Jan 2008 damage poll

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawg52 I'm glad I rebalanced when the DOW was lower. If we get back close to 14,000, I will be way ahead of my high last fall. Of course I will need to rebalance again. But who knows, we may test the lows again before that happens.

This has been an incredibly sharp rally in the stocks like financials and retail that were knocked down earlier.

Are we back to the bull after a short steep correction? Or are we experiencing a bear market rally?

My crystal ball has been stolen. All the money being pumped in by the Fed has to be a support. OTOH, going by history what we have experienced so far would be an unusual picture of a durable bottom.

Ha

[twaddle]

Quote:

Originally Posted by haha My crystal ball has been stolen.

I'll let you borrow mine. It's a bear market rally.

The good news is that, historically, they seem to last 1-2 months, so we should still have some room to run. I'm guessing until the next batch of earnings reports come out.

[VaCollector]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Meadbh Not looking.

!!

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by twaddle I'll let you borrow mine. It's a bear market rally. The good news is that, historically, they seem to last 1-2 months, so we should still have some room to run. I'm guessing until the next batch of earnings reports come out.

This is my leaning also. It's the old game of musical chairs. You expect the music to stop, but don't want to disappoint your greed by leaving too soon.

Why is life not less ambiguous?

Ha

[Nords]

8.3% off our all-time high, down 3.2% YTD. 92% equities and the rest cash. Reinvesting dividends (for now).

Quote:

Originally Posted by haha This has been an incredibly sharp rally in the stocks like financials and retail that were knocked down earlier. Are we back to the bull after a short steep correction? Or are we experiencing a bear market rally? My crystal ball has been stolen. All the money being pumped in by the Fed has to be a support. OTOH, going by history what we have experienced so far would be an unusual picture of a durable bottom. Ha

Considering all the fundamental improvements that have brightened the subprime & financial markets over the last couple weeks*, I'd have to go with bear-market rally.

I wonder if the Fed's frantic pumping is making people fear that things are even worse than they thought possible.

Regardless, our highs keep getting higher and our lows keep getting higher. The trend is good...

*Yes, that's sarcasm.

[Achiever51]

-2.59% from 12/31/07 thru 1/31/08
Portfolio currently 56.5% stocks/43.5% bonds (AA is 60/40)

[mb]

Normally I only look once a quarter but the Vanguard account is down 3.0% for the year as of 2/1.

74 % stocks
21% bonds
5 % cash

To lazy to look up the others.

MB

[joesxm3]

Quote:

Originally Posted by haha In spite of withdrawing about $15,000 in living expenses and est tax pmts, my accounts recently bested my all time high water mark reached last fall. Right now I'm about 80% equity- reached 90% briefly a few weeks ago. I don't really understand this good fortune, as some of my large holdings have been weak. Others, especially new specs bought during the January meltdown have recently been very strong. My method is to pray to whichever saint has momentum. Ha

I noticed that that KRE regional banking ETF that Brewer had been recommending seems to have recently gone up 30% from its bottom. Those who followed his advice probably had a nice momentum play there.

I am down 3% since January 1st and down 4% off my all-time high.

I am currently about 55% equity.

My numbers are probably a little skewed since I currently only track my total investable assets and my percentages are distorted by money that I save from my paychecks.

[DallasGuy]

Down 1.7% with 65% cash, 35% equities.

[FIREd]

Portfolio is down about 6.5% from all time high (Oct 2007). Our networth is down about 2.7% from that same high. We are pumping as much new money as possible into our investment accounts but we can't seem to be able anymore to prevent our networth from tanking when the market takes a beating. In the 2001-2002 downturn, it was fairly easy to plug the hole with new money, but I guess our portfolio has become too large for this strategy to work any longer. So in a way, it's not so bad!

[clifp]

Just ran the calculations down 2.2% from end of the year. Considering I moved my allocations from 70/30 equities to 80/20 and I have lots of financial stocks I think this is awfully good. I really was expecting to be down 4-5% for the year. My main account was down 18% from the Oct high at one point in Jan.


Go Giants if they win the market will go up!!!

[Spanky]

Quote:

Go Giants if they win the market will go up!!!

What if they lose?

[Notmuchlonger]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spanky What if they lose?

Market goes up because .... well you would need to buy my news letter.

[clifp]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spanky What if they lose?

The market go downs thus reconfirming the validity of this indicator.
Or the market stays the same since we are already down for the year.
Or the market goes up because the indicator is only accurate 80% of the time.

I am not retired I am a market pundit.

[Trapshooter]

Up 4.4% ytd through 2/1/08.

81% stocks, 19% cash

[tiredofwork]

Annualized Quicken IRR of 17.35% for Jan08, but one month doesn't mean much.

[hogtied]

-1.15%, 55% equities, soon to buy 5% more!

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by haha Are we back to the bull after a short steep correction? Or are we experiencing a bear market rally? Ha

I could see how the current market event could be more like 1998, with a couple of financial crises, but quick enough action taken that the pain is short in duration. Perhaps ARM resets are no longer a threat. And if they DO somehow manage to shore up the mortgage insurers, then it seems like the way has been paved to ease out of the mess.

Yet my gut says that a big bubble was blown, and it might take longer to settle out particularly now that the damage seems to have spread enough to influence the rest of the economy.

It's impossible to know. It does seem as if the economy hit some kind of brick wall late in Q4. 0.6% GDP growth? After, what, 4.8% in Q3? Unfortunately those GDP number get revised some much they make your head spin.

Whatever....

I did rebalance into some REIT funds and some funds with high exposure to financials in early Jan. Those funds are behaving very nicely YTD. It's mostly the growth stocks which are being taken out and shot.

Audrey

[Mavourneen]

My return in January was -1.12%.

Preferred stocks came back in a big way. My preferred position was down almost 20% in 2007. Also in January, Treasuries and GNMAs had a nice return. Real Estate was about even.

[KM]

Down 3.4% with 66% equities, 34% bond/fixed income.