Poll:How much did luck help you FIRE?

[Joshua]

Hi everyone,

I was thinking recently that a lot of people who have become majorly rich did so because of a lucky break more than anything else. They were at the right place at the right time. The same goes for a few of the well-off folks on this board. Some of you were dabbling in the stock market, running a business, or participating in some other investment, and, though you couldn't have predicted it ahead of time, it just turned out to be right.

Now, don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that having the resources, strength, and knowledge to take advantage of that lucky break weren't important, too, but I am curious - how many folks on here attribute their ability (or their future ability) to FIRE to more or less dumb luck, and how many folks think it has come purely from their own hard work and planning? And if you say it was from luck, was it real, out of the blue luck, or was it the kind of "luck" you had to work and slave for in order to take advantage of it when you saw it?

Just wondering!

 

[CyclingInvestor]

I chose "made my own luck". I chose a good profession (programming), LBYMed, maxed out my 401Ks and IRAs, saved some on the side, bought a house and paid it off, and learned how to invest and analyze companies.

The "lucky event" I was able to take advantage was the REIT market performance in 2000-2005. I had been tracking and investing in individual stocks since about 1993. In 1998 (a bit early) I shifted some (later all) of my $$ from (very over-priced IMO) blue chip internationals to (under-priced IMO) blue chip REITs, and kept them till 2005, completely missing the 2000-2002 collapse (REITs appreciated throughout this period). This allowed me to retire considerably earlier, probably 5 years or so.

 

[chris2008]

I take it as luck that I was born in a solid country, where savings could be made, at least in the last 60 years, without the risk of being wiped out by war, desasters or the like.
I take it as luck that I have good health and healthcare.
I take it as luck that I was born into a family that believed in the merits of saving, not going into debt for consumption, has sent me to good schools and encouraged me to reach high at my carreer.
I take it as luck to find DH with similar values and background.
I take it as luck that our jobs are stable even in today's economy, enabling us to ER 2012.

I do NOT take it as luck that we got some small legacies from both sides of the family that gave us a good start. We'd rather have the relatives enjoy their money and live longer.
I do NOT take it as luck that we are childless. But if life gives you lemons you better learn to make lemonade.

 

[obgyn65]

In my case the right answer is "none of it". Worked hard, and practiced LBYM. I did not get a lucky break.

 

[clifp]

Retiring at 40 was mostly lucky. I often say that earned my lottery tickets, choosing the right major make smart career choices. But working for company who's stock went up 50x that is lucky.

On the other hand I am confident that even if I didn't make dime on stock options, and assuming I avoided a long layoff, I still would be nearing retirement in my early 50s. Making a good salary, saving early and often, mostly avoiding stupid investments, and finally LBYM those are the main ingredients to FIRE.

 

[grasshopper]

No luck, but wonderful Karma. Ms G. and I attracted to our life all the abundance that we now have and will ever need.

 

[scrabbler1]

For me it was good choices in my early years combined with some luck in my later years which enabled me to ER as early as I did 2 years ago at age 45.

The good choices were being in a profession (actuarial) which paid well, paying for cars with cash, avoiding credit card debt, paying off student loans early, paying off mortgage early (and not having those two loans at the same time), LBYM, and being childfree.

The good luck events were enjoying my biggest earning years and having the stock market boom in the late 1990s, and having my company start its ESOP in the late 1990s which grew by 3000% by the time I left in 2008. Having that ESOP peak at the same time the big bond fund I would invest its proceeds in bottom out has greatly helped my ER income.

 

[Free To Canoe]

I take it as luck that I was born in a solid country, where savings could be made, at least in the last 60 years, without the risk of being wiped out by war, desasters or the like.
I take it as luck that I have good health and healthcare.
I take it as luck that I was born into a family that believed in the merits of saving, not going into debt for consumption, has sent me to good schools and encouraged me to reach high at my carreer.
I take it as luck to find DH with similar values and background.
I take it as luck that our jobs are stable even in today's economy, enabling us to ER 2012.

I do NOT take it as luck that we got some small legacies from both sides of the family that gave us a good start. We'd rather have the relatives enjoy their money and live longer.
I do NOT take it as luck that we are childless. But if life gives you lemons you better learn to make lemonade.

I voted you make your own luck. DW and I have made some lemonaide from the lemons. However, this post has me thinking about many things that I take for granted.

I hope it can be said that I maximized the "luck" I was given.

Free to canoe

 

[travelover]

Mostly dumb luck added with LBYM thriftiness.

 

[Onward]

No luck. No brains, really. Just discipline and an overwhelming hunger to extricate myself from the corporate machine.

 

[dex]

Luck or factors which the a person have no control over are a major part of the equation. I don't know how to weight the variables.

Born between 1945 and 1955
Born in the USA
Born mentally healthy
Born physically healthy
Born into a family that was able to supply with physical needs
Born into a family that was able to provide psychological needs*
Born into a family that was able to give good guidance*
White
Male


I may have missed a few items but you get the idea.

If a person had the above going for them they almost had to work at failing.

Other factors that helped
Postponement of gratification
Tall*
Good looking
Good communication skills*
College education
Career selection
Conservative investing

* I didn't have these but still made it.

 

[JBmadera]

Certainly aided by luck - 15 years ago, due to division closing, moved from food service distribution into hi-tech. stock option proceeds helped a great deal.

 

[cardude]

Much of my success is from luck:

I was lucky to have hard working, thrifty parents who taught me how to save and how to LBYM, and they put me through college and let me grow up at my own pace while there.

I was lucky in NOT landing a "great" job out of college, but instead was forced to take various sales jobs.

I was VERY LUCKY suckering my DW into marrying me. Probably my greatest lucky break to date.

I was lucky to have had the chance to buy into a Chevrolet/Dodge dealership in 1993, just as business was getting ready to boom in our area.

I did display a little skill practicing extreme LBYM when DW and I owned the dealership-- we basically lived off her teacher salary and saved the rest.

I used some skill by only reinvesting the minimum amount back into the dealership to keep it running, and stripping the rest of the money out for investment elsewhere. I never wanted to pass this business down to my sons. I didn't see it lasting that long. I was right on that one. I was mostly lucky investing the profits from the dealership. I was big into Intel, Microsoft and Cisco Systems back in the go-go days (had a cousin who worked for Cisco), and was lucky (with maybe a little skill) selling all my positions in mid 1999.

I used some skill buying Berkshire with the proceeds, plus every bit of dealership profit I could squeeze out, over the next 10 years, when I thought Berkshire was cheap.

After posting this, I now worry that I may have used up all my luck over the years.

 

[MichaelB]

I was fortunate to have opportunities and also to benefit from the choices I made.

 

[Walt34]

No luck really, unless one counts the luck of taking on a job that had a good DB pension and health insurance, and not getting seriously injured or sick. But getting that job was a four-year project, and during that time almost everything I did was targeted to that end.

I recognized the pitfalls of debt and refused to make myself a slave to the credit industry, ending a marriage rather than go down that road.

Married a wonderful lady who shares those values, is smart, can actually balance her checkbook, and knows the importance of doing so.

 

[W2R]

Hi everyone,

I was thinking recently that a lot of people who have become majorly rich did so because of a lucky break more than anything else.

Who said you have to become majorly rich to retire? Some of our members are indeed majorly rich, but others are enjoying a nice retirement despite more modest assets.

For those who want to retire, I think that determination, desire, and planning are more relevant than luck. Keep your eye on the brass ring and go for it.

I suppose for anyone, one could say that luck plays a part. We were all lucky that during the year before retirement we didn't experience an earthquake such as the one that hit New Zealand last week. We were lucky that we weren't born braindead. Many of us were lucky to be born in a country where opportunity abounds.

Generally, I think that many here could rightly claim that they took a lemon and made lemonade.

 

[FIREd]

Luck was a factor for sure.

1) DW and I were born in free, democratic and wealthy countries.
2) DW and I have been in relatively good health all of our lives (and even though I retired for health reason, I won't complain).
3) Our parents were not poor (but nor rich either).
3) DW and I were born with reasonably good intelligence.
5) We were lucky to have thrifty grandparents who could show us how to LBYM.


But:

1) We chose careers that had good employment and earning prospects.
2) I chose to leave my friends and family behind and move to a country that offered better job opportunities, higher salaries and lower taxes which facilitated wealth accumulation.
3) I chose a spouse that had similar wealth accumulation ideals.
4) We chose jobs that had the potential for higher earnings (opportunities for promotion, stock options, bonuses, etc...) even when we had to leave everything behind and move across country to obtain such jobs.
5) we chose to work our a$$ off often clocking 70+ hours a week.
6) we chose to LBYM.

 

[Joshua]

Who said you have to become majorly rich to retire? Some of our members are indeed majorly rich, but others are enjoying a nice retirement despite more modest assets.

For those who want to retire, I think that determination, desire, and planning are more relevant than luck. Keep your eye on the brass ring and go for it.

Now now, I am not saying you have to be rich to retire. lol Far from it. I expect to enjoy only modest independence when I retire, but that will still be far and above what many will have. And whether I get any "luck" or not... I plan to keep plugging away it. As some have pointed out, I am already very lucky just due to the time and place of my birth in a country that enjoys a more or less stable economy and government. We worry about the state of our investments, not whether armed brigands are going to murder us in our beds tonight.

 

[robbridg]

No financial lucky breaks for me. I did have have one unlucky break in my financial life and that was my divorce. That cost me a bundle! If it wasn't for that I'd be semi-RE'd by now.

I feel blessed though that my life has gone as well as it has.

 

[BigNick]

I haven't FIREd yet, but I voted that I made it all myself (or rather, we did, ourselves). I inherited $10K about 5 years ago, so I guess that's 1%.

Luck doesn't have much to do with it, although that depends on how you define luck - beyond good health, perhaps.

The other day, we were discussing with a friend my plan to maybe go back to college this September. She commented "Oh, you're so lucky to be able to do that, I'd love to but I can't". I don't know if she genuinely thought that we'd rolled a six and she hadn't, but she chose to have her son at 39 without getting married (kid's Dad is around, but not a whole lot), so at 45 I'm not sure what she thought was going to happen. We've been LBYM since we got married without any specific idea of exactly what we'd do with the pile of accumualated money; now we've discovered that I can have a year of retirement now rather than at the "back end". That's not luck in any sense that I recognise.

(The other day, I came across this site). Maybe the book which is linked (The 4-Hour Work Week) is already well-known here. I just noticed the comment about "having several mini-retirements", which rings a big bell for me.)

 

[easysurfer]

I voted for some of both. Though for the most part, I feel I've earned my FIRE (LBYM, started early, worked hard along the way), I can think of two instances where luck paid a role.

Black Monday, the big crash of 1987. I remember lots of co-w*rkers in a panic mode. Me, I hadn't started investing yet so for me it was mostly "what crash?". But had I felt the sting of Black Monday, maybe I would have shied away from investing all together.

The big crash of 2008. I FIRE'd in Jan '08. Before the big crash of 2008 hit. Had it been later in the year that I'd planned to FIRE, I may have shied away from pulling the trigger.

That said, I'm ready (knock on wood) to hang on tightly for the next big crash

 

[JBmadera]

Personally the only folks I know that FIRE'd we're stock option windfall proceed recipients or family members who were on public sector DB plans.

I can only speak from the private sector standpoint and without stock options there is no way I could FIRE, my co contributes $2500 per year to my 401k, and they had suspended it for a couple of years during the crisis. We LBYM but w/o DB the amount we needed to save wasn't possible w/o stock option proceeds....maybe we don't LBYM to the extent we should!!!

 

[FIREd]

Personally the only folks I know that FIRE'd we're stock option windfall proceed recipients or family members who were on public sector DB plans.

I can only speak from the private sector standpoint and without stock options there is no way I could FIRE, my co contributes $2500 per year to my 401k, and they had suspended it for a couple of years during the crisis. We LBYM but w/o DB the amount we needed to save wasn't possible w/o stock option proceeds....maybe we don't LBYM to the extent we should!!!

Stock options do help, but for us keeping our expenses well below our take home pay was key for reaching FIRE. Earnings from stock options, which represented a tad under 10% of our lifetime income, just nudged us across the finish line.

 

[flyfishnevada]

I made my own luck I guess. I got a job at the State because it payed better than anything else I could find. After a few years, I became aware of the pension benefits and considered staying around. I transferred to the Dept. of Transportation, took free classes offered to get my Professional Engineering license and met a guy who told me I should buy 5 years of service credit while I was young and it was cheap. I listened and did it and here I am retired at 43 (44 now).

I suppose it was luck in a way, being in the right place at the right time, etc., but I worked hard and did my bit and I made the right decisions when the opportunities presented themselves. I am one of the youngest to ever retire in my system. Most don't make it until their 50s or 60s (I think the average is like 62), bouncing around in careers before settling down. I started at 18 and stuck it out.

Now you couldn't do what I did. You have to have a degree to become registered, the option to buy 5 years is significantly more expensive, and I think new hires need to work 32 years instead of 30. If i was starting today, I'd likely have quit and went to college, my original plan back then.

 

[kcowan]

I believe that luck is a matter of being prepared for the choices that present themselves. I always knew which career moves to take and which to pass. Of course, no one can know what would have happened?

But we are all an optimistic group, aren't we?