Wow, it’s getting really scary in Texas - and everywhere else!

[audreyh1]

Why would people go to Arizona and Texas around Memorial Day? "Honey, I know it's 70 degrees outside, why don't we head to Dallas or Phoenix - I hear it's 105!

Exactly, does not compute!

In our area, Cameron county which includes major tourist area South Padre Island is doing much better than inland Hidalgo county which has twice as many cases and more than twice as many deaths. Current cases are proportional to relative population sizes which is ~2x Hidalgo versus Cameron.

 

[Gumby]

Well - that sounds like a theory without facts provided. I could see perhaps explaining Florida, but TX and Arizona? They get far more winter visitors from up north. Seems to me it can be explained simply by the reopening schedules and how any lift on the shutdowns resulted in a huge pent up demand for social gatherings and visiting newly reopened businesses. We know that a huge number of people took it as a green light and threw caution to the wind. Certainly in TX it hit most of the major metropolitan areas simultaneously. This is an extremely contagious virus in the right circumstances and we already had plenty of community spread across the state. Also, with many large attractions still closed early on, why would people travel here?

Precisely. I don't know anyone from around here who goes south for vacation during the summer. They go to the Jersey shore, the Hamptons, Cape Cod, the Berkshires, Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, the Adirondacks and the Catskills. You'd have to be a true masochist to go to Texas in the summer (I once spent 6 months living in Dallas over the summer).

 

[ivinsfan]

The news from Florida just keeps getting worse. Reports of data issues are growing. Yesterday it was some smaller labs not reporting negative tests. Today it is the state recording multiple negative tests for the same individual, counting them as if they were separate people. Reported in today’s Sun Sentinal https://www.sun-sentinel.com/corona...0200715-cpwwngaefzdnpitbs7buh7zsei-story.html

Earlier they combined into one number infection plus antibody tests.


The quote that struck me most was this

Most likely negative tests names are not record in the data base because they wouldn't need to followed anymore and of course positives would be recorded by names for contact tracing, county of residence, and so on. Nothing really nefarious going on. We have a local nursing that is testing employees weekly.

 

[Winemaker]

Precisely. I don't know anyone from around here who goes south for vacation during the summer. They go to the Jersey shore, the Hamptons, Cape Cod, the Berkshires, Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, the Adirondacks and the Catskills. You'd have to be a true masochist to go to Texas in the summer (I once spent 6 months living in Dallas over the summer).

My neighbors are headed to Marco Island tomorrow; second time in 3 months. The beach is alluring.

 

[brewer12345]

Why would people go to Arizona and Texas around Memorial Day? "Honey, I know it's 70 degrees outside, why don't we head to Dallas or Phoenix - I hear it's 105!

Hilarious. But, hey, anything to use the telephone poll sized lipstick on this pig.

 

[JoeWras]

I was driving back from the beach on memorial day weekend after a hurricane project. You could tell all the NY license plates coming to the beach because they are distinctive, and NC does not require a front plate. NC is becoming NY south and is a popular vacation spot for those testing the waters of a possible move here.

I don't think it was much of a factor of the current virus rise in NC, though. I think it was just the velocity of movement and interaction of people from all places, including the bigger NC cities' population visiting the beach.

 

[MichaelB]

I certainly welcome all views, but the data is from the state dashboard and is an official source. It does not appear to be out of sync with reported death data. Death counts by virtually all authorities are reported as provisional and reflect estimates, incomplete data, data subject to revision, etc.

Reported deaths do include deaths from further back that 7 days. If you follow the date of death data, that is clear. I agree the 7 day average is better than the daily report, but consider both to be relevant.

No amount of death is good. But many people obviously think the reported number of deaths reflect people who died the previous day.

All the data I provide is from the State of Florida Dashboard. The high of 88 fatalities on the chart will be updated in a week or two to reflect the current deaths, and it will pass 100. Once again, the daily total fatalities they provide is not in sync with the chart, but the daily total fatality number is still the official number. The 7 day average through yesterday is 95 per day. A week ago it was 56.

As a point of comparison, the chart shows 88 fatalities on July 7. On that same day, the dashboard showed an increase in total deaths of 63. The chart is constantly revised, but not the total fatalities count.

Not sure why this discussion on methodology is taking place. It would be helpful if the State of Florida would disclose more data and daily changes, but they choose not to. The chart of fatalities definitely leads some observers to conclude, erroneously, that the recent rate of fatalities is lower than it really is.

 

[MichaelB]

Memorial Day is a popular time for snowbirds to return to their northern lairs for the summer. The traffic is heavy and definitely northbound.

 

[Dtail]

I certainly welcome all views, but the data is from the state dashboard and is an official source. It does not appear to be out of sync with reported death data. Death counts by virtually all authorities are reported as provisional and reflect estimates, incomplete data, data subject to revision, etc.

Reported deaths do include deaths from further back that 7 days. If you follow the date of death data, that is clear. I agree the 7 day average is better than the daily report, but consider both to be relevant.

No amount of death is good. But many people obviously think the reported number of deaths reflect people who died the previous day.

If the reported death count is over 100 every day, then does it really matter how the data is sliced?

 

[Corporateburnout]

CDC chief says Northerners heading south for vacation around Memorial Day, and not business reopenings, may be responsible for Covid spike in the South.

Dr. Jha from Harvard global health institute disputed the CDC director's claim.

https://www.boston.com/news/coronav...cdc-director-robert-redfield-travel-outbreaks

 

[audreyh1]

If the reported death count is over 100 every day, then does it really matter how the data is sliced?

Exactly! It still keeps going up on average every day.

 

[audreyh1]

Memorial Day is a popular time for snowbirds to return to their northern lairs for the summer. The traffic is heavy and definitely northbound.

I excluded Florida in my skepticism, because I truly don’t know how the vacation traffic works there. But I can tell you that winter Texans absolutely do not return to south Texas late May! It’s too darn hot! Most are out of here by early April, and gone until November.

We have vacationers starting to arrive to South Padre Island in May as that is the start of high season, but county cases don’t reflect a higher outbreak compared to a neighboring county that does not attract summer vacationers.

 

[Gulfbeach]

All Nueces County beaches are closed to vehicles through August 1. People can still walk in but there is also a curfew. Ads are also being pulled from travel magazines and online travel sites. Our numbers are up after Memorial Day and Fourth of July beach crowds.

 

[Dtail]

No snowbirds are coming to Florida for the summer. As for regular vacations, with all the amusement parks being closed at the end of May, I highly doubt large numbers of families were coming to Florida from the North.

 

[candrew]

AZ's Largest Health System Adds nearly 1000 out-of-state nurses, therapists & doctors

https://www.azcentral.com/story/new...-therapists-doctors-covid-19-care/5438379002/

"Banner Health, Arizona's largest health system, is adding nearly 1,000 out-of-state nurses and respiratory therapists to its workforce to help with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The 980 new workers represent about twice the amount of external labor that Banner Health adds in Arizona during a busy flu season"

 

[Montecfo]

If the reported death count is over 100 every day, then does it really matter how the data is sliced?

It is just perspective. The "reported "counts are very stale and include deaths from days weeks earlier.

Reporting by date of death is preferable, in my view, as it is more objective.

No matter how analyzed, deaths are on the rise

 

[Montecfo]

https://www.azcentral.com/story/new...-therapists-doctors-covid-19-care/5438379002/

"Banner Health, Arizona's largest health system, is adding nearly 1,000 out-of-state nurses and respiratory therapists to its workforce to help with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The 980 new workers represent about twice the amount of external labor that Banner Health adds in Arizona during a busy flu season"

Very good. That is what should happen at this point.

 

[candrew]

"Banner Health, Arizona's largest health system, is adding nearly 1,000 out-of-state nurses and respiratory therapists to its workforce to help with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The 980 new workers represent about twice the amount of external labor that Banner Health adds in Arizona during a busy flu season"

Very good. That is what should happen at this point.

Yes, as a short term fix, it is good. If current COVID hospitalization rates fail to mitigate significantly prior to this year's annual influenza epidemic, I'm afraid that all bets will be off.

 

[timo2]

https://www.azcentral.com/story/new...-therapists-doctors-covid-19-care/5438379002/

"Banner Health, Arizona's largest health system, is adding nearly 1,000 out-of-state nurses and respiratory therapists to its workforce to help with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The 980 new workers represent about twice the amount of external labor that Banner Health adds in Arizona during a busy flu season"

On the other hand, AZ is sending patients to New Mexico : "People who have tested positive for COVID-19 in Arizona are being transferred to New Mexico hospitals because of staffing shortages and a lack of bed space, under a federal law that requires hospitals to accept patients from neighboring states if beds are available. Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham said the transfer of out-of-state patients poses challenges as some New Mexico facilities are at or nearing capacity, the Albuquerque Journal reported. New Mexico has fewer hospital beds per capita than many other states, she said.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-st...e-public-schools-announce-back-to-school-plan

 

[brewer12345]

Colorado had 571 new cases today. Doesn't sound like much, but we don't test much and this is the highest number in several weeks. The governor finally ordered masks mandatory statewide.

I think the only people I will have contact with is my sister and family, and my hunting buddies. Flu season is going to be a donkey show.

 

[candrew]

On the other hand, AZ is sending patients to New Mexico : "People who have tested positive for COVID-19 in Arizona are being transferred to New Mexico hospitals because of staffing shortages and a lack of bed space, under a federal law that requires hospitals to accept patients from neighboring states if beds are available. Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham said the transfer of out-of-state patients poses challenges as some New Mexico facilities are at or nearing capacity, the Albuquerque Journal reported. New Mexico has fewer hospital beds per capita than many other states, she said.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-st...e-public-schools-announce-back-to-school-plan

What is often absent in reports of available hospital beds and surge capacity is having enough qualified staff to provide care for patients occupying those beds! The additional out-of-state staff is helpful, however, we are now 4 months into this pandemic with no end in sight. Mental, physical and emotional exhaustion of bedside nursing staff and therapists is already an issue. And looming on the horizon - an annual flu epidemic.

 

[Dtail]

It is just perspective. The "reported "counts are very stale and include deaths from days weeks earlier.

Reporting by date of death is preferable, in my view, as it is more objective.

No matter how analyzed, deaths are on the rise

Bolded by me - we agree on that statement.

 

[Dtail]

Colorado had 571 new cases today. Doesn't sound like much, but we don't test much and this is the highest number in several weeks. The governor finally ordered masks mandatory statewide.

I think the only people I will have contact with is my sister and family, and my hunting buddies. Flu season is going to be a donkey show.

Yeah was kind of surprised that Colorado's testing rate is one of the lower ones.

 

[brewer12345]

So cases in the US were over 70k yesterday. It is hard to see how we are not headed for lockdowns once again.

 

[Chuckanut]

So cases in the US were over 70k yesterday. It is hard to see how we are not headed for lockdowns once again.

If you have not yet read The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity by Carlo Cipolla, I recommend it. It's informative and highly entertaining.

Gven the economic consequences of another lockdown I think a lot of the governors are wary of losing more tax revenues.

I was amazed at the foolish people who think because they are young or live in some very out-of-the-way area, they are somehow immune to the consequences of this virus. Have they not considered the health of other family members? The possibility they might lose their own job or business? What life will be like in an economically depressed area? Who produces all the goods and services they need to live their lives? The consequences of social unrest? Etc., etc. etc.....

Then I remember the "Rules of Human Stupidity" and I am no longer amazed.

FWIW, I do think we can get through this mess with limited damage both to our health and economy, if we all take a deep breath, calm down, and do less on and off the job while doing it more carefully. I am convinced we will have a good vaccine and/or treatment. Forget Granny dying alone in a nursing home, too much money is at stake in too many industries.