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S&P 500 Prediction 2024
Old 12-23-2023, 07:41 PM   #1
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S&P 500 Prediction 2024

With a high interest rate, a slower housing market, and a relatively "slow economy" (I see many empty or vacant stores near me), 2023 surprisingly spiked up toward the end of the year and is now at around 24.0%. Why? What? How? I am unsure... but grateful that I am back where I was in early 2002.

Time to get out in 2024? Any thoughts, please?

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Old 12-23-2023, 07:48 PM   #2
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Oh, no, already?

I’ll wait until January.
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Old 12-23-2023, 07:56 PM   #3
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6,000.
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Old 12-23-2023, 08:10 PM   #4
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6000 is a dream
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Old 12-23-2023, 08:21 PM   #5
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kgtest and I are working on our podcasts. We won’t be able to predict 2024 until after we pick up our awards for first and runner up.
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Old 12-23-2023, 08:24 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by Jerry1 View Post
kgtest and I are working on our podcasts. We won’t be able to predict 2024 until after we pick up our awards for first and runner up.
Exactly
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Old 12-23-2023, 08:53 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enuff2Eat View Post
With a high interest rate, a slower housing market, and a relatively "slow economy" (I see many empty or vacant stores near me), 2023 surprisingly spiked up toward the end of the year and is now at around 24.0%. Why? What? How? I am unsure... but grateful that I am back where I was in early 2002.
Enuff
I sure hope you meant to type 2022 as the year at the end of the first paragraph.
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Old 12-23-2023, 09:10 PM   #8
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oops... thanks
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Old 12-24-2023, 03:51 AM   #9
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What's the starting point? As I sold on Friday to realize gains in 2023 and to afford to eat next year I expect a strong rally in the last 4 days of the trading year.
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Old 12-24-2023, 03:58 AM   #10
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Next decade equities will do well. AI is the new Industrial Revolution increasing productivity and therefore increasing earnings.

I bet my money on USA.
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Old 12-24-2023, 04:19 AM   #11
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I feel this will be a bullish year. There's an SA Article predicting 6000. I am feeling very bullish on AI and vote for 5500.
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Old 12-24-2023, 04:26 AM   #12
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2023 was due to a reversal in interest rate outlook.
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5000
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Old 12-24-2023, 04:27 AM   #13
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10% more than the close Dec 22, 5229.
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Old 12-24-2023, 07:43 AM   #14
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Is this the "official" prediction thread for 2024??
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Old 12-24-2023, 08:53 AM   #15
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I can't and won't "officially" guess until I learn the cutoff date for predicting. But it will be higher than the 4750 that it is today, when the clock strikes midnight 2024.
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Old 12-24-2023, 08:53 AM   #16
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Old 12-24-2023, 09:02 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by FLSUnFIRE View Post
What's the starting point? As I sold on Friday to realize gains in 2023 and to afford to eat next year I expect a strong rally in the last 4 days of the trading year.
I bet we end the year with low volume, not much activity or excitement. Maybe up another 1 to 1.5% on the S&P here next 4 trading days. People won't even be looking at portfolio's Friday, by then its too late to Roth convert...but I suppose you could take a final RMD or sell off high that last day to take your profit and earnings to live off the next year. Perhaps people ARE logged in and making that last roth contribution, and allocation...

I'm not down on the Wall St floor, nor in the hamptons rubbing elbows with the Wall St guru's...BUT I am hanging out with this incredible ER forum which is actually better than being in the hamptons!

IF we see some rate cuts next year, that mean less pressure on mortgage and finance so I would imagine cash capital investment, and things could take off more than 10%...probably not more than 20% though. This IS an 11 year run that finally got tested a couple times...especially in 2022.

I keep hearing people have cash...and I actually see it a little in the trends of discussion on this forum with people looking where to put there cash, where to allocate etc.

I noticed we had the most logged in users this year 11/16 which was when we SP500 basically cracked its July/year highs. People were literally scurrying around trying to find where to put cash.

If we have more all-time high users and the market is up into the new year, I will feel even better about how I am going to predict.
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Old 12-24-2023, 09:14 AM   #18
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Uh oh. All this positivity for 2024 is making me nervous!
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Old 12-24-2023, 12:48 PM   #19
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It unlucky to predict the S&P for 2024 before we have seen where it will end up for 2023...
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Old 12-24-2023, 02:25 PM   #20
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I am the person to ask. I actually do know the answer to this yearly enigma.

From 1/1/2024 to 12/31/2024, I can confidently predict that the S&P will either be up, or down. That is, unless it stays exactly the same.
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