LOL!
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- Jun 25, 2005
- Messages
- 10,252
It turns out that all the weather information pretty much comes from the National Weather Service and the different weather sites just re-type the text in various ways which are sometimes sober and sometimes exaggerated.
That said, I have bookmarked the weather underground page:
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/
and go to the storm of interest and look at the various maps. When all the computer model maps and the ensemble maps tighten up, then that means to me that there is a higher confidence in those maps. Also click on "Storm details" and read the text from the NWS under the 3 or 4 tabs there.
So with that said ...
The 5-day forecast has Irma off the north coast of mid-Cuba. BUT the longer-range maps show a 90-degree turn to head north right through Florida. That is, not much probability to go into the Gulf of Mexico. That doesn't mean Irma won't go into the Gulf, but I think it does mean that folks in Florida had better make good evacuation plans. And if they don't need to be in Florida, they should leave. Or if they can easily leave, then they should leave.
Or if they want to go to Yellowstone, I can vouch that September is a great month to go.
I hope I don't see people after the fact in shelters saying on TV "We didn't have any water and no food" because they should have known to have some.
That said, I have bookmarked the weather underground page:
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/
and go to the storm of interest and look at the various maps. When all the computer model maps and the ensemble maps tighten up, then that means to me that there is a higher confidence in those maps. Also click on "Storm details" and read the text from the NWS under the 3 or 4 tabs there.
So with that said ...
The 5-day forecast has Irma off the north coast of mid-Cuba. BUT the longer-range maps show a 90-degree turn to head north right through Florida. That is, not much probability to go into the Gulf of Mexico. That doesn't mean Irma won't go into the Gulf, but I think it does mean that folks in Florida had better make good evacuation plans. And if they don't need to be in Florida, they should leave. Or if they can easily leave, then they should leave.
Or if they want to go to Yellowstone, I can vouch that September is a great month to go.
I hope I don't see people after the fact in shelters saying on TV "We didn't have any water and no food" because they should have known to have some.
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