What's the starting point? As I sold on Friday to realize gains in 2023 and to afford to eat next year I expect a strong rally in the last 4 days of the trading year.
I bet we end the year with low volume, not much activity or excitement. Maybe up another 1 to 1.5% on the S&P here next 4 trading days. People won't even be looking at portfolio's Friday, by then its too late to Roth convert...but I suppose you could take a final RMD or sell off high that last day to take your profit and earnings to live off the next year. Perhaps people ARE logged in and making that last roth contribution, and allocation...
I'm not down on the Wall St floor, nor in the hamptons rubbing elbows with the Wall St guru's...BUT I am hanging out with this incredible ER forum which is actually better than being in the hamptons!
IF we see some rate cuts next year, that mean less pressure on mortgage and finance so I would imagine cash capital investment, and things could take off more than 10%...probably not more than 20% though. This IS an 11 year run that finally got tested a couple times...especially in 2022.
I keep hearing people have cash...and I actually see it a little in the trends of discussion on this forum with people looking where to put there cash, where to allocate etc.
I noticed we had the most logged in users this year 11/16 which was when we SP500 basically cracked its July/year highs. People were literally scurrying around trying to find where to put cash.
If we have more all-time high users and the market is up into the new year, I will feel even better about how I am going to predict.
