The market isn't as bad as it seems?

[freebird5825]

Wow, did anybody look at Vanguard funds' YTD returns as of tonight? It is ugly... I am not going to post them here in case some of you guys would rather not know...

Made me look! j/k
i had adopted a policy of only checking once a week. so far i have violated that promise to myself at least 2x this week. i record the lowest portfolio value in the M* portfolio tracker using a cash entry of $1, and enter the date and port value as the description. um...it's been updated way too many times recently. Argh!

 

[2B]

Let me check my crystal ball on that one.... Oh, drat, it's not working today!! Guess I don't have the answer.

I am still hanging on for the rest of this roller coaster ride, and my knuckles are beginning to get a little white. With my ultra-conservative AA I really didn't expect to be losing six figures in less than a month like this.

I've stopped telling DW how much we drop. I'm certainly not planning on telling her the grand total. She totally ignores all the investment stuff but the last 2 months would probably really get her attention.

I've lost six figures just this week.

 

[Rustic23]

I concentrate of the 4% rule. If my portfolio is down $100,000 then I have $4,000 less to spend. The lower number is not a scary.

 

[W2R]

I concentrate of the 4% rule. If my portfolio is down $100,000 then I have $4,000 less to spend. The lower number is not a scary.

That's probably the best way to look at it. I will not retire until next year (waiting for health benefits), but I put yesterday's numbers into Firecalc and asked it for the maximum I could spend with 100% success. It gave me a figure that was several times more than I need for subsistence, so that helped me to feel a little more secure. It is still hard to stomach drops like this.

 

[unclemick]

That's probably the best way to look at it. I will not retire until next year (waiting for health benefits), but I put yesterday's numbers into Firecalc and asked it for the maximum I could spend with 100% success. It gave me a figure that was several times more than I need for subsistence, so that helped me to feel a little more secure. It is still hard to stomach drops like this.

Should be easier after 15 yrs of ER and thru several Bears since 1966 - but I get the 'Blahs' and just don't feel like buying top of the line - lined Carhart Men's Overalls from Tractor Supply - even through still within budget.

But the sun is shining and the birds are singing.

heh heh heh - between the Saint's in the cellar and a gloomy Market - may, I say may have to find a new hobby this winter. .

 

[W2R]

Should be easier after 15 yrs of ER and thru several Bears since 1966 - but I get the 'Blahs' and just don't feel like buying top of the line - lined Carhart Men's Overalls from Tractor Supply - even through still within budget.

Maybe they will go on sale sometime soon? With money so tight, I'd think that maybe we will be seeing some good discounts eventually. I really hope so since nobody can afford much these days.

But the sun is shining and the birds are singing.

heh heh heh - between the Saint's in the cellar and a gloomy Market - may, I say may have to find a new hobby this winter. .

That's so true. The market is the only thing worse than the Saints this year! You mentioned birds singing - - when I retire, I might get some cheap binoculars and begin birdwatching as a hobby. Sure would beat sitting in a cubicle. Lots of exercise and fresh air, and could be a lot of fun to learn to identify the little fellas.

 

[Hamlet]

I was amazed that the Saints managed to lose to my Vikings.

Your team is so much better than mine, but that night they just couldn't get it together.

Should be easier after 15 yrs of ER and thru several Bears since 1966 - but I get the 'Blahs' and just don't feel like buying top of the line - lined Carhart Men's Overalls from Tractor Supply - even through still within budget.

But the sun is shining and the birds are singing.

heh heh heh - between the Saint's in the cellar and a gloomy Market - may, I say may have to find a new hobby this winter. .

 

[soupcxan]

Dow in the 8800's today. I'd say the market is as bad as it seems.

 

[audreyh1]

I think the market is worse than it seems!!

Audrey

 

[Dawg52]

500 points and counting.

 

[ziggy29]

500 points and counting.

I guess -630 counts as "500 and counting."

 

[2B]

The S&P is down 75 points - over 7.5%. This is just endless. We're discounting the total collapse of the country.

I will say the boom in the E&C business is definitely over. Layoffs in some of our competitors has been announced. Apparently, the first to feel the ax got it yesterday. More today and Friday according to "well placed sources." So far, my firm isn't among them but it's only a question of time IMHO.

I'd rather not be thrown out onto the street right after losing $500 thou. (or more ).

 

[audreyh1]

So how much are we down this week so far?

Audrey

 

[ziggy29]

The VIX just hit an all-time high. This, my friends, is out and out panic.

So how much are we down this week so far?

I'd tell you, but then I'd have to reach for the bottle.

 

[d]

the perma-bears will be absolutely insufferable!

 

[soupcxan]

Dow in the 8800's today. I'd say the market is as bad as it seems.

Sorry, I should've waited 20 minutes, now the dow is in the 8500's.

 

[dex]

So it looks like the s&p at 800 is in the cross hairs.

 

[al_bundy]

The VIX just hit an all-time high. This, my friends, is out and out panic.


I'd tell you, but then I'd have to reach for the bottle.

it's an all time high since 1990 where our calculations go to. maybe next week i'll dump the Dow prices from Yahoo into a spreadsheet and then into a database and then write a query to calculate it back in 1929 - 1932.

 

[haha]

I'd tell you, but then I'd have to reach for the bottle.

Just be sure it's a bottle of booze and not pills.

It takes a long time to kill a liver with booze.

Ha

 

[2B]

The VIX just hit an all-time high. This, my friends, is out and out panic.


I'd tell you, but then I'd have to reach for the bottle.

I thought a VIX of 28 represented the market bottom? Oh wait. This is another can't miss technical indicator that does. I think the VIX is a good measure of panic but not of when the market will turn. It is logical to assume that the market bottom will occur when the cyclical level of panic peaks. We just don't know when.

 

[ladelfina]

more good news.. I saw a thread where a commenter reported having been contacted by Citi -an unsolicited call- with an offer to wipe out their outstanding balance for their sending in some reduced amount of cash (forget how much of a discount).

Could have been a false rumor but didn't seem like it. Can't find it now.. it was a day or two ago that I saw it. That really made me sit up & take notice, even tho' I have been very doomy&gloomy for months, as you all know (and taking no end of abuse for it here, I might add).

I'm just not a short-selling sort of person, to my financial detriment..

I haven't looked at my balances for a few weeks.. glad I did buy some GLD and upped cash and euros a bit even though the euro has fallen somewhat in the meantime.

 

[kumquat]

more good news.. I saw a thread where a commenter reported having been contacted by Citi -an unsolicited call- with an offer to wipe out their outstanding balance for their sending in some reduced amount of cash (forget how much of a discount).

Might be true. Back in the early 80's, my mother had a 30 year fixed mortgage at 4%, about 12 years in. Canadian mortgage rates went above 20%. The bank sent her a letter offering to let her prepay without penalty. I suggested, mostly as a joke, that the write back and offer to pay it off at 50 cents on the dollar, she did, they accepted.

 

[FUEGO]

more good news.. I saw a thread where a commenter reported having been contacted by Citi -an unsolicited call- with an offer to wipe out their outstanding balance for their sending in some reduced amount of cash (forget how much of a discount).

If this was for credit card repayment, then it is true. I participated in it on a few cards and received cash back equal to 20% of the amount of debt that I repaid, up to a certain amount. I believe I did this a few times and made a few thousand dollars.

 

[JohnDoe]

7300 is the bottom...perhaps tomorrow, perhaps next week. That is what my 8 ball told me.

 

[FUEGO]

Just an update - I took a look at where I am right now. Net worth rolled back 18 months to Mar 31, 2007 levels and the portfolio value rolled back to Sep 30, 2006 values (even though I've been pumping money into the portfolio these last two years).

But on the upside, yesterday's automated bi-monthly purchase executed for 37.8 shares of Vanguard's emerging markets index fund for $600 total. For that same amount of money, I would have only received ~18 shares about a year ago. In other words, I'm buying this fund at prices over half off what they were very recently.

In the short term this market correction is ugly on paper. In the long term this may just prove to be one of the best buying opportunities in my lifetime. Only time will tell. In the meantime, back to life - family, friends, career, intellectual pursuits, hobbies, etc - and let the portfolio do its thing! After all, the market isn't as bad as it seems.