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Old 01-02-2019, 02:16 PM   #921
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Down 7.9% for 2018.
90% equities.
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Old 01-02-2019, 03:26 PM   #922
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According to Personal Capital's "YouIndex" I was down 10.2%, 85% equity - with 30% of that international. Mostly VTSAX and VTIAX. That said, that YouIndex probably isn't accurate since I'm not sure it does the math for sales and such and basically just assumes you either only bought in or held everything. I need to look more into that. Still, as a ballpark number, it's probably about right given my AA.

I made two sales in August to support funding our move to the new home, selling some AAPL and some S&P500 index fund that's just hanging out in another account. Both were sold at near market top, making me feel pretty smart... or lucky... whatever.
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Old 01-02-2019, 03:27 PM   #923
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So I was looking at the numbers and got motivated. I typed everyone who gave an AA and return into a spreadsheet (40 data points since markets closed on 12/31). I thought you might find this interesting.
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Old 01-02-2019, 05:26 PM   #924
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My net worth was down -.81% this year. That includes my living expenses, and very large donation to my Donor Advised Fund since benefit from a windfall in one of my investments.

It will take a few days before Schwab updates all the year end stuff, before I do a deep dive into my stock performance. But I suspect, my good time/luck with selling a good chunk of stock in Nov. early Dec. and buying puts helped. But even more important was purchasing of real estate and my Angel investing. Real estate values continued to rise especially in Vegas, but moderately in Hawaii, and Missouri, which canceled out the market declines.

I have very mixed emotions about last years. It is never good to lose money, but after 2 years of trailing my benchmark (a moderately aggressive portfolio) it was nice to crush it this year.
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Old 01-02-2019, 05:38 PM   #925
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Originally Posted by USGrant1962 View Post
So I was looking at the numbers and got motivated. I typed everyone who gave an AA and return into a spreadsheet (40 data points since markets closed on 12/31). I thought you might find this interesting.
Thanks for that data and your time doing it. Very interesting data. I didn't give my AA but at 75% equity I can see where I would be at.
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Old 01-02-2019, 05:50 PM   #926
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So I was looking at the numbers and got motivated. I typed everyone who gave an AA and return into a spreadsheet (40 data points since markets closed on 12/31). I thought you might find this interesting.
Thanks for creating that, what a great idea! I guess one problem is that some people gave ROI, some net portfolio value and some net worth. May I ask what were you plotting when people gave more than one of those values?
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Old 01-02-2019, 06:13 PM   #927
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Thanks for creating that, what a great idea! I guess one problem is that some people gave ROI, some net portfolio value and some net worth. May I ask what were you plotting when people gave more than one of those values?
Perhaps not consistent with data points for as you mentioned some included contributions in their return, some net of spend, and a mix of things but probably directionally correct. So I appreciate the plotting and sharing.
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Old 01-02-2019, 06:24 PM   #928
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Thanks for creating that, what a great idea! I guess one problem is that some people gave ROI, some net portfolio value and some net worth. May I ask what were you plotting when people gave more than one of those values?
I didn't differentiate between IRR and net value. So if there was a percent change and an AA it went in. At least two cases folks specifically stated that their AA changed drastically during the year, so I left those out.

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Perhaps not consistent with data points for as you mentioned some included contributions in their return, some net of spend, and a mix of things but probably directionally correct. So I appreciate the plotting and sharing.
I tried to stick to people that were talking portfolio performance and avoided net worth where mentioned. Tried to read between the lines on who was including withdrawals/contributions or not.
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Old 01-02-2019, 06:31 PM   #929
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I didn't differentiate between IRR and net value. So if there was a percent change and an AA it went in. At least two cases folks specifically stated that their AA changed drastically during the year, so I left those out.



I tried to stick to people that were talking portfolio performance and avoided net worth where mentioned. Tried to read between the lines on who was including withdrawals/contributions or not.
Thanks for the additional info. Nice work!!!
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Old 01-02-2019, 06:38 PM   #930
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scratchy View Post
Thanks for creating that, what a great idea! I guess one problem is that some people gave ROI, some net portfolio value and some net worth. May I ask what were you plotting when people gave more than one of those values?
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobandsherry View Post
Perhaps not consistent with data points for as you mentioned some included contributions in their return, some net of spend, and a mix of things but probably directionally correct. So I appreciate the plotting and sharing.
I think it might be helpful when we start the 2019 thread to provide the guidelines that the 2017 thread came to a consensus on and I think we also discussed it at one time in 2018.

Best practice would be a XIRR where the beginning cash flow is the beginning of year balance, contributons are positive cash flows as of the dates of the contributions and distributions are negative cash outflows as of the dates of the distributions and the end of period balance is an outflow as of 12/31. In my case, I have an online savings account that is the middleman between the rest of my retirement portfolio and the local credit union accounts that I use to pay my bills.... so it is really easy for me to identify distributions.

Also accepted is the calculator at Investment Return Calculator: Measure your Portfolio's Performance

In fact, I have that calculation included in my spreadsheet as =AVERAGE(RATE(1,dividends & withdrawals,-starting balance,ending balance,1),RATE(1,dividends & withdrawals,-starting balance,ending balance,0)) and it comes out exact with the moneychimp calculator.

Finally, my withdrawals are fairly constant and the XIRR for 2018 was -3.45% and the moneychimp calculation was -3.46%... so if your conributions or withdrawals are farily constant then the moneychimp is a real good estimate of XIRR return.
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Old 01-02-2019, 06:47 PM   #931
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Thanks for the scatter graph USGrant. I am an outlier, happily.
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Old 01-02-2019, 07:24 PM   #932
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2018 - up 1.9% although I'd have to admit I've been out of the market now for a few years. 100% in short term CDs and Treasuries. Just for perspective my 5 yr cumulative return is only around 3%. For anyone else who's stayed in the market the past five years their cumulative total return should be much higher. I believe the 5 yr cumulative Total Return (dividend reinvested) of the S & P 500 is over 50% so I think one needs to keep the one year returns in perspective.
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Old 01-02-2019, 07:58 PM   #933
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Originally Posted by USGrant1962 View Post
So I was looking at the numbers and got motivated. I typed everyone who gave an AA and return into a spreadsheet (40 data points since markets closed on 12/31). I thought you might find this interesting.
Interesting indeed, and thank you.
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FIRE in 2031 @ 50yrs old (+/- 2yrs) w/ a hypothetical $2.5mil portfolio, 3 appreciated homes worth $1.0mil and rental income to fund my gap years until RMD. Assets will go to an inherited IRA where I plan on watching the investments grow until I die or the trust gets executed.
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Old 01-02-2019, 10:38 PM   #934
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-3.1% on a 50/50 AA.
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Old 01-02-2019, 11:19 PM   #935
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+1.62% been mostly parked in VOYA FIXED PLUS III since S&P was at 2666.
Should have gained +3% in VOYA but lost a pretty penny on 3 stocks at the end of the year.
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Old 01-03-2019, 01:30 AM   #936
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I think it might be helpful when we start the 2019 thread to provide the guidelines that the 2017 thread came to a consensus on and I think we also discussed it at one time in 2018.

Every year, members discuss the guideline & agree on consensus somewhat. But some people comes in late to the thread without reading earlier "guideline" discussions and post whatever they think. Frankly, some don't get these simple terms: YTD investment performance. It's not hard to understand, really. Google "YTD" & "investment performance" and put them together using simple math. It's that simple, IMHO.
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Old 01-03-2019, 01:42 AM   #937
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A while since I checked in. Full year results:
  • Index trackers: -6%
  • Individual portfolio: -12%


Also had a full loss on a small VC investment, company went bust over Christmas.
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Old 01-03-2019, 06:22 AM   #938
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Any foreign equities? -2.86 at 60/40 sounds pretty good.
No, no international equities. 60% Total Stock, 40% Total Bond, and I was looking at the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund to show that 2.86%. It seemed easier than doing calculations from the two funds to arrive at the number.
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Old 01-03-2019, 06:27 AM   #939
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So I was looking at the numbers and got motivated. I typed everyone who gave an AA and return into a spreadsheet (40 data points since markets closed on 12/31). I thought you might find this interesting.
That's a nice chart.
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Old 01-03-2019, 07:56 AM   #940
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EDIT1 down -6.99% for 2018 @99% equities after including the remaining dividends.


1/4/2018 1.40%
2/1/2018 5%
3/1/2018 1.95%
4/1/2018 0.36%
5/1/2018 0.28%
6/1/2018 5.50%
7/1/2018 7%
8/1/2018 9.35%
9/1/2018 16.08%
10/1/2018 15.43%
11/1/2018 5.4%
12/31/2018 -6.99% YTD
Edited, only down -6.99% after including dividends
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AA (Stock/Bond/Cash ): 97.5/0/2.5% MIX (Small/Mid/Large): 25/25/50% BLEND(US/Foreign): 100/0%, REIT (Real Estate Equity): ~50% of Assets

FIRE in 2031 @ 50yrs old (+/- 2yrs) w/ a hypothetical $2.5mil portfolio, 3 appreciated homes worth $1.0mil and rental income to fund my gap years until RMD. Assets will go to an inherited IRA where I plan on watching the investments grow until I die or the trust gets executed.
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