Wow, it’s getting really scary in Texas - and everywhere else!

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ElizabethT said:
The bigger question for me is what is the long game here? Recent studies done in Spain and the UK seem to be pointing to post-COVID antibodies as fading out over subsequent months, meaning re-infection would be a distinct possibility. Time, of course will tell whether or not this is the case or not.
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Yes, antibodies apparently do apparently diminish with time, and may disappear completely within 60-or so days after COVID-19 infection, based on what I have been reading lately. But, the the good news is that other recent studies are showing that, even after antibodies fade, most people who have had COVID-19 still have some degree of immunity after the antibodies are gone. That is because the immune system is complex, and includes things called T-cells and B-cells, which remember the invading virus, and respond if it tries to invade again. The T cells attack the virus directly, and the B cells ramp up antibody production to assist with the defense. I can post references to these studies if folks are interested.

I think we were all led to believe that antibody testing was a good idea, and that it could tell you with some certainty whether you had the virus or not. Based on what I am reading now, having an antibody test more than 2 months after you think you may have had the virus is pretty much a waste of time, as it really can't tell you much of anything. You'll likely test negative, whether you had the virus or not.
 
pj.mask said:
I don’t know if rumors are off limits but heard a friend of a friend said Houston ‘is going to announce shut down again here in a day or so’
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Not unless the governor OKs it, they won't. Mayors can't shut anything down under the current governors order. They can suggest what people should do, but they can't require anything more restrictive than the governor requires. If things continue going badly there are a range of things that could happen. The governor could give a lot of authority to city mayors (I doubt he will do that). He could give mayors (especially in the big city) the option to do certain specific things (close restaurants, for example). He might do this with some guardrails. He might order some piecemeal restrictions of his own. So, he might order in restaurant dining closed in some areas or maybe shut down other very specific things. I think this is most likely of his options.

He could do another shut down. I can't really imagine him doing that until more limited closings don't work. Could happen, but it is last resort. Even so, his orders often have huge loopholes and a shutdown would likely have it as well.
 
RAE said:
Yes, antibodies apparently do apparently diminish with time, and may disappear completely within 60-or so days after COVID-19 infection, based on what I have been reading lately. But, the the good news is that other recent studies are showing that, even after antibodies fade, most people who have had COVID-19 still have some degree of immunity after the antibodies are gone. That is because the immune system is complex, and includes things called T-cells and B-cells, which remember the invading virus, and respond if it tries to invade again. The T cells attack the virus directly, and the B cells ramp up antibody production to assist with the defense. I can post references to these studies if folks are interested.

I think we were all led to believe that antibody testing was a good idea, and that it could tell you with some certainty whether you had the virus or not. Based on what I am reading now, having an antibody test more than 2 months after you think you may have had the virus is pretty much a waste of time, as it really can't tell you much of anything. You'll likely test negative, whether you had the virus or not.
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Good summary!

It’s amazing seeing how this keeps unfolding - it’s so complicated! We thought herd immunity could be determined by antibody testing - no such luck. On the other hand, immunity isn’t exclusively dependent on antibodies. To understand more we have to learn how the complex immune system works.

But yeah - antibody test - limited usefulness. Especially considering how variable the antibody response is in the first place.
 
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Katsmeow said:
Not unless the governor OKs it, they won't. Mayors can't shut anything down under the current governors order. They can suggest what people should do, but they can't require anything more restrictive than the governor requires. If things continue going badly there are a range of things that could happen. The governor could give a lot of authority to city mayors (I doubt he will do that). He could give mayors (especially in the big city) the option to do certain specific things (close restaurants, for example). He might do this with some guardrails. He might order some piecemeal restrictions of his own. So, he might order in restaurant dining closed in some areas or maybe shut down other very specific things. I think this is most likely of his options.

He could do another shut down. I can't really imagine him doing that until more limited closings don't work. Could happen, but it is last resort. Even so, his orders often have huge loopholes and a shutdown would likely have it as well.
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I agree - shutdown would be last resort. But it could very well happen because things get so bad. I imagine shutdowns would be localized.

The link I posted above said Houston mayor is asking (begging?) for a two week shutdown.
 
REWahoo said:
Conspiracy theories can be deadly...



30-year-old dies after attending 'COVID party' thinking virus was a 'hoax'
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Speaking of hoaxes, it seems this may be an urban legend and the NYT has been back peddling. The article is now twice as long as originally published, with the whole second half talking about how there is no evidence and no confirmation.

The quote always seemed far too "convenient".

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/12/us/30-year-old-covid-party-death.html
 
Flattening is good. But flattening with such a high positivity rate and hospitalization rate is not so good.....

I was just looking at my local county starts and am distressed the positivity rate is as high as it is... It's enough to keep us on rolled back opening status.
 
RAE said:
Yes, antibodies apparently do apparently diminish with time, and may disappear completely within 60-or so days after COVID-19 infection, based on what I have been reading lately. But, the the good news is that other recent studies are showing that, even after antibodies fade, most people who have had COVID-19 still have some degree of immunity after the antibodies are gone. That is because the immune system is complex, and includes things called T-cells and B-cells, which remember the invading virus, and respond if it tries to invade again. The T cells attack the virus directly, and the B cells ramp up antibody production to assist with the defense. I can post references to these studies if folks are interested.

I think we were all led to believe that antibody testing was a good idea, and that it could tell you with some certainty whether you had the virus or not. Based on what I am reading now, having an antibody test more than 2 months after you think you may have had the virus is pretty much a waste of time, as it really can't tell you much of anything. You'll likely test negative, whether you had the virus or not.
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This is very interesting, thank you for responding. So, if I'm trying to envision how this might play out, the long game if you will, the first run through of the virus will takeout a certain percentage of the population that cannot mount an adequate physical response. The second run through may have lower mortality rates because the weakest among us have already succumbed.

From there, I admit I'm lost. :blush:
 
USGrant1962 said:
Speaking of hoaxes, it seems this may be an urban legend and the NYT has been back peddling. The article is now twice as long as originally published, with the whole second half talking about how there is no evidence and no confirmation.

The quote always seemed far too "convenient".

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/12/us/30-year-old-covid-party-death.html
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But they have video of their chief medical officer relating this info. So unless she is blatantly lying it seems plausible. Maybe the story has become somewhat embellished from what the chief medical officer actually said.
 
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ElizabethT said:
This is very interesting, thank you for responding. So, if I'm trying to envision how this might play out, the long game if you will, the first run through of the virus will takeout a certain percentage of the population that cannot mount an adequate physical response. The second run through may have lower mortality rates because the weakest among us have already succumbed.

From there, I admit I'm lost. :blush:
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I think it’s more like repeated immunizations maybe required.

And hopefully treatments will continue to improve.
 
Chris Masterjohn, who has a pHD in nutritional sciences and has done extensive research on COVID-19, posted this just today. I thought some of you might find it to be of interest:


"A peer-reviewed paper published in Nature today using subjects from Singapore provided three key findings:

  • All of the 36 subjects who had recovered from mild or severe COVID-19 had virus-specific T-cells.
  • All of the 23 subjects who had recovered from SARS 17 years ago still produced T cells specific to SARS, and in all cases they were cross-reactive for SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, and capable of expanding and activating in response to protein fragments from SARS-CoV-2.
  • Half of the 37 subjects who were unexposed had existing T cell immunity to COVID-19, that could not be explained by exposure to coronaviruses that cause the common cold and might instead be explained by exposure to other coronaviruses harbored by animals.
The first two findings taken together provide hope that T cell immunity to COVID-19 could be long-lasting. This is particularly hopeful given that some reports have suggested antibodies can wane in many people after a couple of months. Indeed, if recovered SARS patients can maintain cross-reactive immunity to COVID-19 for 17 years, it is quite hopeful that recovered COVID-19 patients could maintain immunity for years.
I find the third finding particularly intriguing. 26 of these subjects had their blood drawn before July 2019, making them the least likely to have had any exposure to COVID-19, which is not known to have emerged until later in the year. The other 11 tested negative for COVID-19 antibodies and were not known to have been exposed. I feel less confident that they were truly unexposed, and I wish they reported data for these two groups separately. However, the number of people with T cell immunity to COVID-19 in this group was 19, meaning a minimum of 8 people sampled before July 2019 had the immunity. Furthermore, the specific protein fragments the T cells responded to were different in almost all of the immune people in the unexposed group when compared to those who had recovered from SARS or COVID-19. Therefore, it seems likely that almost everyone in the group had their immunity through some other source than COVID-19 exposure.
They investigated the T cell responses in more detail in a subset of the unexposed group. The primary protein fragments these T cells responded to were not derived from exposure to the common cold. The fragments had very low similarity to the corresponding protein fragments in any of the common cold coronaviruses, and exposure of the T cells to common cold protein fragments was unable to activate the T cells or expand their populations.

Regardless of the source of immunity, these findings suggest that half of us are already immune to COVID-19 without exposure. We shouldn't take this suggestion too far. Just because the T cells activate and multiply in response to COVID-19 doesn't mean a person can't get the illness, and we would need a much larger random sample across multiple populations to be certain of how many people have this T cell immunity. Still, it provides one reason to think that a large number of people would have existing immunity that might at least protect them from a severe illness and may even prevent them from getting sick upon exposure. The nature of this existing immunity deserves a lot more study.Stay safe and healthy,
Chris"
 
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audreyh1 said:
But they have video of their chief medical officer relating this info. So unless she is blatantly lying it seems plausible. Maybe the story has become somewhat embellished from what the chief medical officer actually said.
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It does seem plausible but as NYT notes, there is no confirmation despite efforts. And the quote does seem a bit too pat.

And as noted some of these other Covid party stories have not been confirmed.
 
Looks like another record day of cases and deaths in Texas. More good news!
 
Montecfo said:
It does seem plausible but as NYT notes, there is no confirmation despite efforts. And the quote does seem a bit too pat.

And as noted some of these other Covid party stories have not been confirmed.
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The COVID parties make for a great narrative and are the backbone of Facebook and similar ilk, but I’m doubtful. Even if there have been a couple, the impact may not be significant. People have hurricane parties as well. Some people are just room temperature IQs.

As for the young man who’s final words were “I made a mistake”, my guess is lots of people in the hospital have similar thoughts.

I look for COVID related news from specialized news sources and some Twitter feeds of epidemiologists, virologists, statisticians and MDs. It is much more evidence based, credible and actionable, also less encouraging.
 
brewer12345 said:
Looks like another record day of cases and deaths in Texas. More good news!
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Montgomery County Texas Public Health District decided they were overwhelmed with data. I quote them from this link today (though the page is updated about 5 times a week, so the quoted text will probably not be there in the future):

Confirmed Cases
A letter from MCPHD:

In the past few weeks, numbers of COVID-19 have been increasing beyond the capabilities of our Public Health staff, creating a backlog. In an effort to be able to handle the increased volume of contact investigations, we would like to thank Montgomery County Judge Mark Keough, who has offered additional staff from the County and funds from the CARES Act to pay overtime to Public Health employees.

Starting today, instead of reporting cases after a contact investigation is launched, we will now be reporting all cases received, even before our investigation begins. When cases are first reported to Public Health, we may not have information usually gained during a contact investigation – sex or status. We will only have preliminary information we receive from individual healthcare providers on the laboratory report – age and address. Sex and status will be filled in once a contact investigation is initiated. Please note, residents are notified by their healthcare providers upon a positive result.

We appreciate your understanding during this unprecedented time as we evolve our processes to meet increased demand.
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What this means to me: Reported data is stale and probably not a true reflection of what is happening in your community. OTOH, I was always bothered by the newly reported cases that were listed as already "recovered."
 
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brewer12345 said:
Looks like another record day of cases and deaths in Texas. More good news!
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Florida crosses 300,000 cases! Texas is not far behind.

The trend graphs for TX look horrible! Deaths are accelerating.
 
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audreyh1 said:
Well, if you pass New York, it will be very, very sad. Refrigerator trucks will be a common sight.
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If the trends continue, both FL and TX will pass NY's case counts within two weeks. CA will pass NY next week. Per capita rates in FL will also pass NY, but TX and CA have a way to go for that due to having much larger populations.
 

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cathy63 said:
If the trends continue, both FL and TX will pass NY's case counts within two weeks. CA will pass NY next week. Per capita rates in FL will also pass NY, but TX and CA have a way to go for that due to having much larger populations.
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Case compositions far different than NY of course. And so are death counts.
 
Son in law took his youngest (15) to participate in a DFW area baseball tournament this past weekend. He got a call yesterday that a member of the team tested positive. He has been working from home so no big change to his routine, but his teen son is bummed to be "grounded" for the next two weeks.
 
NY passed the 25,000 deceased count yesterday.
Bars and restaurants still open in FL and TX? Why would one go out in such times?
 
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