That's the $64,000 question.Bull or bear 3x ETF? It makes a big difference.
I'm thinking heads=long, tails=short.
That's the $64,000 question.Bull or bear 3x ETF? It makes a big difference.
It came with big drops in housing prices, plenty of foreclosures, and unemployment exceeding 10%.
There is an extreme confidence in stocks issued throughout this thread that is interesting to me from a investment indicator view. The anguish of 2009 has been utterly vanquished, though our hero’s at the Federal Reserve still bear the weight of 4.5 Trillion in debt purchased (equal to 60% of all US government debt issued at our optimistic outlook of October 2007) they used to pull us upon their shoulders from the mortgage mania investing malaise, and no dispersal of the burden of that debt appears to be forthcoming.
That's the $64,000 question.
I'm thinking heads=long, tails=short.
The dice have no memory. The coin can’t recall the last toss. And the stock market doesn’t care about your investment history.
Here's a good, current visualization of how long it has been since a correction https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbear.pdf. The coloring choice is pretty bad - bluish purple are corrections greater than 5%, and pinkish purple are bears.
Figure 1 (2008-2018) is pretty, Figure 2 (2000-2009) is ugly.
Nothing but up since January 2016.
Being a car guy, I need to know what you bought!
I have a 2009 Pontiac Solstice with over 400 WHP that I only put 600 miles on last year. Living in Ohio and having kids makes it very difficult to get it out. The good news is, my parents are moving to Arizona in 3 months and I'm secretly giving it to my Dad. He worked 47 long years and doesn't like spending money, but he won't have a choice in the matter
This thread reminds me of the threads and posts in October of 2007 and the flak I encountered when a member posted that he was already 100% in stocks and wished he had more money to invest after the “correction” of the first few days of October — the stock market had fallen in the summer about 10% and then rose back to the level it had been and began to fall off in October and I merely posted that is how markets top, when everyone who wants to buy has their stock quota. By 2009 most of the confidence had been eroded by the large losses, however the bond component really kept portfolios from disaster. There is an extreme confidence in stocks issued throughout this thread that is interesting to me from a investment indicator view. The anguish of 2009 has been utterly vanquished, though our hero’s at the Federal Reserve still bear the weight of 4.5 Trillion in debt purchased (equal to 60% of all US government debt issued at our optimistic outlook of October 2007) they used to pull us upon their shoulders from the mortgage mania investing malaise, and no dispersal of the burden of that debt appears to be forthcoming.
All solid observations and I think you are correct. While the market can move strongly on bursts of emotion, in the long run it reflects the economy at large, which is still improving. When the LEI turns down, then the bear will come.This is a short term blip, and it's an opportunity to buy. Maybe it will slip further, but not for long....
Personally, I think all the good news possible and then some has been already been baked into the 2017 early 2018 rally, including low interest rates and low inflation. Now there will be headwinds, IMO.All solid observations and I think you are correct. While the market can move strongly on bursts of emotion, in the long run it reflects the economy at large, which is still improving. When the LEI turns down, then the bear will come.
Looks like there wasn't a down 10% decline from 2004 through 2007 either.My point exactly. 2016 may seen like a long time since a correction, but if you compare the 2011 to 2015 period, that was even longer. We got close in 2012, but 2012, 2013, 2014 didn't have them, so that annual 10% correction rule has not held this decade as we've only had four so far: 2010, 2011, 2015 and 2016. Technically a correction is a 10% decline or more as Yardeni notes below the graph.
But you are right in that there haven't even been 5% drops since early 2016.
Seriously, I do not see anything yet that can cause the market to drop as it did in 2002 or 2008. It's just the high valuation that only needs a nudge to trigger a correction.
That said, looking forward we will not have the outrageous increase of the last couple of years. The prospect of improving economy is already baked into the price. So, more volatility, but not substantially higher highs.
I will look at these gyrations as opportunities to trade in/out a bit to pick up a bit more money, as the return looking forward will be ho hum as Bogle and many others have said (and they were made fun of).
You can always convert to enough cash inside your IRA to cover your RMD. Then pull it out anytime during the year.I am seriously considering taking our RMDs tomorrow. Our returns ytd are stellar and if Friday reflects a change in market direction having extra cash in a taxable account will give us the opportunity to buy back at a lower price point. Another option would be to convert RMDs to cash in the tIRAs and let that $ sit earning interest in a money market account until there is something I want to buy in our taxable account.
We aren't big spenders as you can see that interest growing tax free in our tIRAs is worthy of taking into account.
What would you do?
The market's fate on Monday and beyond will be determined by the outcome of The Big Game today. I just don't know which team winning will be good for the market.