brewer12345
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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I think this statement means it is safe to ignore anything else you have to say. Have a nice life.
Do you think Dow 18,000 was the bottom?
- Thread starter FANOFJESUS
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I think this statement means it is safe to ignore anything else you have to say. Have a nice life.
pb4uski
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
So say you. I've got to know brewer quite well from his posts over the years and when it comes to investing he's pretty savvy and prudent, so while it was a calculated risk I suspect that it worked out for him quite well.
Well, if I go back to the beginning of time, I too have never lost money in the stock market. I took your quote to mean you've never sold any stock at a loss - ever.
As far as the answer to your question - yes, I think stocks are going to hit new highs in the next 10 years.
But, as I've stated before, you and I are in hugely different positions. I'm retired and counting on my retirement savings making up a large chunk of my retirement income. You've got $7 million, with more than half in real estate. You're playing the game to see how much you can possibly accumulate. I have to be more cautious. If the market craters and stays there for 5 years, I'm in trouble - you're probably fine. Ending up with the most money possible isn't my plan.
I really don't know why you can't understand other people's positions.
targatom2019
Recycles dryer sheets
No, based on previous threads, you and couple people in this thread are timing the market which is not a right way of investing and timing the market is a fool’s errand. Pick an AA you are comfortable with, stay there, rebalance and good luck with selling low and buy back at high because institution investors with billion dollars will eat your money up in no time, so IMO !!!!!!
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Whatever. Bye.
Mountain skier
Recycles dryer sheets
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I did what many folks on this thread did who are retired or near retirement: sold equity gains to increase cash position to protect our futures.
pb4uski
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I think it came down to a view that the unprecedented suddeness of the decline suggested that there was a possibility that it might be different this time and I had no desire to see a lifetime of saving and investing be obliterated by a black swan event... especially since I have absolutely no desire or intent to go back to w*rk.
Agreed! Well put. Im retired, and sold stocks to protect my future.
At this moment in time, I don't have a lot of confidence in a quick recovery. I see trillions going into stocks/bonds, but our current bottleneck to restarting the economy seems to be testing, well testing, and a vaccine. And now testing has become a blame game.
Toddtheformeraccountant
Recycles dryer sheets
Yep. But I don't know for sure, and since I'm keeping a reasonable AA that I can live with, I don't really care.
RunningBum
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I'm also keeping a reasonable AA but I certainly do care if the market goes back down.
Is it too much to ask of you to dial it down a bit?
Nobody knows ... it's possible that it may revisit 18,000. But since most investors are already expecting that double bottom .. many will start to buy at 19,000-20,000. And it may not go that low - when some get ahead of others to load up.
Remember, the market going up may nothing to do with fundamentals. It's all about the Trillions that the Feds have to pump up the market. The Fed will support all big US companies. There's talk that the political powers won't let stocks go down and let China buy all strategic US companies for a dime a dozen.
Remember, the market going up may nothing to do with fundamentals. It's all about the Trillions that the Feds have to pump up the market. The Fed will support all big US companies. There's talk that the political powers won't let stocks go down and let China buy all strategic US companies for a dime a dozen.
harley
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
targatom2019
Recycles dryer sheets
Yes, sorry to all, have a wonderful day and please stay safe.
Not a chance to see 30,000 again this year! But that is why their is a market. When one buys, one sells, and both think they are right. So you are the buyer and I am the seller.
atmsmshr
Full time employment: Posting here.
Dow 15,000 anyone?
So what happens if stock analysts are reluctant to mark down earnings when major companies pull their yearly projections? (Apparently many analysts let their numbers ride until next earnings cycle reports are issued.)
Answer - irrational exuberance and whispering about the mystical V shaped recovery. Meanwhile, the monkeys in suits throwing darts have interest to keep the party going until the PE numbers start to look unsustainable.
Hold on to your wallets - the downdraft has started again. And this is just the first trickle of bad earnings reports. On the first quarter, of which only a portion was impacted by the WuFlu. Just wait until more bankruptcies are announced. And second quarter earnings are announced. And second wave of infections hit.
Dearly hope to be wrong on this prediction.
So what happens if stock analysts are reluctant to mark down earnings when major companies pull their yearly projections? (Apparently many analysts let their numbers ride until next earnings cycle reports are issued.)
Answer - irrational exuberance and whispering about the mystical V shaped recovery. Meanwhile, the monkeys in suits throwing darts have interest to keep the party going until the PE numbers start to look unsustainable.
Hold on to your wallets - the downdraft has started again. And this is just the first trickle of bad earnings reports. On the first quarter, of which only a portion was impacted by the WuFlu. Just wait until more bankruptcies are announced. And second quarter earnings are announced. And second wave of infections hit.
Dearly hope to be wrong on this prediction.
UnrealizedPotential
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I am guessing of course, but it seems to me a retest of the lows are underway. I have been waiting for it as it always seems to happen in most bear markets and we haven't had a retest yet.
If we do go lower, and no I am not cheering for it, but if we do go lower it will give those who have been sitting on the sidelines a chance to buy. They say bear markets usually end in despair with investors giving up in defeat and we have not seen that yet. There are some on other websites that are in denial that this is even a bear market. In my book it most certainly is a bear market, I just hope it doesn't get really nasty, but it might.
It's important to understand how the process works and for those who want to buy equities if given the opportunity to buy at lower prices.
If we do go lower, and no I am not cheering for it, but if we do go lower it will give those who have been sitting on the sidelines a chance to buy. They say bear markets usually end in despair with investors giving up in defeat and we have not seen that yet. There are some on other websites that are in denial that this is even a bear market. In my book it most certainly is a bear market, I just hope it doesn't get really nasty, but it might.
It's important to understand how the process works and for those who want to buy equities if given the opportunity to buy at lower prices.
I was a very bad senior citizen and spent some of my 'fun' money when the Dow dropped below 19000- (Amazon, Microsoft, Walmart &Tesla.). Time will tell but at my age life is too short not to have some fun, especially given all the money I'm saving while under-house-arrest for Covid 19
The Director of the CDC did an interview with the Washington Post today and said that the second round of COVID-19 in the fall/winter could be "far more dire" than round one, as it will coincide with Flu season. The market needs to look a lot further ahead. We got out at a little over 27,000 in the Dow and moved into a treasury fund. We expect we'll be keeping our powder dry for quite awhile. This recent bounce from the bottom always seemed too optimistic to us.
I also reallocated from 60/40 to 100% treasuries in 2019 after the yield curve inverted. The Spanish Flu had three waves of infections with the second wave was the most severe. I also agree that the recent bounce is too optimistic given the number of layoffs and the impact on the global economy.Very unlikely a V-shape recovery will occur in the USA based on what is happening in China. CCP have lifted the "shelter-in-place" but the Chinese consumers are still fearful.
Yup, and Foxconn in China is not just cutting back on overtime for workers, but also cutting hours and workers altogether due to big dip in demand for iPhones. They brought all of the workers back to catch up with their supply, but now they've caught up, and demand is way down. It's going to take awhile for us to come out of this.
I'm with you, although I scraped 2019 gains in Jan and 3rd week of Feb, then bought back to raise stock allocation about 4% 3 weeks ago when I hit 40% stocks, then sold the rebuy last Friday.
At least it's amusing. I've never sat on 30% cash before, but If we get near 18000, I'm going back in to raise the stock allocation above the 40% floor, again. If it breaks 18,000, I'll buy at 5% intervals down until I'm down to 2 years cash.
At least it's amusing. I've never sat on 30% cash before, but If we get near 18000, I'm going back in to raise the stock allocation above the 40% floor, again. If it breaks 18,000, I'll buy at 5% intervals down until I'm down to 2 years cash.
audreyh1
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Why do you say that? If you have the funds available, especially annual spending money already, the DOW level on any given day shouldn’t keep you from spending.
audreyh1
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Well, I think the second round of COVID-19 is going to occur this summer.
+1
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