mathjak107
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- Jul 27, 2005
- Messages
- 6,205
just looked on ray lucia's site and i no longer see the bucket calculator...is it gone?
True. But that doesn't necessarily make a sound plan. I mean, the "100% cash" was up 2% in 2008, but that doesn't make that a sound long-term retirement plan.The people with established systems have to rework them to get out of the obvious question for the next decade. "How would your plan have worked through 2008/9?" Unless the market goes up 100% in the next 12 months, there's a lot of rework to do.
That's what his book said. That's probably why his website is "under renovation."What are you suppose to do? Use your hole in the bottom bucket 3 money to replenish bucket 1?
The risk with a "bonds first" strategy is that you create the same situation that Ray Lucia creates intentionally. If equities perform with a good average performance over that time frame, you have more money to spend. If you get the swan dive we're in now, you get a rude awakening during the latter phase of your retirement.I think more frequent rebalancing is the key to avoiding the doomsday scenario. Just how often and/or how much is unclear but mechanically that should avoid the situation of a 70 yo 90% in stocks.
Such rebalancing is well in line with conventional planning so at least it's not a weird or gimmicky plan. I would still lean to a "bonds first" withdrawal strategy, just not as dramatic as Lucia's scheme given what I know now.
Agree, which is why I figure I'll dilute it with periodic rebalancing on the light side. So it's not a full-blown "bonds first" approach, but more of a "no rush to tap into stocks just to rebalance yearly" deal.The risk with a "bonds first" strategy is that you create the same situation that Ray Lucia creates intentionally. If equities perform with a good average performance over that time frame, you have more money to spend. If you get the swan dive we're in now, you get a rude awakening during the latter phase of your retirement.