Theory now is - Stock Market will skyrocket further because of the Ukraine-Russia War

[W2R]

That 90/10 view sounds more like class-warfare fuel than any explanation about the little guy not caring about the markets.

+1

I have been following the Dow since 1954. Anyway, even when I was literally "the little [-]guy[/-] gal", and had nothing invested I still cared enough to follow its ups and downs. Why? Well because often the ups and downs in the market can indirectly affect my life in various important ways other than changing the relative size of my own portfolio.

 

[Helen]

I also wonder about that stat (no links provided?).

At any rate, even if the 90/10 statement is true, I'm not sure that supports the conclusion that they "really couldn't care less what happens on Wall Street.". That 90% of the population may only hold 10% of the stocks, but if it is a considerable amount of their savings, I'm sure they do care. For many people, their only invested savings might be their 401K/IRA (or similar). And I'd expect those are typically 50% or more in stocks. So those people surely will care if they see their life savings drop in half!

That 90/10 view sounds more like class-warfare fuel than any explanation about the little guy not caring about the markets. And as MuirWannabe points out, you could still be concerned, even with no direct ownership, since a falling market often means layoffs. For someone with little/no investments, losing their job could certainly be more devastating than seeing a portfolio drop (and eventually recover).

edit/add: This link backs up the 56% number. More interesting to me is, 24% of those with household income below $40,000 own stocks.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx

-ERD50

Interesting, this is from the Motley Fool dated Nov. of 2021:

"The wealthiest 10% of Americans hold 89% of stocks, worth $35.87 trillion

While over half of American adults own stock, most don't own much -- 89% of stocks are held by the wealthiest 10% of Americans. Those holdings have a value of $35.87 trillion."
https://www.fool.com/research/how-many-americans-own-stock/


This article breaks down by age, what it takes to be in the top 10% of wealth in the US.
https://www.businessinsider.com/per...very-age-2019-8#76-to-99-years-old-1003800-12

 

[cyber888]

All i can think about and pray for is the people in the Ukraine. I could care less about my investments. Good people are getting killed for living on their own land. Sorry Mods if you need to delete this.

Don't get me wrong. I'm with Ukraine and praying for them and donating to their cause. Have been supporting Pres. Zelensky on social media. This is not being callous, but just stating what I observed in the market - I suggest you Donate to Ukraine now. I can translate for you everything he said on Twitter. I know everything happening in Ukraine today and have been following the news for hours and donating.

I'm also saying this - I prefer the US financial markets are stabilized in the face of Russian threats. And that we are not cowering to Russian threats, cyberattacks and Russian short selling.

I'm saying it's a good time to support the US financial market as a show of force against the Putin aggression.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa

 

[marko]

I see percentages of 56% of Americans owning stocks. And even those who don’t, care to some degree.

I'm always amazed at the number of people who are 'in the stock market' but don't even know it.

BIL is a retired school teacher. He was once railing about Wall St and then I asked him where he thinks his teacher's pension is invested. He said: "It's not invested! The money is just there!!" Ummmm.....ok.

Then there are those with 401k's and have no clue that they are part of 'the market'. These folks are also often the ones that call Wall St a 'casino'.

Even those working for a public company have their jobs tangentially connected the 'the market' even if they don't own shares.

 

[OldShooter]

Theory now is - Stock Market will skyrocket further because of the Ukraine-Russia War

Somebody's theory anyway. You can find pretty much whatever theory you like with a few Google searches. The practical reality is that nobody knows nuttin'.

 

[Ballhawker]

Look at prior start of interest rate increase cycles. Markets did surprisingly well following the start of interest rate hike cycles. Volatile at first, then up.

 

[garyt]

Shame on anyone who's biggest concern is how to make money when people are getting killed for living in their own country. This isn't political, I don't blame anyone in the US.

Mod's. I'm sorry if I'm out of bounds. Some things are more important than our own financials....people died today defending their country. I went for a walk and watched the stock market climb.

What a silly thought. So people can't be concerned with more than one thing at a time? Should people not go to work and just huddle around the TV watching the war in Ukraine unfold? I'm concerned with Ukraine, I'm concerned about my investments, I'm concerned about a lot of things.

 

[marko]

Shame on anyone who's biggest concern is how to make money when people are getting killed for living in their own country. This isn't political, I don't blame anyone in the US.

Mod's. I'm sorry if I'm out of bounds. Some things are more important than our own financials....people died today defending their country. I went for a walk and watched the stock market climb.

As awful and horrific all of this is, I don't think it's ever a good idea to let our emotions influence our financial decisions. There's little if anything we as individuals can do about this and watching CNN 23 hours a day contributes nothing.

Sadly, the world is full of horrors; if we waited for the perfect time to work/play/invest/live-our-lives it'd be a long, long time.

 

[Dtail]

As awful and horrific all of this is, I don't think it's ever a good idea to let our emotions influence our financial decisions. There's little if anything we as individuals can do about this and watching CNN 23 hours a day contributes nothing.

Sadly, the world is full of horrors; if we waited for the perfect time to work/play/invest/live-our-lives it'd be a long, long time.

Good post.

 

[lawman]

The government will continue to do what it has been doing and that is to add dollars. That's the problem..
It doesn't care about inflation. They can't pay the debt now much less if interest goes up..

 

[Stormy Kromer]

What a silly thought. So people can't be concerned with more than one thing at a time? Should people not go to work and just huddle around the TV watching the war in Ukraine unfold? I'm concerned with Ukraine, I'm concerned about my investments, I'm concerned about a lot of things.

I'm sincerely sorry if you think it is a silly thought.

 

[Stormy Kromer]

Well at least you "could" care less, which means you care some. Some people "couldn't" care less.

Anyway, I'm following all of those things. Many things matter to me.

Thanks for the grammar correction. I think we all agree we are concerned about what is going on and that peoples lives mean more than our investments....

 

[NW-Bound]

Today (Feb.25), we see the Dow up another +835 points and Nasdaq up +221. Again, institutions were buying.

The sentiment is that the Fed will slow down the interest rate hikes, and let inflation continue due to the war. I still think they will raise rate by 0.25 in March, but they are not going to speed up raising rates after that, and they will blame inflation on higher oil prices on the war, etc...

I think the market went up on Friday because of the news circulating that the two sides agreed to meet in Belarus. I don't know where this came from, but later it appeared that Putin ordered renewed attack on Kiev.

This market was trading on rumors. I wished a talk had happened and a cease-fire did realize, so that what the market anticipated would be true.

I am afraid we will see a big market drop on Monday. Bombs and missiles have been falling on Kiev. NATO countries have been sending arms to aid Ukraine. The US, Canada, and Europe have agreed to cut Russia from SWIFT. The war is escalating. It is very sad.

 

[Badger]

Somebody's theory anyway. You can find pretty much whatever theory you like with a few Google searches. The practical reality is that nobody knows nuttin'.

+1 In my experience over many decades I have found this to be the case for most things. At the very least they know way less than they think they do.


Cheers!

 

[eytonxav]

Aside from the Ukraine/Russia impacts, I feel the FED has been too slow to act thinking inflation would be transient, and that is going to come back and bite the market and our economy. The best thing for our economy would be turn up US energy production to levels at or above the early 2020 timeframe.

 

[CaptTom]

...I'm also saying this - I prefer the US financial markets are stabilized in the face of Russian threats. And that we are not cowering to Russian threats, cyberattacks and Russian short selling.

Very good point. This isn't just about Ukraine. This is part of a global anti-democratic and pro-authoritarian movement which has been gaining momentum. The Western democracies are almost all under siege from a number of different directions.

 

[skyking1]

Indeed. Ukrainian citizens rushed to defend their capital under attack.

 

[cyber888]

Very good point. This isn't just about Ukraine. This is part of a global anti-democratic and pro-authoritarian movement which has been gaining momentum. The Western democracies are almost all under siege from a number of different directions.

Thanks CaptTom .. the last thing I would hate to see is if Russia, creating massive Fear among American investors, can succeed in tanking the US stock market by another 30%. This is why I feel hopeful that big institutions are backing up the US Stock Market and it is going up, in spite of Russian aggression.

This is by no means Americans disrespecting Ukraine at all (that's not it at all). But this is in defiance of Russia trying to affect the United States financial markets and way of life. We must fight back and be confident.

 

[Markola]

Very good point. This isn't just about Ukraine. This is part of a global anti-democratic and pro-authoritarian movement which has been gaining momentum. The Western democracies are almost all under siege from a number of different directions.

A silver lining might be that the world is witnessing, real time, where this “movement” leads a country. I wonder if Russian banks will even bother opening tomorrow morning?

 

[GTFan]

I'm much more concerned about an isolated and possibly unhinged Putin raising the nuclear alert status than the stock market at this point.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

I'm much more concerned about an isolated and possibly unhinged Putin raising the nuclear alert status than the stock market at this point.

Right, forget the investments. The threat of nuclear war is what has me rethinking of retirement in some place like Costa Rica, though our kids would still be in the U.S. Putin is getting older and we all know that means he could be losing it mentally.

 

[mistermike40]

90% of stocks are owned by 10% of the people.

That means 90% of the population really couldn't care less what happens on Wall Street.

Not trying to be snarky, but that's not what that means.

 

[yhoomajor]

Markets went up on Friday when Biden/EU disclosed the sanctions and SWIFT was not in the sanctions array.

Over the weekend.. US/EU have emptied the barrel of their sanctions gun against Russia. Not only SWIFT sanctions, but US/EU are now seizing Russia's foreign reserves. That is pretty much declaration of war against Russia. Risk of Nuclear war with Russia has increased quite a bit over the weekend. I expect Markets to perform badly on Monday. Uncle Powell and band may show up and shore up the markets, so there may be a back-stop.

While this would hurt Russia in the short term.. in the long run we are pushing Russia into China's orbit. Eventually when US and China go head-head few years down the road, China may benefit substantially from uninterrupted energy supplies from Russia.

Back to markets.. I have a feeling inflation may increase substantially. I am also hearing cries for price controls in US. That is a possibility now. Under those scenarios.. can someone elaborate whether markets will do better or worse? (Not a rhetorical question, but keenly interested to know if price controls will bring stability to financial markets.).

 

[GenXguy]

That is pretty much declaration of war against Russia. Risk of Nuclear war with Russia has increased quite a bit over the weekend. I expect Markets to perform badly on Monday. Uncle Powell and band may show up and shore up the markets, so there may be a back-stop.

While this would hurt Russia in the short term.. in the long run we are pushing Russia into China's orbit. Eventually when US and China go head-head few years down the road, China may benefit substantially from uninterrupted energy supplies from Russia.

Back to markets.. I have a feeling inflation may increase substantially.

You sure are a ray of sunshine.

I don't think Powell can do much now to shore up markets since skyrocketing inflation needs to be addressed. So, be prepared for the market to fall further.

There's a poll about that here:
https://www.early-retirement.org/fo...m-and-recovery-time-113080-7.html#post2739393

 

[Lsbcal]

I'm amused by all this back and forth here.



P.S. Hoping for an up year and recovery from Jan-Feb declines.