Anyone worried about the Ukrainian situation?

[CaliforniaMan]

Not at all. The economic fallout of Russias takover of Ukrane will have about as much impact on the world's finances as the Russian takover of Hungary in 1956.

There will be much hot ir blown, otherwise, no impact.

IMHO this is a pretty unique situation, with Russia having a major southern naval base there, and so many ethnic Russians. Nevertheless it is a long term loosing position for Putin and Russia no matter what option they choose, both economically and politically.

In spite of calls from some US politicians for 'action', there wont be sanctions or anything else other than some symbolic G8 (G7?) meeting posturing, freezing some mostly symbolic transactions, etc. Both sides know they are not the only ones who get to move the chess pieces here.

Even now the Russians are seeing the economic effects in their falling markets and currency. And both the other European countries and Russia see the disaster a trade war would have.

Long term this is really bad for Russia, tips their hand (heavy hand) and makes their neighbors even more wary of ties with them. There will be more long dislike of Russia in Ukraine and an even stronger desire to be allied with the west.

Short term it makes Putin vastly more popular in Russia (they like strong shirtless leaders apparently), so short term is a plus for him. But he has to stop short of disturbing the economic conditions to severely or risk tipping Russia into a deep recession.

Other than as a source for raw materials and gas and oil, Russia is not too critical to the world economy, so I doubt there will be much economic impact in the west, assuming the west and Ukraine will still keep buying Russian energy resources.

We have been in much much greater areas of differences with Russia in the past. This is pretty localized and will likely remain so.

On the other hand... It made no sense for the assassination of a minor Austrian archduke to start a world war either. So I guess when you assume that people or countries will act in their best long term interest, you have to take it everything with a hopeful grain of salt.

 

[Nemo2]

Crimea, it's the grammar police!

No, no.....it's the Nomenclature Police.

 

[aja8888]

Knowing the Russians, they had this planned long ago. (Hey, I'm Russian )

 

[dtbach]

On the other hand... It made no sense for the assassination of a minor Austrian archduke to start a world war either. So I guess when you assume that people or countries will act in their best long term interest, you have to take it everything with a hopeful grain of salt.

Exactly! In fact WWII would not have happened if WWI had not occurred. This one small act ultimately got 100 million people killed.

 

[38Chevy454]

This is mostly a Ukraine civil war: West wants to be united with Europe, East wants to be united with Russia. Of course Russia wants to keep their naval base. The UN is worthless and any sanctions are hopelessly ineffective, just like the rest of the UN as a whole.

Back to OP question. No, I think this is just another blip demonstrating market volatility. Just ride it out.

 

[W2R]

I probably should be worried about the Ukraine, but I'm just not.

The whole thing seems like a tempest in a teapot up to this point. Lots of saber rattling and growling going on. Maybe it will be worth worrying about later, but I have no idea about the future.

 

[NYEXPAT]

Could this be the "Black Swan" event the markets have been anticipating? The most important advice my father ever gave me was: It's not whats so, it's what people think is so!

 

[sanfanciscotreat]

Glad I took some profits during the past two weeks when a certain stock hit a high. That plus proceeds from selling a house should keep us in eggs and bacon for at least a couple of years

 

[LOL!]

Glad I took some profits during the past two weeks when a certain stock hit a high. That plus proceeds from selling a house should keep us in eggs and bacon for at least a couple of years

Eggs & bacon? Didn't you mean Rice-A-Roni?

 

[Ready]

I'm going to make a prediction that one year from now, nobody is even going to remember that the Ukraine was in the news.

 

[sanfanciscotreat]

That too.
And by the way Russia is still upset over losing the Crimean War in the mid 1800's to Britain, France, et al.

 

[pb4uski]

So, are you saying I shouldn't put that new roof on?

Does the vendor offer an asteroid-resistant upgrade? Actually, for what you are paying it should be a standard feature.

 

[Cobra9777]

Suppose they had a fair election in Crimea and the population voted to secede from Ukraine and become a state of Russia. Wouldn't that be perfectly OK? Isn't that what democracy is all about?

So... you'd be OK with Texas seceding from the union?

 

[timo2]

The only effect there might be is Ukraine having to replace it's supply of natural gas on the open market after Russia cuts them off.

IMO the Crimea situation will have the same effect on the world economy as Northern Ireland did for most of the 20th century (none). When Stalin moved the original inhabitants of the Crimea out and replaced them with ethnic Russians it created a situation historically similar to Northern Ireland where the English had replaced the Irish inhabitants with Scots and English. After the Irish revolution those folks still wanted to be part of the UK. Russia is probably going for the same result in the Ukraine: A semi-autonomous Crimea as part of Russia.

 

[Spanky]

I'm going to make a prediction that one year from now, nobody is even going to remember that the Ukraine was in the news.

Did someone say that same thing about IRAQ?

 

[pb4uski]

So... you'd be OK with Texas seceding from the union?

Texas is still part of the Union?

Seriously, I see this Ukraine situation as an amusing bump in the road. Even if Russia were to takeover Ukraine then I predict Putin would have a coyote ugly moment when he wakes up.

Also see Urban Dictionary: coyote ugly

 

[gerntz]

Glad I took some profits during the past two weeks when a certain stock hit a high. That plus proceeds from selling a house should keep us in eggs and bacon for at least a couple of years

If you're invested for the long-term with allocation you can tolerate, why?

 

[gerntz]

If you're nervous about how you're invested and are thinking about changes over this situation, you're not properly invested to begin with. Crises happen over and over. Plan with this in mind.

 

[LOL!]

So... you'd be OK with Texas seceding from the union?

If the citizens voted for it, sure.

 

[BTravlin]

I don't think it will have a lasting effect on the markets but it could for people in that region. I went scuba diving the other day and there was a Canadian aboard who was originally from Ukraine. He is deeply worried about the prospects of civil war and what effect that will have on family and friends back home. He said they've already had their life savings wiped out twice before and doesn't think they'll be able to deal with a third time.

And Putin is a thug and a thief. He was elevated to positions of power by wealthy oligarchs who mistakenly thought they could control him. Most of them ended up dead or in prison. Stay tuned.

 

[timo2]

If the citizens voted for it, sure.

Which citizens the Texans or everyone in the other states?

 

[ERhoosier]

Anticipate a bit or a stiffening of NATO's spine, and more assistance (not troops, but tech and $$) to the eastern frontier with the [-]USSR[/-] Russian Federation.

Interesting that there have been some protests in Moscow. If this is played right, this could hurt Putin, but there's no present indication that it's being played right.

The urgent step for now is to halt the spread at Crimea, to assure eastern Ukraine that their long-term interests are with the west, not Russia.

Ukraine gave up the nuclear weapons on her territory after the USSR broke up. They did this in exchange for guarantees that Russia would stay out. So much for the much-dreamed of rollback in the nuclear club. The lesson has already been learned that nuclear weapons are a much more effective guarantee of neighborly nonaggression than any paper agreement.

Ukrainians, Georgians, Poles, Czechs--it helps to travel over there a bit. What they went through is still fresh on their minds. They will do a lot to avoid a repeat. I wish them all good luck, as they've had their share of the other kind.

Agree 100% that this ain't just about Crimea. IMHO- Crimea is Putin's already. Big worry is Putin may expand further & threaten Eastern Europe. And as you point out, after Russia's direct violation of 1994 Budapest Accord (and UN Charter) what other nation will voluntarily give up its nukes in exchange for what turns out to be utterly worthless international agreements. And lack of prompt, concrete response (preferably economic) to this violation of international law tends to embolden territorial actions by certain other nations.
Putin is playing chess while US & Europe (particularly Germany) are playing marbles......or perhaps have lost theirs This game will end ONLY when Putin finds it in his own best interest to do so.

 

[Turboslacker]

Non event relative to the stock market. Thanks for asking.

Sent from my HTC One using Early Retirement Forum mobile app

 

[Turboslacker]

So... you'd be OK with Texas seceding from the union?

That would awesome. Would be a great country to retire in.

 

[6miths]

I couldn't resist posting this often quoted clip...

Ukraine is game to you!? - YouTube