Wow, it’s getting really scary in Texas - and everywhere else!

[P.S.]

Where are you getting your news?

... there have been so many contradictory reports of the "facts" from the very beginning of this pandemic how can we know the truth?

... we don't know the truth... and apparently neither do the "experts". Look at the history of their fatality projections... don't wear a mask... wear a mask... only affects the old or those with underlying health problems... type O blood no worries... etc.

Do they provide the specifics of each serious hospitalization or death... do we really know how serious the virus is for people without underlying conditions? It may be much more serious than we are led to believe or not. I don't know... we don't have all the facts.

I'm not saying we are being lied to or the news is fake. Its more scary than that... I'm saying the "experts" don't have all the facts themselves and are shooting from the hip. Either for political reasons or just trying to cover their own asses.
AND... you may have succumb to false hope or exaggerated catastrophe.

Please pardon me for not knowing your background, but I am assuming it is not science or medical.
For something to meet the criteria of “fact” or “truth” in medicine takes A LONG TIME.

SARS CoV2 is a new virus. Which means there are no SARS CoV2 experts. There are infectious disease experts and epidemiology experts. That means if you grill them on any of the other known viral/ bacterial/ pathogen infections and outbreaks -> they can answer your questions. They’ve passed board certification testing, defended theses, etc.

They use their knowledge and past experiences and understanding and apply it to a new, novel virus. That lifetime of accumulated knowledge equips them to guess and forecast. You can guess too (“we take precautions”). But they can guess wrong, despite being very educated.

This does not make them bad. Or dumb. Remember, this is a novel virus. Each new understanding of SARS CoV2 and COVID is dumped into their body of knowledge, and evolving going forward.

Re: “fatality projections” - remember this is a NEW virus. Experts are more likely to project *inaccurately* than correctly. Because this. Is. New. The model is being formed in real time. If you saw a car lose control and hurtle toward a crowd a people, you can guess what would happen. A 3yo or someone who didn’t drive might not predict as well. But if it was a giant martian alien blob, you might predict wrong... because you’ve never seen such a thing.

No expert has said don’t wear a mask.
No expert has said SARS CoV2 only affects the old or only those with health problems.
No expert said: O blood type, don’t worry.

Specifics regarding hospitalizations are available as “case reports.” The place to look for these are in medical journals, like NEJM, JAMA, and BMJ, etc. if you want to read about case reports of kids and multi-system inflammatory syndrome, then read pediatric journals. COVID and heart failure? Cardiac journals. SARS CoV2 infecting the brain? (case reports have been reported since March, which I commented here on ERE) Neurology journals. Most scientific journals and medical journals have made their COVID articles free. Layperson journalists read these articles too, to write the news info for you to read. You can read this info directly.

When you say “it can be much more serious than we are led to believe” , what do you mean? If refrigerated trailers outside of Elmhurst Hospital in NYC is not serious, how do you define serious?
AZ, TX, FLA will soon be doing their own triage. It’s not a matter of if, but how many trailers.

A catastrophe is exaggerated suffering by definition. Global pandemic, record unemployment, >130k deaths in 6mo is a catastrophe.

 

[LOL!]

FWIW, in my Texas county, the health authorities do not report publicly anything on the weekends nor holidays. That is, they report Monday through Friday. What this means is that their numbers don't change on Saturday and Sunday and that non-holiday Mondays after a weekend (when Mondays usually occur ) usually get a little extra.

Furthermore, results from various diagnostic tests that people take are not happening the day of their tests. It can take a while for test results to make it back to the person tested and also to the bean-counter health authorities.

And then there are the "reported cases" that when first reported are classified as "recovered." For instance, 48 of the newly reported 131 cases were classified as "recovered" with other categories "self-isolation", "hospitalized", "deceased", and "unknown." I can only imagine that the "recovered" person tested positive, but when the test results came back they were feeling fine and did not have a fever.

So in this sense, I agree with @34risa. The data is not perfect.

 

[Aerides]

FWIW, in my Texas county, the health authorities do not report publicly anything on the weekends nor holidays. That is, they report Monday through Friday. What this means is that their numbers don't change on Saturday and Sunday and that non-holiday Mondays after a weekend (when Mondays usually occur ) usually get a little extra.

This has long been the case nationwide. Weekends and holidays are iffy, and data usually catches up on Tuesdays. That's why it's always important to ignore single "day" data points and instead focus on rolling-7-day averages to see trends and ignore outliers, good and bad.

That said, FL reported 15k new cases today, a single day record, and I doubt that will be balanced with a couple of sub-5K days to even things out anytime soon...

 

[Corporateburnout]

My concern is, (or would be if I lived in one of the currently spiking states), what is the likelihood that a plateau will be reached anytime soon, if the state remains open? It's not as though we can expect the flattening and then downward trend to replicate the Northeast's experience. And what happens when school starts?

Exactly what Dr. Scott Gottlieb stated on face the nation this morning. NY like Italy went to a complete lockdown which allowed it to reduce its infection rate. He said that in two to three weeks AZ, TX and FL would reach their peak but may plateau for a few more weeks without seeing considerable reduction in infections.

 

[Freedom56]

I believe Carl Sagan in his book from 1996, "The Demon Haunted World", was in some respect foretelling why this country has such a mistrust of science and how the media is contributing to the "dumbing down of America" of society. On page 28 of the book he wrote:

"Not explaining science seems to me perverse.
When you're in love, you want to tell the world. This book is a
personal statement, reflecting my lifelong love affair with
science."

"But there's another reason: science is more than a body of
knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an
America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the
United States is a service and information economy; when nearly
all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other
countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of
a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even
grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their
own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when,
clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes,
our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what
feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back
into superstition and darkness. The dumbing down of America is
most evident in the slow decay of substantive content in the
enormously influential media, the 30-second sound bites (now
down to 10 seconds or less), lowest common denominator
programming, credulous presentations on pseudoscience and
superstition, but especially a kind of celebration of ignorance. As
I write, the number one video cassette rental in America is the
movie Dumb and Dumber. Beavis and Butthead remains popular
(and influential) with young TV viewers. The plain lesson is that
study and learning - not just of science, but of anything - are
avoidable, even undesirable."

"We've arranged a global civilization in which most crucial
elements - transportation, communications, and all other industries;
agriculture, medicine, education, entertainment, protecting
the environment; and even the key democratic institution of
voting - profoundly depend on science and technology. We have
also arranged things so that almost no one understands science
and technology. This is a prescription for disaster. We might get
away with it for a while, but sooner or later this combustible
mixture of ignorance and power is going to blow up in our faces."

I believe this pandemic is exposing the "combustible mixture of ignorance and power" which "is going to blow up in our faces".

 

[Golden sunsets]

Florida just shattered its record, reporting 15,990 new cases today.

 

[brewer12345]

Florida just shattered its record, reporting 15,990 new cases today.

They greatly increased testing and still have a positivity rate in the low teens. This stuff must be rippling through the state.

 

[mamadogmamacat]

% of known cases that result in death still quite low in Florida, however, 1.6% (as of yesterday evening data, on worldometer), much less than many other states:

STATE cases to date deaths to date percent deaths
New York 426,807 32,393 7.6
California 319,985 7,026 2.2
Texas 259,465 3,228 1.2
Florida 254,511 4,197 1.6
New Jersey 180,672 15,603 8.6
Illinois 154,094 7,369 4.8
Arizona 119,930 2,151 1.8
Georgia 114,401 2,996 2.6
Massachusetts 111,398 8,310 7.5
Pennsylvania 99,229 6,953 7.0
North Carolina 83,820 1,523 1.8
Louisiana 76,803 3,408 4.4
Michigan 76,370 6,313 8.3
Maryland 72,467 3,310 4.6
Virginia 69,782 1,962 2.8
Ohio 64,230 3,041 4.7
Tennessee 61,006 738 1.2
South Carolina 54,699 951 1.7
Alabama 51,947 1,114 2.1
Indiana 51,079 2,756 5.4
Connecticut 47,287 4,348 9.2
Minnesota 41,571 1,537 3.7
Washington 40,790 1,424 3.5
Colorado 36,591 1,725 4.7
Wisconsin 35,679 821 2.3
Mississippi 35,419 1,230 3.5
Iowa 34,658 748 2.2
Utah 28,855 212 0.7
Missouri 28,745 1,117 3.9
Arkansas 27,864 319 1.1
Nevada 26,838 592 2.2
Nebraska 20,998 285 1.4
Oklahoma 19,779 421 2.1
Kentucky 19,121 622 3.3
Kansas 18,890 294 1.6
Rhode Island 17,312 976 5.6
New Mexico 14,773 543 3.7
Delaware 12,743 517 4.1
Oregon 11,851 232 2.0
District Of Columbia 10,801 568 5.3
Idaho 10,505 102 1.0
South Dakota 7,454 109 1.5
New Hampshire 6,024 391 6.5
North Dakota 4,243 87 2.1
West Virginia 4,146 96 2.3
Maine 3,520 112 3.2
Wyoming 1,839 21 1.1
Montana 1,677 29 1.7
Alaska 1,385 17 1.2
Vermont 1,283 56 4.4
Hawaii 1,200 19 1.6
Guam 310 5 1.6
Northern Mariana Islands 33 2 6.1
Puerto Rico 9,366 167 1.8
United States Virgin Islands 167 6 3.6
Veteran Affairs 28,193 1,776 6.3
US Military 23,842 41 0.2
Federal Prisons 8,949 95 1.1
Navajo Nation 8,098 396 4.9

 

[brewer12345]

I can't believe Disney World is still slated to open.

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

% of known cases that result in death still quite low in Florida, however, 1.6% (as of yesterday evening data, on worldometer), much less than many other states:
<snip>

I notice that most states that had a surge months ago (NY, NJ, WA) have higher death rates, while many of the ones that had avoided a surge until recently have lower ones, leading me to theorize that the increased deaths could be explained by people who may be in the ICU for many weeks before passing away, or even just succumbing to complications many weeks after contracting it.

 

[Moemg]

I can't believe Disney World is still slated to open.

It opened yesterday !

 

[MichaelB]

There have been repeated requests to drop the mask debate. Any further mask posts (exception for availability comments) and the thread will be closed.

 

[Aerides]

I can't believe Disney World is still slated to open.

it did, yesterday

 

[brewer12345]

it did, yesterday

Incredible. Wonder of they had many [-]patients[/-] customers?

 

[PatrickA5]

I notice that most states that had a surge months ago (NY, NJ, WA) have higher death rates, while many of the ones that had avoided a surge until recently have lower ones, leading me to theorize that the increased deaths could be explained by people who may be in the ICU for many weeks before passing away, or even just succumbing to complications many weeks after contracting it.

I expect the death surge to come soon enough, but probably not at the rates seen in NY, NJ for a variety of reasons. At some point, the infections will probably make it's way back into the older/vulnerable population. Just a matter of time. As mentioned above, Dr. Gottlieb thinks the peak will come in a couple of weeks, but there won't be a sharp decline after the peak like we saw in the Northeast. My guess is things will look really ugly once flu season hits Nov - Jan.

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

I expect the death surge to come soon enough, but probably not at the rates seen in NY, NJ for a variety of reasons. At some point, the infections will probably make it's way back into the older/vulnerable population. Just a matter of time. As mentioned above, Dr. Gottlieb thinks the peak will come in a couple of weeks, but there won't be a sharp decline after the peak like we saw in the Northeast. My guess is things will look really ugly once flu season hits Nov - Jan.

All of those seem like reasonable assumptions -- if nothing else, the states currently undergoing a surge may have more resources or more efficient plans due to the earlier surges. Not that the other states did anything wrong, per se, but there are always lessons to learn and improvements to make in huge logistical projects.

 

[timo2]

Do they provide the specifics of each serious hospitalization or death... do we really know how serious the virus is for people without underlying conditions? It may be much more serious than we are led to believe or not. I don't know... we don't have all the facts.

After following the hospitalization stories and doctor reports the best I can for a non-medical person, it appears to me that the virus attacks whatever organ is not quite up to snuff, even if you could live your whole life without any affects or needed meds for that 'weakness' in your system. So this whole 'underlying condition' notation is starting to seem like nonsense to me. The virus will tell you what your 'underlying condition' is.

 

[audreyh1]

OK - Florida has been catching up with Texas and will likely surpass Texas in total cases relatively soon, as according to worldometers they are within 5000 cases of each other, whereas a couple of weeks ago the gap was much larger. Recently Florida has been running a higher daily case rate than Texas most days.

Wow - looks like today is the day already!

Florida just shattered its record, reporting 15,990 new cases today.

Holy mackerel!

Texas reported 8,196 cases today. So Florida’s giant day puts them ahead.

 

[Dtail]

This has long been the case nationwide. Weekends and holidays are iffy, and data usually catches up on Tuesdays. That's why it's always important to ignore single "day" data points and instead focus on rolling-7-day averages to see trends and ignore outliers, good and bad.

That said, FL reported 15k new cases today, a single day record, and I doubt that will be balanced with a couple of sub-5K days to even things out anytime soon...

+1
The overall math doesn't lie. Don't we have lots of engineers on this site?

 

[audreyh1]

After following the hospitalization stories and doctor reports the best I can for a non-medical person, it appears to me that the virus attacks whatever organ is not quite up to snuff, even if you could live your whole life without any affects or needed meds for that 'weakness' in your system. So this whole 'underlying condition' notation is starting to seem like nonsense to me. The virus will tell you what your 'underlying condition' is.

Yes, it really does start to seem like you don’t find out what is wrong with you until the virus hits you hard. I agree about the underlying condition language starting to look a bit dubious. It certainly makes it appear on the surface as if outcomes are more predictable, but then all these people who thought they were perfectly healthy still suffer bad outcomes. So nobody knows.

 

[Doribe]

I notice that most states that had a surge months ago (NY, NJ, WA) have higher death rates, while many of the ones that had avoided a surge until recently have lower ones, leading me to theorize that the increased deaths could be explained by people who may be in the ICU for many weeks before passing away, or even just succumbing to complications many weeks after contracting it.

I think the declining death rates are due to improved knowledge of the medical staff for the most part. Another reason could be that the initial group of victims consisted of many nursing home patients. I think they have more protections, so fewer old people are getting the virus. Younger and healthier people have a better shot at living after contracting the virus.

If FL, TX, or CA overwhelm their hospital capacity, they will have an increased death rate.

 

[Dtail]

Wow - looks like today is the day already!


Holy mackerel!

Texas reported 8,196 cases today. So Florida’s giant day puts them ahead.

We are trying hard to catch up to California.

 

[Dtail]

All of those seem like reasonable assumptions -- if nothing else, the states currently undergoing a surge may have more resources or more efficient plans due to the earlier surges. Not that the other states did anything wrong, per se, but there are always lessons to learn and improvements to make in huge logistical projects.

Agree, plus it is well known about the issues for nursing homes, so more attention being paid there.

 

[RAE]

Yes, it really does start to seem like you don’t find out what is wrong with you until the virus hits you hard. I agree about the underlying condition language starting to look a bit dubious. It certainly makes it appear on the surface as if outcomes are more predictable, but then all these people who thought they were perfectly healthy still suffer bad outcomes. So nobody knows.

Well, I think it's still pretty clear that people with certain health issues are at much greater risk for potentially serious complications from COVID-19. Obesity and Diabetes are the ones I have seen mentioned most often (in addition to age). A fit individual of average weight still has a much, much lower risk of dying (or getting very sick) from this virus than someone who is obese, and/or diabetic.

 

[6miths]

I think the declining death rates are due to improved knowledge of the medical staff for the most part. Another reason could be that the initial group of victims consisted of many nursing home patients. I think they have more protections, so fewer old people are getting the virus. Younger and healthier people have a better shot at living after contracting the virus.

If FL, TX, or CA overwhelm their hospital capacity, they will have an increased death rate.

Sadly I suspect that it is more the latter than the former. There have been no major breakthroughs on the management side AFAIK, just a couple of incremental changes like higher tolerance of hypoxia prior to intubation, prone ventilation, steroid use, anti-coagulation and possibly remdesivir. As mentioned, when the virus gets into the older populations in the southern states rates are likely to go up significantly.