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How do you feel now? (4 Months later)
Old 07-26-2020, 05:54 AM   #1
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How do you feel now? (4 Months later)

Lot of people sold in March or changed allocation strategy by reducing equity exposure. Most did not change their strategy.

How do you feel now about your decision?
If you sold or reduced equities when do you plan to get back in?

I will ask same question end of next month.
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Old 07-26-2020, 05:55 AM   #2
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I feel fine.
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Old 07-26-2020, 06:27 AM   #3
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I've always been conservative but more so now. I feel great.
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Old 07-26-2020, 06:30 AM   #4
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I'm not much of a long term investor but my trading volume has changed,,, I've traded a lot more this year than ever before. Maybe 3 to 5 times as many trades in the past 4 months than I'd usually make. The wild swings have been interesting and reasonably profitable.
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Old 07-26-2020, 06:34 AM   #5
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I actually invested more into some aggressive funds in late March and had those bounce back 60%+. WAMCX, ARTYX and BGAFX. I trimmed a bit in the last month.
I am back to my base allocation which is conservative.
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Old 07-26-2020, 06:39 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TechLead View Post
Lot of people sold in March or changed allocation strategy by reducing equity exposure. Most did not change their strategy.

How do you feel now about your decision?
If you sold or reduced equities when do you plan to get back in?

I will ask same question end of next month.
I feel fine. Perhaps a little FOMO but I really think that market is way out over its skis given the current level of corporate profits (even forward profits) and the market is very richly valued and a possible bubble a la 2000.

Luckily, I'm in a position that I don't need to play... if/when the market has sensible valuations then I'll get back in, but I'm not that interested in investing in the hopes that some greater fool will come along.

I plan to get back in but will likely get back in by buying long-dated LEAP options rather than direct investment in equity ETFs.

I think the economy will get a lot worse before it gets better and there will be limits on what the Fed can do and for how long.

Next month is way to soon... things won't change that much in a month... ask us again in January or June 2021.
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Old 07-26-2020, 06:41 AM   #7
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I feel fine. I didn’t sell in ‘87, ‘00 or ‘08 - so asking in a month isn’t likely to change anything. And so far selling off in March was a costly mistake...
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Old 07-26-2020, 06:44 AM   #8
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Yes, so far... but we have a long ways to go before we are out of this mess.
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Old 07-26-2020, 06:46 AM   #9
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I think pain on the Main Street is just starting. Economy will get worst here.

Wall Street is doing fine. FANG and MSFT are all growing earnings/sales and they are now 25% of S&P 500. Jewels of US economy like Boeing (not doing well) will be saved by Fed at any cost.
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Old 07-26-2020, 06:56 AM   #10
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In early May I traded a VG Target-Income fund for the total bond index in my 403b when I became clear that I wanted to FIRE this summer and would need those funds for living expenses over the next two years using the Rule of 55. I just didnít want those near-term funds exposed to stocks at all. As it happens, the bonds have risen some so I feel pretty good but with a little FOMO and some discomfort about changing my AA. The AA will rectify in time as we spend those bonds though.
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Old 07-26-2020, 07:02 AM   #11
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The election year concerns me more than the economic impacts of the virus. I think the virus will be history by this time next year, manageable by a vaccine and Tamiflu type treatments.

A big shakeup in the elected officials could seriously change the way I invest, especially in biotech.

But this year has been quite profitable with the volatility. I have made 50% to 80% gains in accounts I manage.
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Old 07-26-2020, 07:05 AM   #12
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I feel good. Reduced our equity holdings in March from 55/45 to 45/55. It feels correct given our ages (57/65) and the times. The market as it is currently makes no sense to me. What remains in is money we won't need for decades, if ever. It was time.
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Old 07-26-2020, 07:07 AM   #13
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The biggest difference for me during the bear in March was I had my assets bucketized. I have 8 years of expenses in a bond ladder and another 10 years in other income producing assets. Equities fill the remaining bucket. So when equities went on sale, though I didn’t like it, I knew I could buy more knowing I had plenty of other assets to keep me going for years. If I looked at my money as just one big chunk, I may have been tempted to sell, rather than buy.
I know it’s a mind trick, but it works.
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Old 07-26-2020, 07:11 AM   #14
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Fine. I followed the same plan I've been using for years, and my assets reached a new peak last week.

There is a long way to go before we clear the current mess.
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Old 07-26-2020, 07:12 AM   #15
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I am pretty much on hold until the presidential election is over. I don't know how things are going to shake out and I am taking a wait a see attitude.
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Old 07-26-2020, 07:53 AM   #16
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I never sold. I'm feeling fine. These drops come and go. Panicking is not my MO.

I had hoped to make my annual Roth conversion near the low in order to convert more % at the same dollar amount. Unfortunately it didn't get as low as I thought it would (yet). It recovered fast. As a result, I never pulled that trigger. I'm not happy about that part. "Timing the market" was never my long suit.
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Old 07-26-2020, 08:10 AM   #17
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I had two anxieties late last year and earlier this year.

First, since I left MC last year, I had to sell my SARs by Q3 of this year. The SARs represented a material part of my net worth. My strategy was to dollar cost sell, while trying to balance tax implications. I sold in Sept, sold Dec, sold in Jan, and originally planned to sell in June. I accelerated selling in Mar when it was becoming increasingly clear that we were entering a period of high volatility.

Second, how to get back in the market. My original plan was to dollar cost average 10% of the cash based on my AA every month. When the market started sliding, I pinched my nose and started buying when the market dropped 5%, then 10%, then 20%, then 30%, and was planning to buy at 40% (which it never reached). Since then, I am in the process of continuing to purchase 10% monthly.

Overall, this worked out ok. My MC has since recovered and I would have made more if I just sold today, but given the situation, I'm glad that I pulled alot of my chips off the table during the drop. I also used some of my purchases to fund a DAF to mitigate some of the tax obligations this year.

I'm hoping by the end of this year, I could finally have my end state AA and not look at the market. Forced to try to time both the exit of my stock options and reentry into the market were stressful at times, and my preference is not worry about it.
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Old 07-26-2020, 08:32 AM   #18
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I went from 60/40 to 96/4 right before March low and now feeling really good but I might go back to 70/30 soon and PF is all time high. the 30% in total bond market covers 20x yearly expenses.
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Old 07-26-2020, 08:41 AM   #19
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I'm feeling good. I sold my bond index funds about a month ago, but decided to keep my Wellesley Fund partly because they seem to do a good job of managing the assets in it, including the 65% of it that is bonds. So Wellesley now makes up most of my bond portfolio. The rest is short-term investment grade bond funds and some cash.
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Old 07-26-2020, 08:42 AM   #20
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I became a dirty market timer for the first time in my investing life by going from about 62% equities to about 6% equities on Feb. 20th. I was obsessing on the market run-up and the Covid freight train I could clearly see coming. I discovered a valuable lesson as to my tolerance for risk.

If I had done nothing, I'd be close to same position as I am now. But a large cash position for now is helping me sleep. I would've HATED watching the big drop and would have gotten no joy from the run up since late March.

We are holding pat on our cash until I see some good news on the virus and definitely until after November.
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