Peak Oil?

[aja8888]

Minnesota has some issues as well with digging for 'frac sand'.
While very few are being directly affected, the numbers aren't inconsequential.

Peak conventional oil happened. Technology has improved allowing as to get at more of the stuff. However, much of this new oil costs more to get, or carries bigger risks, or both.

Our economy is far too reliant on oil. There is a reason price spikes are almost always followed by recessions.

Lessening our society's dependance on oil is the best thing you can do for your retirement and future of your kids (ok, other than teaching them well).

I have to agree on the above, but we live in the present.

No way am I giving up my VW Passat diesel!

 

[bld999]

I have to agree on the above, but we live in the present.

No way am I giving up my VW Passat diesel!

No need in any case on the passat... it would run fine on soy diesel. My little kubota tractor smells like soybeans running around the pasture and hasen't missed a beat in 12 years of the stuff.

 

[aja8888]

No need in any case on the passat... it would run fine on soy diesel. My little kubota tractor smells like soybeans running around the pasture and hasen't missed a beat in 12 years of the stuff.

Ah, the odors of alternative fuels!

These new (which mine is) clean diesels can't tolerate oils that are not spec'd in the correct cetane and lubricity range. It can handle a bit of refined biodiesel (5%), but not much else. Many of the older diesels are still on the road and I have seen a few that had 600K+ on the odo. Lots of them run on biodiesel and there are folks that have put in grease kits (french fry odor).

 

[bld999]

Ah, the odors of alternative fuels!

These new (which mine is) clean diesels can't tolerate oils that are not spec'd in the correct cetane and lubricity range. It can handle a bit of refined biodiesel (5%), but not much else. Many of the older diesels are still on the road and I have seen a few that had 600K+ on the odo. Lots of them run on biodiesel and there are folks that have put in grease kits (french fry odor).

Ah, the new diesels...I hear they burn cleaner than gassers. The kubota is from the 80s, so it smokes a little and sucks down the bio with vigor.

 

[imoldernu]

I honestly don't believe the "entire country" is being affected by an army of sand trucks rumbling by and blowing silica all over the landscape and other negative points you mention.

I have to agree that the upper midwest, especially Ohio in the Utica Shale area, is experiencing increased oil and gas production activity, but it's certainly not that big of a problem on the population. The areas with the greatest focus on new drilling (oil, not so much gas at the moment) are North Dakota, south and west Texas, and Oklahoma.

Your link requires a subscription to read the article.

Sorry about the subscription thing.
Maybe not an "entire country" situation, but not simply a single neighborhood problem either:

U.S. Silica's Ottawa plant is North America's largest silica production facility, mining fine grain, nearly pure quartz sandstone from the St. Peter Sandstone deposits

Ottawa, IL - U.S. Silica Locations
The Utica reference here is Utica Illinois, cojoined with Ottowa. IL.

Not too much drilling or fracking in this area.
Here are the other US Silica plants.

 

[Lakewood90712]

Ah, the odors of alternative fuels!

These new (which mine is) clean diesels can't tolerate oils that are not spec'd in the correct cetane and lubricity range. It can handle a bit of refined biodiesel (5%), but not much else. Many of the older diesels are still on the road and I have seen a few that had 600K+ on the odo. Lots of them run on biodiesel and there are folks that have put in grease kits (french fry odor).

The newer diesel trucks are so clean , other than mechanical noise , you cant tell it's a diesel . 0 odors or soot , with the particle traps and blue fluid stuff. Operators aren't happy about extra cost of maintaining the traps, and buying the fluid. But it really works !

In the Los Angeles / Long beach Harbor , about 10 years ago , the air quality district was sponsoring free re powering of older marine engines. Many fishing and workboat owners jumped at the offer , and got very nice new low emission cat. engines at no cost , but complain of increased fuel use. These engines have no particle traps, and don't use the diesel exhaust fluid.

The guys who run used cooking oil sometimes have to pay for it now and fight for the free sources. ( some restaurants used to leave the cans of used oil out back , now some keep it inside and you have to bribe the dishwasher a couple of bucks if you want it)

 

[6miths]

No need in any case on the passat... it would run fine on soy diesel. My little kubota tractor smells like soybeans running around the pasture and hasen't missed a beat in 12 years of the stuff.

Of course there will be substantially less soy (or corn, wheat or whatever) once we are out of oil/NG since petrochemicals are responsible for the remarkable crop yield explosion that we have witnessed in the last 80 years due to fertilizers and mechanization.

 

[aja8888]

Of course there will be substantially less soy (or corn, wheat or whatever) once we are out of oil/NG since petrochemicals are responsible for the remarkable crop yield explosion that we have witnessed in the last 80 years due to fertilizers and mechanization.

You can make biodiesel out of animal fat and we won't be out of that! But then again, with no oil or NG, not much is going to be going on in the world as we know it.

 

[6miths]

We won't be out of it but we won't have nearly as much. We won't ever be out of oil and NG either it's just that our current population densities and consumption patterns are so dependent on petroleum that when the crunch comes it's going to really hurt unless some major innovations turn up. Or were you talking about that Soylent Green Biodiesel?

 

[ERD50]

No need in any case on the passat... it would run fine on soy diesel. My little kubota tractor smells like soybeans running around the pasture and hasen't missed a beat in 12 years of the stuff.

Soy diesel works, but I'm not sure it makes sense on a large scale. IIRC, much more sense than corn ethanol, but still questionable. But if I had a free/cheap source, and a diesel powered something, I'd use it.

My son had a lab job with a USDA researcher working on perfecting soy bio-diesel. Pretty interesting stuff, lubricity factors and cold weather performance were the big issues they had to address I think, maybe some kind of build up issues? I think they found some catalysts that worked pretty well. Funny thing was, at about 5% soy mix, those aren't really problems. So it seems we could just blend, and not worry about it until it gained acceptance to actually use >5% overall. But I guess they were trying to anticipate that day.

-ERD50

 

[Brat]

The new workboat diesel engines are very efficient.

 

[aja8888]

Soy diesel works, but I'm not sure it makes sense on a large scale. IIRC, much more sense than corn ethanol, but still questionable. But if I had a free/cheap source, and a diesel powered something, I'd use it.

My son had a lab job with a USDA researcher working on perfecting soy bio-diesel. Pretty interesting stuff, lubricity factors and cold weather performance were the big issues they had to address I think, maybe some kind of build up issues? I think they found some catalysts that worked pretty well. Funny thing was, at about 5% soy mix, those aren't really problems. So it seems we could just blend, and not worry about it until it gained acceptance to actually use >5% overall. But I guess they were trying to anticipate that day.

-ERD50

Many states have mandated up to 5% biofuel in street use diesel (diesel with less than 15 ppm sulfur). VW and others will allow that biofuel percentage in their newer diesel powered vehicles without voiding the warranty. AFAIK, oil companies are using refined soy based biodiesel for blending.

What's creating the limitations on diesel cars in the U.S. are the tight air emission standards imposed in 2007 - 08. Common rail injection and high pressure (up to 29,000 psi) fuel pumping is now the norm in German diesels supplied here. Add particulate filters and urea injection and you meet the standards. (Particulate filters also get a regeneration cycle to give them longevity while urea (DEF) is inexpensive).

Since the high pressure fuel pump is the key for the success of common rail injection, the lubricity of the fuel need to meet ASTM spec at a minimum to keep the pump from disintegrating. Biodiesel is very high in lubricity so that is a plus. I use a fuel additive called Opti-Lube XP to assist in keeping the fuel's lubricity high. It's only a few cents per gallon, cost wise.

 

[Midpack]

Soy diesel works, but I'm not sure it makes sense on a large scale. IIRC, much more sense than corn ethanol, but still questionable. But if I had a free/cheap source, and a diesel powered something, I'd use it.

Why would soy be significantly different than corn, in that both are already a large part of food production/supply, and would thereby increase the cost of soy for both uses (fuel & food)? Ethanol from corn has pretty much proven to be a bust.

Interesting article on bio sources that might make sense It's Final -- Corn Ethanol Is Of No Use - Forbes, and why corn was folly all along.

 

[aja8888]

Why would soy be significantly different than corn, in that both are already a large part of food production/supply, and would thereby increase the cost of soy for both uses (fuel & food)? Ethanol from corn has pretty much proven to be a bust.

Interesting article on bio sources that might make sense It's Final -- Corn Ethanol Is Of No Use - Forbes, and why corn was folly all along.

Good article, thanks!

These articles tend to only focus on the environmental and food chain economics of ethanol used in fuel. They never mention the cost to get it to market as it can't be pipelined (too corrosive) and there has to be additional tankage and blending equipment installed at terminals. The transportation part is quite important as it has to be trucked in most cases and that is costly and uses a lot of fuel to move the trucks.

Also, we know what damage ethanol does to small engines and to some extent, older large engines.

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Soy diesel works, but I'm not sure it makes sense on a large scale. IIRC, much more sense than corn ethanol, but still questionable. But if I had a free/cheap source, and a diesel powered something, I'd use it.

Why would soy be significantly different than corn, in that both are already a large part of food production/supply, and would thereby increase the cost of soy for both uses (fuel & food)? Ethanol from corn has pretty much proven to be a bust.

Interesting article on bio sources that might make sense It's Final -- Corn Ethanol Is Of No Use - Forbes, and why corn was folly all along.

Yes, they are both food crops, that's an issue in common.

But there are still big differences:

Soybeans are ~ 20% oil, and extracting that oil is a pretty simple and low-energy process. The oil doesn't really need much processing to be used in a blend.

Turning corn into ethanol is a multi-step, high energy process. First soak the corn with enzymes at warm temps to convert the starch to sugar. Second, cool down the heat you added so you can add yeast to convert sugar to alcohol. Third, heat it again to distill the mix to boil off ~ 85% of the water in the mix to get the ~ 15% alcohol. Takes a lot of energy to boil water. And we still have something that most cars can only use as a blend.

Further, corn requires high amounts of nitrogen fertilizer - and nitrogen fertilizer is made from.... wait for it.... petroleum!

Soybeans on the other hand, are legumes, which (in combination with bacteria) actually draw nitrogen from the air and increase the nitrogen in the soil. That's one of the reasons that farmers will rotate between soy and corn (also to break disease/pest cycles).

Overall, I'd say soy-oil fuel > corn ethanol.

-ERD50

 

[aja8888]

Further, corn requires high amounts of nitrogen fertilizer - and nitrogen fertilizer is made from.... wait for it.... petroleum!

-ERD50

To be more detailed, anhydrous ammonia (nitrogen fertilizer base) is cracked from natural gas, not a liquid petroleum. But both come from the same source and are hydrocarbon compounds.

Sorry to have this thread go off topic, but in the interest of Peak Oil, which is still a thought process, but difficult to quantify worldwide, there is some good info in the posts here.

 

[Midpack]

Yes, they are both food crops, that's an issue in common.

But there are still big differences:

Soybeans are ~ 20% oil, and extracting that oil is a pretty simple and low-energy process. The oil doesn't really need much processing to be used in a blend.

Turning corn into ethanol is a multi-step, high energy process. First soak the corn with enzymes at warm temps to convert the starch to sugar. Second, cool down the heat you added so you can add yeast to convert sugar to alcohol. Third, heat it again to distill the mix to boil off ~ 85% of the water in the mix to get the ~ 15% alcohol. Takes a lot of energy to boil water. And we still have something that most cars can only use as a blend.

Further, corn requires high amounts of nitrogen fertilizer - and nitrogen fertilizer is made from.... wait for it.... petroleum!

Soybeans on the other hand, are legumes, which (in combination with bacteria) actually draw nitrogen from the air and increase the nitrogen in the soil. That's one of the reasons that farmers will rotate between soy and corn (also to break disease/pest cycles).

Overall, I'd say soy-oil fuel > corn ethanol.

-ERD50

I guess what I was getting at was why not use a source that isn't already a major food source? IOW, avoid the obvious food supply/demand and price issue altogether.

I think the article discusses switchgrass for example, or algae (though presumably that's a substantially different process and cultivating method).

 

[ERD50]

I guess what I was getting at was why not use a source that isn't already a major food source? IOW, avoid the obvious food supply/demand and price issue altogether. ...

No disagreement from me, re-read what I wrote ('not sure it makes sense... still questionable'....):

Soy diesel works, but I'm not sure it makes sense on a large scale. IIRC, much more sense than corn ethanol, but still questionable. But if I had a free/cheap source, and a diesel powered something, I'd use it.

I think the article discusses switchgrass for example, or algae (though presumably that's a substantially different process and cultivating method).

These still have a long way to go, but we might get there someday. It will be interesting to see (if I live long enough) if any one or two new sources take over, or will we have dozens of methods (that diversification could be a good thing).

-ERD50

 

[wmackey]

Read this book years ago. Before this latest edition came out.

http://www.amazon.com/Ultimate-Reso...=1415044788&sr=8-2&keywords=ultimate+resource

To me, one of the most infuential books I ever read. Explained a great deal about "shortages".

 

[aja8888]

Here is also a good book written by Matt Simmons who I worked with at one time. Matt passed away a couple of years ago but had a real good perspective on what is going on worldwide with oil. The book was written pre 2007 and Matt missed out on the recent horizontal drilling boom.

Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy: Matthew R. Simmons: 9780471790181: Amazon.com: Books

"Investment banker Simmons offers a detailed description of the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the U.S and our long-standing dependence upon Saudi oil. With a field-by-field assessment of its key oilfields, he highlights many discrepancies between Saudi Arabia's actual production potential and its seemingly extravagant resource claims. Parts 1 and 2 of the book offer background and context for understanding the technical discussion of Saudi oil fields and the world's energy supplies. Parts 3 and 4 contain analysis of Saudi Arabia's oil and gas industry based on the technical papers published by the Society of Petroleum Engineers. Simmons suggests that when Saudi Arabia and other Middle East producers can no longer meet the world's enormous demand, world leaders and energy specialists must be prepared for the consequences of increased scarcity and higher costs of oil that support our modern society. Without authentication of the Saudi's production sustainability claims, the author recommends review of this critical situation by an international forum. A thought-provoking book."

If you want to learn something about foreign oil reserves, this is the best source.