Good times are over...

H

HFWR

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If you believe Bill Gross...

Bill Gross Says the Good Times Are Over - Bloomberg

“When the year is done, there will be minus signs in front of returns for many asset classes,” Gross, 70, wrote in the outlook. “The good times are over.”
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“While timing the end of a bull market is difficult, the next 12 months will probably see a turning point, Gross wrote. Knowing when the ‘crowd’ has had enough is an often frustrating task, and it behooves an individual with a reputation at stake to stand clear,” he wrote. “As you know, however, moving out of the way has never been my style.”
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What? I thought this bull run will continue forever and ever, because, you know, this time is supposed to be different.

Many pundits, even Bogle, have said that the future return of investments will not be that high. The last few years were great, so if we have to give back some gains, it should not be surprising.

I still pray for the market to be flat though. Flat is good. Down, not good. It hurts my serenity.
 
NW-Bound said:
What? I thought this bull run will continue forever and ever, because, you know, this time is supposed to be different.

Many pundits, even Bogle, have said that the future return of investments will not be that high. The last few years were great, so if we have to give back some gains, it should not be surprising.

I still pray for the market to be flat though. Flat is good. Down, not good. It hurts my serenity.
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No argument one way or the other. There are plenty of knowns, unknowns, and unknown knowns and known unknowns that could cause either a temporary or permanent market correction. But I thought there was some irony in one more Bill Gross prognostication, especially given the drubbing he took in bonds...
 
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I think the Bond King has lost his Midas touch... quite a long time ago actually.
 
Of anything me is looking for a new bond guru, check out the recent presentations and interviews with Jeffrey Gundlach.
 
Some investors' money is following him... A pundit can get some followers, so it does not mean anything.

Back on his cred, I certainly hope he is wrong with my AA being 70% in stock. But anything can happen in the market, and I still pray for no worse than flat (flat is +- 5% for me.)
 
NW-Bound said:
Some investors' money is following him... A pundit can get some followers, so it does not mean anything.

Back on his cred, I certainly hope he is wrong with my AA being 70% in stock. But anything can happen in the market, and I still pray for no worse than flat (flat is +- 5% for me.)
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Same here, I predicted a -10% drop in the market this year so only -5% would ok with me. As is typical for me, I don't really have enough confidence to sell much stock and my aversion to bonds is well known.

I have been praying to the PenFed Gods that another 5% 10 year CD offering is in the works, or even a 3% 5 year one. I think I need to sacrifice something.
 
Would 10% of portfolio be enough? But then, you still lose money with the 5% CD.

Market gods can be generous, but also very punitive against greed.
 
No good deed goes unpunished - after 21 years of ER pretty much staying the course ala Bogle and semi-religiously following the 4% (2-6% range) my pals the RMD deduct will make me feel negative for the future unless Mr Market really does wonders.

heh heh heh - I predict my Curmudgeon Certificate and grumpiness will be the order of the day unless I score on one of my few good stocks. :rolleyes: :facepalm: :greetings10:
 
Bill Gross thinks he needs OMY until he can retire. Come on Bill 70 YO and still going to the office.
 
I guess he still wants to show the world that he's smart. Being rich is just not enough. Have you seen the article about how much he got paid? A cool $290M for him, and $230M for his friend-turned-enemy El-Erian, in just 2013. The amount of money he managed was mind boggling though.

See: Pimco Paid Billionaire Gross $290 Million Bonus in 2013 - Bloomberg.

Excerpts:

Pacific Investment Management Co. paid its former Chief Investment Officer Bill Gross a bonus of about $290 million in 2013, a year in which his Total Return Fund (PTTRX) trailed a majority of peers...

Mohamed El-Erian, 56, the former chief executive officer who previously shared the title of CIO with Gross, received a 2013 bonus of about $230 million...

Gross and El-Erian together were responsible for the firm’s almost $2 trillion in assets as co-CIOs in 2013...

Gross’s main fund, Pimco Total Return, trailed 65 percent of peers in 2013, after beating 90 percent of peers in 2012...​
 
Yep - clearly being a much-lauded guru is even more important than pulling down more money each year than you can spend on yourself in a lifetime.
 
One thing I forgot to add after reading this:

Gross’s main fund, Pimco Total Return, trailed 65 percent of peers in 2013, after beating 90 percent of peers in 2012...​

I have not followed Gross on the Web nor looked at his performance at Pimco, but as they say, you are only as good as your last year's performance. You could make people money for decades, and one bad year and they call you a loser. He must be doing something right to build his firm's assets to $2 trillion, right?

I remember that even Buffett was said to be losing his Midas touch when he trailed the S&P in 1999-2000. Gee whiz, how could Berkshire stock, any real company for that matter, compete with dot-coms stocks during the bubble of the late 90s? If Thailand's stock index beats the S&P in one year, do we say the US is losing out to Thailand?

I have a neutral view about Gross, and just find it interesting to watch to see how he's doing in his new job.
 
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Here's a link to the newsletter https://www.janus.com/bill-gross-investment-outlook
One interesting aspect - he drops names like never before, including implying hedge fund manager Ray Dalio concurs with his call for a drop in equity prices.

His track record on bonds and interest rate calls is good - unlike his calls on equity prices, which is dismal.
 
At the conclusion of his note:

What to consider in such a strange new world? High-quality assets with stable cash flows. Those would include Treasury and high-quality corporate bonds, as well as equities of lightly levered corporations with attractive dividends and diversified revenues both operationally and geographically. With moments of liquidity having already been experienced in recent months, 2015 may see a continuing round of musical chairs as riskier asset categories become less and less desirable.​

He did say some stocks will be OK. Does anybody have his list? Seems to me "equities of lightly levered corporations with attractive dividends and diversified revenues" are good for prudent investors at any time, and Gross said that these will even beat the market.

Fine with me. I'll just get more stodgy stocks, the likes that Buffett and Wellesley managers buy.
 
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