S&P 500 Prediction 2024

[freedom2022]

Just realized today is the end of the year for the stock market.
Time to forecast for 2024: 5280.
It is the number wrote down on my note pad. It was the dollar amount of one of my GICs that I renewed today.

 

[ksr]

I am guessing 5032.

 

[audreyh1]

5485

Why not!

 

[Global Wizzo]

Having watched markets as an outsider and from a corporate perspective during my career,
My opinion and it is based on my observations and nothing else.

It appears that all corporation C-Suites do their best to drive stock price up at the end of the year. Purely to drive up compensation pay outs. January, the prices seem to tank.

I generally feel that greed drives the market more than any other factor. The other factors or drivers only influence greed.

Just my 2 cents but would enjoy others take.

 

[a60dan]

4769.83

 

[HI Bill]

5270. FWIW, I'm going with 7%+3.5% to account for inflation. I 'think' that the Fed will lower interest rates next year, we'll have a 'flat' soft landing, and everything will chug along. But looking at vehicle inventory on new car lots, the massive slump in real estate sales, etc., perhaps that's not realistic. But don't listen to me. I'm almost never right predicting the direction of the market. I just try to sell as early in January as possible to cover the year's expenses if the markets are 'up'. Very much more art than science.

 

[Toast]

5432

 

[Niuatoputapu]

5008

 

[ducky911]

5499

 

[Dash man]

5151

 

[tulak]

5555

 

[Closet_Gamer]

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

The last 90 days have been shaped by the (strong) rumors/hints/signals of forthcoming rate drops. The news of those drops (or lack thereof) will shape 2024.

I predict a flattish/underwhelming year.

4800

 

[freedomatlast]

5657

 

[Taco]

4488

 

[PatrickA5]

5198

 

[FLSUnFIRE]

5111.83


A bit more optimistic than last year.

 

[cyber888]

S&P 500 at = 5485

 

[Chuckanut]

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

The last 90 days have been shaped by the (strong) rumors/hints/signals of forthcoming rate drops. The news of those drops (or lack thereof) will shape 2024.

I predict a flattish/underwhelming year.

4800

Speaking of rumors, this morning I heard some [-]expert[/-] person on an NPR money show wondering what would happen to the stock market if people expected the FED to lower interest rates 6 times in 2024 instead of the 3 times they have mentioned. Really?

I will predict the S&P to close at 5,322 in 2024.

 

[jollystomper]

As with last year, I vote for a 1/10/2024 11:59PM Pacific time as the prediction deadline. Your last posted guess before that deadline is the one that counts.

 

[audreyh1]

Glad you have taken on keeping us all straight!

 

[Hank]

5130

 

[JohnDoe]

5403

 

[Enuff2Eat]

TYD 2023.... 4769, 24% ... oh my, oh my

Finally, 2024 is arriving... I will recoup most of my money in 2022.

As previously mentioned, local businesses don't seem to be as busy, but SP500 is more driven by rumors and hype than by Mom and Pop shops in my neighborhoods.

I recently talked to some folks in Asia. It sounds bad there.

Question. I am 100% index. Would you move some to bond in preparation for 2024?

Enuff

 

[jurgs01]

It is hard to predict with the election and central planning govt & fed skewing the market.

I would think we could go violently sideways, and end up between 4500 and 5000. I also could see a 3500 to bring valuations in line with reality.

 

[Enuff2Eat]

It is hard to predict with the election and central planning govt & fed skewing the market.

I would think we could go violently sideways, and end up between 4500 and 5000. I also could see a 3500 to bring valuations in line with reality.

dang... move some to bond??