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elusive 5% drop
Old 09-10-2021, 11:05 AM   #1
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elusive 5% drop

Been waiting to rebalance some dividend cash (less than 1%) into the market.

Mean while dow has gone up 15-20%. Now I just feel silly.
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Old 09-10-2021, 12:11 PM   #2
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Join the club. I have been sitting on a war chest of cash from profits taken for awhile now. Waiting for a good opportunity to redeploy into some good dividend stream producing positions. Waiting and waiting and waiting. (:
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Old 09-10-2021, 12:11 PM   #3
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Been waiting to rebalance some dividend cash (less than 1%) into the market.

Mean while dow has gone up 15-20%. Now I just feel silly.
I've been waiting a correction for 8+ years now. Still have added to equities in that time but waiting for a 5%+ drop to dig out the piggy bank 7 convert some FI to stocks, but when?
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Old 09-10-2021, 12:17 PM   #4
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I'm waiting for a good drop, probably so is everyone else since everyone saw how the last big drop was a terrific buying opportunity. This will of course mean any drop will get bought back up and not end up being a big drop. ...

Now that Pandemic Unemployment money has stopped, the market has gone down 4 days in a row.
Could this be all sorts new young investors getting UI , have started to sell and certainly stopped buying as the extra cash has dried up ?
I'm only considering those young folks that moved back to parents home, of course some folks used the Pandemic UI extra money for food.

Maybe of course there is no explanation.
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Old 09-10-2021, 12:21 PM   #5
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I stopped trying to figure it out when things started popping in April of 2020. There is little rhyme or reason to the market and guessing is a fool's game. If I have excess cash, I immediately invest it, no matter what the market is doing.
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Old 09-10-2021, 12:28 PM   #6
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I've been waiting a correction for 8+ years now. Still have added to equities in that time but waiting for a 5%+ drop to dig out the piggy bank 7 convert some FI to stocks, but when?
What happened to the March 2020 drop?
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Old 09-10-2021, 12:37 PM   #7
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Been waiting to rebalance some dividend cash (less than 1%) into the market.

Mean while dow has gone up 15-20%. Now I just feel silly.
That’s why I simply rebalance when warranted rather than waiting for some usually elusive entry point.
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Old 09-10-2021, 12:38 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yakers View Post
I've been waiting a correction for 8+ years now. Still have added to equities in that time but waiting for a 5%+ drop to dig out the piggy bank 7 convert some FI to stocks, but when?
What happened to the March 2020 drop?
Yeah, did you miss that huge 30+% one? Admittedly it only lasted a few days……
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Old 09-10-2021, 01:17 PM   #9
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I stopped trying to figure it out when things started popping in April of 2020. There is little rhyme or reason to the market and guessing is a fool's game. If I have excess cash, I immediately invest it, no matter what the market is doing.
+1

I stopped guessing in 1993, and just stay in.
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Old 09-10-2021, 02:00 PM   #10
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I stopped trying to figure it out when things started popping in April of 2020. There is little rhyme or reason to the market and guessing is a fool's game. If I have excess cash, I immediately invest it, no matter what the market is doing.
+1. I used to think I was smart enough to probably beat the market. Now I'm smart enough to know I probably can't.
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Old 09-10-2021, 02:16 PM   #11
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What happened to the March 2020 drop?


We’ll, at least I didn’t sell anything, bought very few stocks, it all just went too fast for me, so I was buying slowly on the way down and before I could continue it was all over.
Not unhappy but not likely to change future strategy,
Plan to buy again slowly, maybe haven’t learned anything
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Old 09-10-2021, 02:21 PM   #12
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Old 09-10-2021, 02:49 PM   #13
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I'm right in my retirement year, which according to the many threads on SORR, this is supposed to be the most conservative year of my life, the next five years determine whether I will barely make it, have a vacation home, or even have to go back to...work, for a few extra years at most. So partially because of that, partially because I would like to get into value investing with 5-10% of my portfolio, and see nothing obvious while I am currently learning the ropes, I decreased my position from 80/0/20 to 65/15/20 by buying short-term TIPS using TSM stocks a few days ago.

My honest reasoning for not doing this earlier, was 1) I felt that while stocks have been overvalued since 2019, COVID would cause a forced slowdown that would stall out the occurrence of a recession by an extra 2-4 years, and 2) I wasn't seeing crazy speculative things happening yet, which usually occurs a year or two before a bubble pop, the sort of crazy things that have been occuring in late 2020, and all of 2021, starting with GME/bitcoin/housing market...etc, ironically, some of this speculative behavior also seems to be coming from people getting cooped up in their homes because of covid.

To sum it up, I believe, we are not due for a 5% drop, we are due for a full blown correction within the next 1-2 years. Which...will not be great for my SOR if I'm right, so I hope I'm wrong. I don't know though, and being out of the market for several good years is far worse than getting smacked straight in the face by a correction, so I still will always hold a majority of stocks, no matter what the environment.
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Old 09-10-2021, 03:00 PM   #14
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At almost 78 years old, I'm just glad I'm not the one dropping. Stay invested and smell the roses. Keep some cash for that "rainy market day". You will know it when you see it.
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Old 09-10-2021, 03:00 PM   #15
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The only investment regrets I have are the few times when I took funds out of the market or waited to invest waiting for a drop.
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Old 09-10-2021, 03:29 PM   #16
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As they say, if you try to time the market you have to be right twice. Once when you get out and then when you get back in. There's still probably people from 2008-9 waiting to get back in.
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Old 09-10-2021, 03:33 PM   #17
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As they say, if you try to time the market you have to be right twice. Once when you get out and then when you get back in. There's still probably people from 2008-9 waiting to get back in.
And think about how much money they have lost doing so.
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Old 09-10-2021, 04:00 PM   #18
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Been waiting to rebalance some dividend cash (less than 1%) into the market.

Mean while dow has gone up 15-20%. Now I just feel silly.
I guess I wouldn't be too worried about 1% (or less.) Where are you keep it now?
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Old 09-10-2021, 04:26 PM   #19
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5% of less than 1%. Doesn't seem worth worrying about.
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Old 09-10-2021, 05:33 PM   #20
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5% of less than 1%. Doesn't seem worth worrying about.
I agree .. it's nothing major ...
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