Hurricane Irma

[LOL!]

It turns out that all the weather information pretty much comes from the National Weather Service and the different weather sites just re-type the text in various ways which are sometimes sober and sometimes exaggerated.

That said, I have bookmarked the weather underground page:
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/
and go to the storm of interest and look at the various maps. When all the computer model maps and the ensemble maps tighten up, then that means to me that there is a higher confidence in those maps. Also click on "Storm details" and read the text from the NWS under the 3 or 4 tabs there.

So with that said ...

The 5-day forecast has Irma off the north coast of mid-Cuba. BUT the longer-range maps show a 90-degree turn to head north right through Florida. That is, not much probability to go into the Gulf of Mexico. That doesn't mean Irma won't go into the Gulf, but I think it does mean that folks in Florida had better make good evacuation plans. And if they don't need to be in Florida, they should leave. Or if they can easily leave, then they should leave.

Or if they want to go to Yellowstone, I can vouch that September is a great month to go.

I hope I don't see people after the fact in shelters saying on TV "We didn't have any water and no food" because they should have known to have some.

 

[LakeRat1]

DW and I had planned to head to Ft Myers in the AM for the winter..... New plan is to sit tight in Osage Beach, MO until we see what happens ...... We have owned our PM home in Ft Myers for 3 years now, never have experienced a hurricane.....

 

[W2R]

One year we had the remnant of a hurricane stagger like a drunken soldier back and forth across the Florida peninsula as a tropical storm dumping huge amounts of rain. Once the energy is concentrated, it can do lots of damage.

I'm not worried yet, but Irma will definitely be something to keep an eye on.

I remember 2004, when Florida got hit by Hurricanes Charley Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. Ivan was the one that looked scariest to me, but I think Charley did a lot of damage as well.

If it comes to it ...Take 2 cars then park the less reliable car 30 miles inland out of New Orleans and park it in a Walmart parking lot.

Whatever you do don't wait until the last minute.

Good idea. I'll ask him tomorrow if he would rather park his car in my garage, in a local parking structure where it will be a little higher up, or in a Wally World parking lot in Hammond, Louisiana. The car has a lot of mileage on it, and isn't worth much. He is might sell it later this year.

 

[W2R]

DW and I had planned to head to Ft Myers in the AM for the winter..... New plan is to sit tight in Osage Beach, MO until we see what happens ...... We have owned our PM home in Ft Myers for 3 years now, never have experienced a hurricane.....

Good idea. At least if it was me, I would not want to rush down there just to get clobbered by Irma.

 

[Aerides]

Good plan.

If you do decide to leave just before the storm instead of after, and if you have an answering machine that is dependent upon electricity, you can easily find out if you still have electricity at home by calling it from your evacuation location. But you probably already knew this.

I don't have one, because I don't have a landline any more, but Frank does.

That's how we knew we had power back after Wilma. Our hotel was booked so we had to leave after about 4 days, and the machine picked up when we were about 30 mins from getting back home.

I'd still stay and leave after, in case we needed to patch something or remove a hazard or something, make sure all is safely locked up post-storm before departing.

 

[bigcmagor]

DW and I had planned to head to Ft Myers in the AM for the winter..... New plan is to sit tight in Osage Beach, MO until we see what happens ...... We have owned our PM home in Ft Myers for 3 years now, never have experienced a hurricane.....

We've owned a winter home in Cape Coral since 2008 and this looks like our first scrape too. Scheduled to fly in on Friday for a ten day stay. It would be nice to get there in time to batten down the hatches, but have a feeling it's going to be nicer in Indiana.

 

[LakeRat1]

We've owned a winter home in Cape Coral since 2008 and this looks like our first scrape too. Scheduled to fly in on Friday for a ten day stay. It would be nice to get there in time to batten down the hatches, but have a feeling it's going to be nicer in Indiana.

When we left in May, I put the shutters up, so all is locked and ready..... Only thing I am worried about is the golf cart..... We had 15 Inches of rain a few days ago, all stayed dry at our home, but not sure if we can with stand any more.......

 

[LOL!]

And then there's serious discussion about Irma:
ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion - Page 148 - STORM2K

 

[socca]

It's worth remembering that a minor change in predicted track can turn what appears to be a major disaster into a non-event, and vice-versa. That's why I'm not losing any sleep at this time. That said, in the 10 years I've been in Florida I've noticed that those major hurricanes that track south are often up to no good.

 

[Silver]

I remember 2004, when Florida got hit by Hurricanes Charley Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. Ivan was the one that looked scariest to me, but I think Charley did a lot of damage as well.

We stayed home through all of those hurricanes (I lived in Lakeland, Florida at the time.) Charley did over $40k damage to my house.

I had a huge, beautiful oak tree in my backyard which fell onto the roof taking out the pool cage and causing significant damage to the roof and the pool. The hurricane was so loud (sounded like a freight train going right by you about 20 feet away) that we didn't hear the tree fall on the house, but realized it had fallen when rain started coming through the ceiling. It took more than 6 months to get the house and pool repaired because there was so much damage in the area, and every repair company was booked solid.

I will say that a State Farm rep was there within 4 days, and they paid 100% of the damages after I paid my hurricane deductible ($5k). But I certainly learned to never have a large tree within striking distance of my house.

I'm still in central Florida...I have no interest in meeting Irma.

 

[aaronc879]

There are more... but, this far out, with no projected landfall in my area, I don't really need to get started on any of this.

Although it is something you should watch, I don't think you need to seriously consider evacuating until Sunday. Even south Florida doesn't need to decide what to do until Friday. Hopefully it either takes a hard right and just skims the East coast of Florida or makes landfall in Cuba and drops to a Cat 2 or weaker before hitting Florida. If it goes past Cuba and south of Florida and enters the Gulf, THEN it's time to worry.

 

[Aerides]

The stuff to do between now and Friday. Things that won't cost you any other than pre-buying normal stuff:

Get your gas tank (cars) full. Try to stay as close to full as possible. Gas will be scarce and be hour-long lines once the red and yellow stripes get put on your county.
Do extra laundry. Just stay ahead of it vs. having everything in the hamper if the storm hits.
Start putting extra ice in freezer bags in your freezer if you have room. Make extra ice all week long so you don't have to stand in line at publix on saturday for it.
Stock up on toilet paper, paper towels, make sure you're not out of basic cleaning supplies.
Put out as much garbage as possible. Clear crap off your patio if there's a bulk pick up this week.
Trim anything loose in trees and bushes.
Buy extra snacks and non-perishable that you normally like. Breakfast bars and such.
++Wine

 

[Dash man]

Our condo just north of Ft Lauderdale is in the middle of being remodeled and is on the beach. We're not there right now but while our condo is on the 8th floor, our personal belongings are in a storage bin in the basement garage. I hope our condo hurricane windows hold so at least our new floors and cabinets aren't ruined.

 

[MarieIG]

Son #5 is stationed in Pensacola with his bride, so I am hoping that is out of the path of Irma. DDIL is from "down the bayou" Louisiana, so she totally knows the drill and will take care of him. Son #2 was sent into Houston area post Harvey to guard emergency medical personnel. I will be relieved when he is safely home.

 

[Moemg]

We are booked to go to Cuba on Friday . Ha Ha That is not happening !

 

[Sunset]

We are booked to go to Cuba on Friday . Ha Ha That is not happening !

Does your CC have cancellation coverage ?

 

[audreyh1]

The tracks are interesting. It usually has to track a more southerly route initially to make it to our west end of the Gulf.

If a hurricane or tropical storm makes it across the Yucatán peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche, even if just unformed remnants remain, I know chances of a hurricane hitting our west-side coast are high. Just like Harvey - although that one ended up tracking a bit more north at the end and hit what we call the "coastal bend. Physically it passed very, very close to us.

More hurricanes seem to track a little farther north initially across the Caribbean islands and turn north way before reaching our side of the Gulf.

So we mostly pay attention to what reaches the Yucatán.

 

[audreyh1]

Good plan.

If you do decide to leave just before the storm instead of after, and if you have an answering machine that is dependent upon electricity, you can easily find out if you still have electricity at home by calling it from your evacuation location. But you probably already knew this.

I don't have one, because I don't have a landline any more, but Frank does.

We have a web cam that we can look inside our house remotely. If we can talk to it, we must have power....

We get emails from AEP when power goes down in our immediate area, and restoration status updates. It doesn't mean our immediate house has lost power, but close neighbors.

I believe our smart power meter is online. Maybe I can query it though our provider somehow. I know that's how they read the meter. I can see daily usage graphs on their website, so that's certainly one another way to know.

 

[rayinpenn]

Just sent the following Facebook messenger message to my brother who lives in key west

"So I'm sure you thought about evacuation ... I'm sure I don't need to tell you that with a single exit road if you don't get out by Saturday I'm not sure you will be able too. This thing looks as scary as they get."

There will always be those who choose unwisely to stay.

Edit: sent this before it became a cat 5

 

[MichaelB]

We are booked to go to Cuba on Friday . Ha Ha That is not happening !

That's plain old bad luck. Hope you are able to rebook without penalty.

 

[meierlde]

Most of South Florida has above ground electrical, so when a powerful storm hits head on, like Wilma in '05, it takes the system down. Most of Dade and Broward counties were without power for more than a week. The potable water supply was contaminated by overflow, so the instructions were to boil all water before using. Hard to do when there is no power. There was nothing to be had - food, water, ice. Emergency water was trucked in, but with no power, there was no way to let people know. Calling a state of emergency this early is a good move, but only if it is followed by some real preparation - by residents and emergency crews alike.

I am surprised that recommendations do not include a camp stove powered by propane or white gasoline. One burner stoves range around $30. Buy a few cans of propane as well and you can boil water.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

We got hit by Matthew last year, we will get outer bands at the LEAST. Fingers Crossed.....

 

[Moemg]

That's plain old bad luck. Hope you are able to rebook without penalty.

I knew when I booked it that this could happen . We usually never book for September . At least I have our suitcases and clothes ready in case we need to leave .

 

[Popeye]

Latest update says 175 mph sustained winds. I dont remember ever seeing that!

 

[txtig]

I am surprised that recommendations do not include a camp stove powered by propane or white gasoline. One burner stoves range around $30. Buy a few cans of propane as well and you can boil water.

+1. When we were threatened with possible flooding from Harvey, we moved a lot of items upstairs, and were preparing to be able to live up there for up to a week. We had adequate water and food, but what I realized I lacked was a camp stove or any way to heat water or cook food. I had always thought that my gas grill and gas cooktop range would be available in the event of a prolonged power outage due to hurricane. But, until Harvey, I wasn't taking into consideration the possibility of flooding and these appliances not being available. Luckily, we dodged the flooding bullet with Harvey, but I will ensure that I have a portable propane stove for any future emergency.