I'm referring to stuff I have to have today, like a toilet bowl flapper.
I can order many things from Amazon.com to be delivered
today. As time goes on, such purchasing might undercut the ability for local hardware stores to survive.
Also, things like large appliances. I don't see myself buying a washer-dryer on-line.
But my spouse and I
did. It'll be a matter of whether critical mass can be retained by the local retailer in light of changing purchasing behaviors, such as that of my spouse and I. The current trend is running toward online and against B&M.
The trend of the large stores making on-line purchases deliverable to the store will help them compete to some level.
Right now critical mass is being maintained for B&M retailing principally on the discomfort of many people with interacting online. Future generations won't have even an inkling of such discomfiture. As soon as enough people feel perfectly comfortable capitalizing on the ability to see and touch something in a store, and then turning to their smart phone to make the purchase from a retailer that can pass along some of the savings stemming from not having a B&M presence, things will be different (and for many retailers, that time is already here).
But I don't think it will disappear completely.
I think, in the end, what we're going to see is another business model for B&M. The path forward is either going to have to involve "religion" - i.e., changing the minds and hearts of a critical mass of people to regard the impact of online purchasing as "sins" because of considerations that have nothing to do with the purchase itself, but instead involve matters such as local jobs and the local economy - or going to have to involve some kind of selling of a
purchasing experience.
I cannot even imagine what the latter could look like, but it would have to, in some way, deprive people of the ability to capitalize on the advantages of B&M retailer without some means of assuring that the purchase will be made through the B&M retailer. Maybe there's some way to structure purchasing clubs, so that people who want to be able to see and touch things before they buy can pay a significant annual fee which effectively is like a FSA (a health savings account for which any unused amount at the end of the year is forfeit). Perhaps what will come about is a fair-like arrangement, where
manufacturers will rely more heavily on "Home Shows" and the like to give folks an opportunity to see and touch things, with purchases all made online.
Extending that idea a bit... perhaps we see an "everything old is new again" scenario, wherein B&M retail stores become spaces within which the better manufacturers will rent space from retailers - stores within stores, with the
manufacturer building the cost of retailing into the purchase, since increased consumer power ripped the ability for the
retailer to do so. Perhaps manufacturers will differentiate their product lines, selling at a premium those for which they rent showroom space from retailers, while still selling lower grade models, which aren't available from B&M retailers, exclusively online.
We consumers are simply getting too good at using new technology to our advantage. It's going to change a lot of things, not just retailing.
