This will allow you to charge at the standard 10kW, which is fast enough for 0-100% charges overnight, which is something you'll likely never need to do. That doesn't cost too much in general. If you don't have enough space in your current breaker box, and/or if the main service is not near your garage, then it will cost more because an electrician will have to replace your service/box and/or run longer lines to reach your garage. But if your home is like a lot others, then it's just a matter of putting a new NEMA 14-50 outlet on it's own circuit. In fact, many homes probably already have a electric dryer outlet in the garage. If you don't have an electric dryer (or if you don't use it in the middle of the night while the car is charging), then you can use that to charge the car.

And as a last resort, if you don't have a dedicated circuit, you can also set a current limit in the car so that it won't draw too much. There's constant line monitoring -- if the car sees too much voltage sag (usually an indication of overdrawing), then it will automatically reduce power draw.

I was just thinking about how often I'd be impacted by the range. I just took a trip last week where I would have had to have parked in the more expensive airport garage with charging, or otherwise burn time at a supercharger. I suppose the fuel savings offset most or all of the parking increase, plus that garage is more convenient to the terminal, so I'll call that a wash.


My March trip was the same, and I don't know if the airport I used for that even has any chargers. Next week I'm doing a 6 hr drive with return, definitely impacted. I've got 2 fall trips, one of them longer, that would take significant adjustments. That's probably 15-20% of my driving miles that are either impacted, or for which I'd need a different car. It wouldn't be viable at all to replace any of this driving with flying. As noted, 2 of the trips are just to get to the airport.

Everyone's use case is different. California is definitely easier. But I think the rest of the country will eventually follow. Probably sooner than most people think. The last time I flew, I parked in the SFO parking lot in a prime parking space (where the chargers are) directly in front of the walkway to the terminal. Also, the charger was free. Just had to pay for parking.

And I do 6-7 semi-long distance trips each year here in California and rarely had any issues. I think soon, the Tesla business model of car design & charging network will be more and more compelling for the rest of the country.

 

[Texas Proud]

Ken830....

I was eating dinner and a thought hit me.... how long will the batteries last

Well, that is not something that I can find.... I did find this...

1) battery degrades everyday
2) battery degradation is non-linear over time; meaning it starts very very slow, but after 4-5 years, it gets faster
3) after the first 5 years, degradation may be as low as 5%. But by the 8th year, they expect about 30% degradation.


​

They did not say if there was a number of charges penalty on this, but I would suspect there is...


You might not make it to 10 years and/or 200,000 miles... and from what I can find on the internet (which is not easy either) it appears a new battery pack is around $20,000...

Now, when it comes time to replace yours you might get rid of the car and buy a new one.... but that means your car value might be zero....


Was looking a bit more and.... Another article said that once it gets to 70% they consider it 'bad'... so it could be 8 years.... but some comments say that it is good to 200,000 miles....


WOW.... lots of conflicting info.... I saw an article that says a 60Kwh is $12,000.... and that Tesla think it will be down to 70% at 100,000 miles...


How close are you to 100,000 miles I would think at 25K per year you are close or over...

 

[Ready]

But you also have to consider how much will a battery cost 8-10 years from now, since the batteries are technology driven and Tesla has been focused on getting the costs down significantly as part of the Model 3 launch.

 

[ken830]

Thanks for the info.... an interesting analysis... thanks for posting it...

I forgot they had the lower batter option back then... not sure if they still do.... so for 200K miles it does look like it is a wash where you live... but not here...


Also, I would say that 46.8 (the lowest number) is much more than 31.6... that is almost 50% more cargo room..... and no, I do not know why it is different except the newer one is supposed to have more interior room... can you fit 38 carry on luggage in your Tesla? You can with the seats folded in the Pilot...

Actually, 16.5 cu ft is the smallest number, but that's seating 8 passengers. The 46.8 cu ft is only 4 passengers. Not really fair to compare that to Tesla's
31.6 cu ft and 5 passenger. I guess you can reduce that to a 4-seater if you fold down the 40-split. But I'm sure that will significantly increase that cargo number into the 40's.

I think you should compare the maximum (2-passenger) scenario. In that case, yes, the Pilot has a lot more cargo volume. In all others, it's more nuanced.

The Pilot is essentially a giant cuboid-shaped cargo box, so fitting 38 smaller cuboid boxes inside is a bit of an artificial achievement that it is perfectly suited for. But you should Google some cargo carrying photos and videos for the Tesla. You'd be surprised. You could watch some of Bjorn's (https://www.youtube.com/user/bjornnyland) older videos where he is doing days-long trips carrying cargo all over Norway in his Model S in every weather imaginable.

 

[Texas Proud]

Actually, 16.5 cu ft is the smallest number, but that's seating 8 passengers. The 46.8 cu ft is only 4 passengers. Not really fair to compare that to Tesla's
31.6 cu ft and 5 passenger. I guess you can reduce that to a 4-seater if you fold down the 40-split. But I'm sure that will significantly increase that cargo number into the 40's.

I think you should compare the maximum (2-passenger) scenario. In that case, yes, the Pilot has a lot more cargo volume. In all others, it's more nuanced.

The Pilot is essentially a giant cuboid-shaped cargo box, so fitting 38 smaller cuboid boxes inside is a bit of an artificial achievement that it is perfectly suited for. But you should Google some cargo carrying photos and videos for the Tesla. You'd be surprised. You could watch some of Bjorn's (https://www.youtube.com/user/bjornnyland) older videos where he is doing days-long trips carrying cargo all over Norway in his Model S in every weather imaginable.

Yes, that is seating 8 passengers which the Tesla cannot do.... but I think that is more than a Tesla with max seating (the rear facing seats)....


The pilot is only 4 if you buy the captain chairs for the second row... we did not.. we have 5 seats with the 3rd row down... and I still say 50% more is a huge amount since car companies tout only 10% more cargo if they have it...

Also, I can put one extra seat up on the 3rd row and keep two down if I have another passenger and need the room... or the other side with 2 seats and still have more than the 16 cf.... lots of options...

Yes, I can see that Tesla can fit more than any normal sedan... but then again I did not know it was basically a hatchback... I would compare to a Venza which has a bit more storage...


Cargo Dimensions - STANDARD Cargo Capacity, All Seats In Place 36.2 Cargo Capacity, Rear Seat Down Or Removed 70.2 Max Cargo Capacity 70.2



Heck, even a Honda Civic hatchback has decent numbers...

Behind its back seats, the Civic hatchback has 25.7 cubic feet and 46.2 cubic feet with them folded, which is a bit better than average for a compact hatchback.

 

[ken830]

Ken830....

I was eating dinner and a thought hit me.... how long will the batteries last

Well, that is not something that I can find.... I did find this...

1) battery degrades everyday
2) battery degradation is non-linear over time; meaning it starts very very slow, but after 4-5 years, it gets faster
3) after the first 5 years, degradation may be as low as 5%. But by the 8th year, they expect about 30% degradation.


​

They did not say if there was a number of charges penalty on this, but I would suspect there is...


You might not make it to 10 years and/or 200,000 miles... and from what I can find on the internet (which is not easy either) it appears a new battery pack is around $20,000...

Now, when it comes time to replace yours you might get rid of the car and buy a new one.... but that means your car value might be zero....


Was looking a bit more and.... Another article said that once it gets to 70% they consider it 'bad'... so it could be 8 years.... but some comments say that it is good to 200,000 miles....


WOW.... lots of conflicting info.... I saw an article that says a 60Kwh is $12,000.... and that Tesla think it will be down to 70% at 100,000 miles...


How close are you to 100,000 miles I would think at 25K per year you are close or over...

The lesson I learned is that you should simply not worry about the battery whatsoever on a Tesla. Right now, the cars come with 8-year unlimited warranty. I recall Elon specifically said you could shoot it with a flamethrower and warranty will cover it. In terms of battery degradation (which is most people's concern), there's lots of data out there that agree with my experience, but let's take me as one specific example. I just checked the app and I'm at 92,646 miles right at this moment (My wife is driving, so she's adding more as I type). Close enough to 100K. And my 100% charge is 255 miles. It was 265 miles when new. That's actually less than 4%, but I round up to 5% @ 100K to be super conservative.

Now battery degradation happens with cycling and time. Degradation also increases with temperature and time spent at very high and low state-of charge. Several things about the Tesla gives it the super-low degradation. First, unlike many other EVs, the on-board software allows you to easily select the level you want to charge to. They suggest 90% for day-to-day usage. This keeps the battery from sitting at 100% for long periods of time. Unlike the early EVs like the Nissan Leaf, Tesla has liquid cooling, so the batteries stay at safe temperatures during driving, parked, or charging. Finally, the large battery capacity means that you can drive 250-300 miles on one "cycle". What this means is that even high mileage commutes like mine, that's like 3-4 days to "use" up 1 cycle of the battery. Most people probably only cycle the battery once per week. And, of course, there's nothing anyone can really do about the constant march of time.

Yes, battery degradation is not linear. But it's the opposite of what you understand. It's very steep when new and tapers off over time. I lost 5% of the original 100% in the first 100K miles. When I reach 200K miles, I expect to lose 5% of the remaining 95%. If I were to keep the car to 13 years/300K miles, that would still be at approx 0.95 ^ 3, which is still like 230 miles of range. Completely usable.

Basically it boils down to this: The battery will outlast your car. You can see examples of this in high mileage Tesla Roadsters (which use older tech batteries). These things have been on the road for 10 years now, but I will admit that few are truly high mileage.

I can try to look up more sources for this if you want.

 

[Texas Proud]

Ken... no need to look up anything...

I have been reading a few blogs and articles etc. and it does not seem to be an issue...

 

[Scrapr]

re: battery life

kind of like all the worry about the Prius batteries. The story was it's going to cost $10k to replace the battery. But battery prices come down. And you can refurb the batteries too. I think some of the Prius batteries are down to $1500 plus install. We have an 07 Prius that we just sold. Warranty is 150k miles. We sold it at 240k miles. Still getting 50 mpg

ain't technology great?

 

[Sunset]

With the tesla model s and x you are not going to save your way into justifying it. No one buys an s to save money.

It is a luxury high tech car that happens to be electric.

After owning one , most owners come to the conclusion that the range anxiety is a non issue. This is because you always leave home with a full charge. (Up to 325 miles depending on battery size).

You only need to charge if you are on a long trip.

I drive a lot (25,000 miles per year). And have used the superchargers maybe 5 - 8 times in the last 2 years.

Most people don't drive straight without a break for food every 5 hours or so on long trips. That's the only time you use superchargers


There are also destination chargers. These are at hotels and shopping malls and such but they are very slow (29 miles per hour). So you typically use these overnight. You would not want to wait for these.

Again it's a different filling system, You don't drive around until empty, you fill every night, like your cell phone

I charge my phone every 3 or 4 days...

I just thought of a great prank for teenagers, go to hotels and unplug the charging cars at 11pm.

 

[braumeister]

I just thought of a great prank for teenagers, go to hotels and unplug the charging cars at 11pm.

I think they would get notified on their phones if you did that.

 

[Sunset]

.....
......
Comments about the Model 3 price. Yes. It is $35,000 (before any incentives) base price. Yes, that includes the Autopilot hardware (which includes all active safety features) but the software activation of Autopilot features comes at an additional feature cost.
.........
......

I like the idea of having one, went to the showroom to see them.

I notice they do this included feature, but not activated for a number of features including larger battery capacity.

Namely you drive around with a big battery , but are limited to a percentage of it, unless you pay some thousands more $$$$.

Quite a marketing scheme. Means you cart around the heavier than needed battery unless you pay up.

Also means a software glitch or hack and you could find yourself without many of the features you paid for when purchasing the vehicle.

 

[MichaelB]

I think they would get notified on their phones if you did that.

Well, if they're like me, the phone is in the other room and outside of hearing range. When traveling we turn off the audio at night so the notifications and messages don't wake us. Those rambunctious teens would have to play their tricks before my bedtime, and I doubt they're even out that early.

Unplugging cars charging at night. It is a funny idea, though.

 

[Chuckanut]

re: battery life

kind of like all the worry about the Prius batteries. The story was it's going to cost $10k to replace the battery. But battery prices come down. And you can refurb the batteries too. I think some of the Prius batteries are down to $1500 plus install. We have an 07 Prius that we just sold. Warranty is 150k miles. We sold it at 240k miles. Still getting 50 mpg

Toyota engineers know their stuff. One thing that kills a battery faster is fully charging it and then fully running it down. My understand is that their hybrid battery system is designed to top the batteries out at 80% of capacity and run it down to about 20% of capacity. The batteries always work in the middle zone where stress on them is minimized, thus maximizing battery life.

 

[arky]

Toyota engineers know their stuff. One thing that kills a battery faster is fully charging it and then fully running it down. My understand is that their hybrid battery system is designed to top the batteries out at 80% of capacity and run it down to about 20% of capacity. The batteries always work in the middle zone where stress on them is minimized, thus maximizing battery life.

Doesn't that cut into the range by a significant amount ?

 

[LastOfTheBoomers]

I'm a big fan of Electric Cars - and I would like to own one someday - I did have a thought about long road trips and wondered if anyone else has thought of this - buy one of those small Honda Generators that runs in propane - keep it in the trunk - if you get into a jam - find a Blue Rhino place - get a tank - run the generator- return the tank - drive off

 

[Texas Proud]

I'm a big fan of Electric Cars - and I would like to own one someday - I did have a thought about long road trips and wondered if anyone else has thought of this - buy one of those small Honda Generators that runs in propane - keep it in the trunk - if you get into a jam - find a Blue Rhino place - get a tank - run the generator- return the tank - drive off

Except that the time needed to charge is pretty long... you are only getting 110 V charging...

Plus, returning the tank gets you nothing back...

 

[ERD50]

Doesn't that cut into the range by a significant amount ?

Sure. That's why they need a lot of batteries. It's just another engineering trade-off, how deep to cycle the batteries versus wear-out.

But even before the batteries are recycled, they will probably have some useful life remaining in less critical applications. An EV battery that has dropped to say 70% of its original capacity means 30% less range, and that can be a problem. But in other (especially non-mobile) applications, just add more batteries (and they should be fairly cheap used to this point).

-ERD50

 

[Chuckanut]

Doesn't that cut into the range by a significant amount ?

Most likely. I imagine that would be one of the many engineering compromises they make to get an overall design that meets the needs of driving public. At 50 mpg for a Prius and 38 mpg for a Camry, they seem to have found a good compromise, IMHO.

I can't help but think that high mpg hybrids are one of the biggest hurdles that 100% electric cars will have to overcome in the future.

That said, I envy the Tesla owners. Just because I haven't bought one doesn't mean I don't want one.

 

[ken830]

I like the idea of having one, went to the showroom to see them.

I notice they do this included feature, but not activated for a number of features including larger battery capacity.

Namely you drive around with a big battery , but are limited to a percentage of it, unless you pay some thousands more $$$$.

Quite a marketing scheme. Means you cart around the heavier than needed battery unless you pay up.

Also means a software glitch or hack and you could find yourself without many of the features you paid for when purchasing the vehicle.

There's a flip-side to the coin. In this case, they are selling the exact same physical car for a lower price and the customer has the option to increase its capability in the future for a fee. If the customer never needs it, they save thousands of dollars. If it turns out the larger battery capacity would be a better fit (a lot of new Tesla owners find themselves doing more road trips than ever before), then they have a cost-effective option to upgrade and avoid having to take the financial hit and inconvenience of selling the car and buying a new one. Also, this is a bonus when it comes time to sell the car - the option means that the number of potential buyers is larger because potential buyers would include both people looking for lower-cost and people looking for higher-capacity.

This happened twice. The first was at the very beginning. The take-rate of the 40 kWh battery was too low to justify building, but Tesla didn't want to back-out of their commitment of delivering a $50k (after fed tax credit) Model S to customers that have already reserved. So, the solution was to sell the 60 kWh for the same price as the 40 kWh. The software limitation on the range is actually a welcome "feature" for owners. Now, owners can fully use 100% of the "40 kWh" range without worry about increased battery degradation due to high state-of-charge. Basically, they can charge to the "virtual-100%" all of the time, further increasing the day-to-day range.

They did this again after advances in battery technology allowed Tesla to increase their largest battery option from 85 kWh to 90 kWh and then 100 kWh. Through those advances, Tesla tried to reduce the number of configurations by removing the lower battery sizes. At the low end, the 60 kWh became 75 kWh. A bit later, they decided that they could afford to lower the price of entry by re-offering a new 60 kWh battery using the same software-limited technique. Customers loved this for all of the same benefits of the original software-limited 40 kWh from 2013. There is absolutely no doubt that a software-limited 60 kWh car is more useful and more valuable than the regular 60 kWh in every way.

Tesla was able to justify selling the same car for less money because a percentage of those vehicles will be upgraded eventually, and if the car ever got traded-in to Tesla, they can resell it as a used 75 kWh.

They eventually stopped offering this because prices started coming down, they further simplified the battery choices, and they need to start differentiating Model S/X from the upcoming Model 3.

About the possibility of a software hack, that's not limited to Tesla. And of all the things that a hacker could do, losing features would be very low on the list of things to worry about. Here's a recent example (Don't click these if you are the worrying type):

https://www.wired.com/2015/07/hackers-remotely-kill-jeep-highway/
https://www.wired.com/2016/08/jeep-hackers-return-high-speed-steering-acceleration-hacks/

You'll notice those "legacy" car makers need to issue an expensive recall to have all owners notified via traditional mail, wait for each car to be scheduled and brought back to a 3rd party dealer, and then software-patched via USB to fix vulnerabilities. Imagine if every time a new vulnerability is found in an OS, you had to find time to bring your desktop computer back to an Apple store or a Dell retailer to "patch" it. That would be unimaginable today. I was one of the few people in the early 2000's to monitor leaked tech notes so that I know when to bring my flip-phone back to a Verizon store to ask a technician to update my phone's software. I do NOT want to go back to those days.

With Tesla's OTA (Over-the-air) update capabilities, critical vulnerabilities can be patched immediately for essentially no cost. This reduces the amount of time a vehicle is left vulnerable. A vast majority of vehicles would be patched within a day (overnight), and nearly 100% would be updated in a few days. Only cars that somehow have no Internet connection will be missed. But then that would also mean they are not vulnerable to remote-access hacks.

I will admit that everything is a trade-off. In this case, Tesla has the ability to change your car for better or worse as they please. Example: In late 2013, there was the first report of a Model S catching on fire. Later, it was revealed that the car ran over a triple-ball trailer hitch and the driver was safe because the car warned him to pull over well before (~15 minutes) the fire started. Before the investigation was completed, Tesla quickly pushed out a software update that disabled automatic lowering of the suspension at highway speeds. For the couple of months before they restored the lowering capability, some people were pissed. Some were understanding. Many didn't care too much.

On yet another side of the coin, this OTA capability gives Tesla the ability to do two things that are incredible (and will soon be accepted as normal and not incredible as other manufacturers follow-suit):

1) Offer new features after-sale for free. When I first took delivery of the car, I didn't have many features that I do now. Like the ability to see live Supercharger usage on the map, or have the car automatically raise itself as it approaches my steep driveway, or automatically open and close the garage door as I arrive or leave home, or steering-guidance lines on the rear-view camera video, or a new media player and audio codec that enhances our music experience, or automatic learning of our schedule so that it can pre-warm or pre-cool the car in the mornings and evenings, or automatically suggest a new route if an accident or road closure affects my routine route, or automatic linking of the navigation system to my calendar, or valet mode that limits the cars performance when you let a complete stranger drive your car, or keyless-driving, or dozens of other features that I've probably grown so accustomed to that I don't even remember a time without.

2) They can include new hardware changes before they are fully ready. Like when they started including autopilot hardware on cars even before they announced it. Some may see this in a negative light because they see it as if they paid for something that they can't use yet. But, I see the opposite. You might get a surprise upgrade (either free or option) in the future that you never expected. For the first cars with Autopilot, the customers never expected this capability when they ordered the car. Yet, a few months in, they started getting safety features enabled as the software development matured. Tesla could've easily held back and not introduce the hardware until the software was done, but that would mean months of building cars that won't ever have the chance of getting the new capability.

Next time you're at the Tesla store, you should ask for a test drive. No one there works on commission, so no pressure. I think you might get corporate marketing e-mails from Tesla though. And if you ever decide to pick one up (difficult not too after a test drive) and have a friend who owns one, ask them for a referral to get $1,000 off and free Supercharging. If not, I can provide you one.

 

[ken830]

I like the idea of having one, went to the showroom to see them.

I notice they do this included feature, but not activated for a number of features including larger battery capacity.

Namely you drive around with a big battery , but are limited to a percentage of it, unless you pay some thousands more $$$$.

Quite a marketing scheme. Means you cart around the heavier than needed battery unless you pay up.

Also means a software glitch or hack and you could find yourself without many of the features you paid for when purchasing the vehicle.

Forgot to mention that the Autopilot hardware is in all cars because it gives customers a ton of active safety features (automatic emergency braking and steering, lane departure warning, etc...). Tesla's goal of creating the safest cars in history means that they will never hold safety features back or make it optional. The Autopilot feature using that exact same set of hardware would be considered a convenience feature, and makes sense to make this optional for the customer to choose to spend less money while keeping the convenient option of deciding if they want this capability in the future. They could easily have decided to increase the price of the vehicles to cover the cost, but I think most people like having an option to save money -- It's a wonderful car to drive manually, so if you don't do a lot of long-distance or bumper-to-bumper driving, then Autopilot isn't too much of a convenience and you can save thousands of dollars. And choosing to save those thousands won't reduce your ability to sell the car down the road just because it doesn't have that "killer feature" that the buyers are looking for.

 

[Texas Proud]

Forgot to mention that the Autopilot hardware is in all cars because it gives customers a ton of active safety features (automatic emergency braking and steering, lane departure warning, etc...). Tesla's goal of creating the safest cars in history means that they will never hold safety features back or make it optional. The Autopilot feature using that exact same set of hardware would be considered a convenience feature, and makes sense to make this optional for the customer to choose to spend less money while keeping the convenient option of deciding if they want this capability in the future. They could easily have decided to increase the price of the vehicles to cover the cost, but I think most people like having an option to save money -- It's a wonderful car to drive manually, so if you don't do a lot of long-distance or bumper-to-bumper driving, then Autopilot isn't too much of a convenience and you can save thousands of dollars. And choosing to save those thousands won't reduce your ability to sell the car down the road just because it doesn't have that "killer feature" that the buyers are looking for.

My bold.....


The one problem they might have it that they have low numbers... as an example, the Concord was the safest passenger plane in history right before the one crashed.... and then it was the worst passenger plane in history... there were too few and not that many passenger miles on them... so one crash was all it took....



Edit to add.... seems Tesla did not make the list of cars that did not have a fatality the past 4 years...

http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/25/autos/safest-and-deadliest-cars-on-the-road/index.html


The 11 that had none...

Audi Q7 SUV
Volkswagen (VLKAF) Tiguan two-wheel-drive SUV
Toyota Tacoma Double Cab long bed four-wheel-drive pickup
Mazda CX-9 two-wheel-drive SUV
Audi A6 all-wheel-drive
Jeep Cherokee all-wheel-drive SUV
BMW 535 i and is
BMW 535xi
Lexus RX 350 two-wheel-drive SUV
Lexus CT 200h
Mercedes-Benz M-class SUV (called GLE-class in its current version)

 

[Chuckanut]

OK, how about 500+ miles to a full charge All you have to do is turn off all climate control, drive a known route very efficiently, and never go much faster than 25 mph.

https://electrek.co/2017/06/20/tesla-model-s-hypermilling-record/

Tesla’s Model S has been a popular vehicle for hypermilers to push to its limit and now they set a new record: 901.2 km (~560 miles).