Brewer's Picks

[mountaintosea]

Congratulations! Two months ago you identified 7 stocks which you thought might do well in the coming months. I did not buy but decided to watch them instead. I put them into a watch list and...... well watched. According to my software that I use, your picks are up 12.7% in the last 61 days. Annually that's 53.1%.
So now that I know, that you know, what you are talking about, is it too late to invest in a few of these stocks, in your opinion (of course) ??

[LOL!]

I thought I was doing well to buy more stuff this summer. The new stuff was up 10%! I was a genius. Then I compared to a benchmark like SPY. It's up 12% since then as well.

[brewer12345]

Um, which were they? Did your return figure include dividends?

[wildcat]

Brew is da man but I am happy with my portfolio's 37% YTD. I don't share my picks either . I still slum around the forum waiting for Ha's picks too.

[maddythebeagle]

Make sure you subtract out bank popular.... I think it is a long term hold, though....

[brewer12345]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maddy the Turbo Beagle Make sure you subtract out bank popular.... I think it is a long term hold, though....

Patience, grasshopper.

[retire@40]

It's easier to be a hero in a bull market.

The better test is being able to find winners in a bear market.

[Nords]

Quote:

Originally Posted by retire@40 It's easier to be a hero in a bull market.

That must be why you feel qualified to critique another's picks without having posted any of your own.

Quote:

Originally Posted by retire@40 The better test is being able to find winners in a bear market.

We'll be waiting.

[retire@40]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nords That must be why you feel qualified to critique another's picks without having posted any of your own.

Nope. I just made a general statement with which I would think even you and Bernstein would agree. Posting my own picks, if I had any, wouldn't prove anything.

[Nords]

Quote:

Originally Posted by retire@40 Nope. I just made a general statement with which I would think even you and Bernstein would agree. Posting my own picks, if I had any, wouldn't prove anything.

I think that even Bernstein would agree that 12.7% in 61 days is beating the benchmark in any kind of market, especially when we're talking real companies with real cash flow & dividends, not just NASDAQ telcoms.

You're still a noodge.

[brewer12345]

Bear in mind that OP apparently has been tracking a group of dry bulk shipping companies. I think returns have actually been higher if you include dividends, but return is only half of the picture. These are small, mostly foreign companies operating in a volatile sector. Gotta have significant risk tolerance for that.

[LOL!]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nords I think that even Bernstein would agree that 12.7% in 61 days is beating the benchmark in any kind of market, especially when we're talking real companies with real cash flow & dividends, not just NASDAQ telcoms. You're still a noodge.

I'm a noodge, too. If the benchmark is EEM, that's up more than 12% in the last 2 months.
Which is riskier EEM? Or 7 stocks in dry bulk shipping?

Nevertheless, I enjoy the stock picks and ensuing discussion here.

[terminator]

The original poster said "61 days" but that's market days, not calendar days, based on the statement that 12.7% annualizes to 53.1%. It's more like three months of calendar time.

If we're considering shipping stocks, then the DJ Transporation index is more applicable than emerging markets -- and the DJT is up 13+% in the last three months. The Dow and S&P are up about 9-10% during that period.

I just assumed the original post was a joke. Who looks at performance over two months to determine whether someone knows what they are talking about?

In this case, it does happen that brewer is a smart guy. I like to read and research his suggestions.

[brewer12345]

Quote:

Originally Posted by terminator I just assumed the original post was a joke. Who looks at performance over two months to determine whether someone knows what they are talking about?

And you cannt ingnore risk associated with a position.

[retire@40]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nords I think that even Bernstein would agree that 12.7% in 61 days is beating the benchmark in any kind of market, especially when we're talking real companies with real cash flow & dividends, not just NASDAQ telcoms. You're still a noodge.

You really think Bernstein would look at a 61-day period when determining if someone is beating a benchmark?

I thought Bernstein thought in decades, not days.

[mountaintosea]

Hi all,
On 8/11/06 I added brewer's recommendation of 7 dry bulk shipping companies to a watchlist titled Brewer's Picks (oddly enough) on my TC2005. And yes it was 61 trading days. Sorry about that.

Quote:

Originally Posted by terminator I just assumed the original post was a joke. Who looks at performance over two months to determine whether someone knows what they are talking about?

Joke? No just watching stocks and trying to determine whether I should buy, sell or hold. I'm quite aware the DOW is up etc. Sometimes I wait too long. Usually the job gets in the way of really tracking on a daily basis. I looked at brewer's picks a few days ago and realized I might have missed another opportunity. Although I'm usually a silent lurker, I do make note of comments on this board regarding investments, cds etc.
Why not track people's recommendations?