Thinking of buying a Tesla Model S. Someone talk me out of it!

[TromboneAl]

Glad that you are happy with your new car, enjoy!

But that last statement is what has me scared about these interim "self driving" capabilities. It sure sounds like you are being lulled into a (perhaps false) sense of security. How do you know "felt safe" equates with "is safe"?

-ERD50

Valid point. People are much less good at multitasking than they realize.

In 1999, the first time I received a cell phone call when I was in the phone, I immediately drifted out of my lane, even before answering. It was a phone like this:

I've never used a phone while driving since.

Perhaps I should have said that I concluded that since the car was doing the driving down the freeway in perfect conditions for autopilot, and with my hands on the wheel, the chances I'd need to take control yet be distracted were very slight.

https://youtu.be/ATfHb-egOek?t=25

 

[TromboneAl]

If you ever want to know where your spouse is the app will show you the car’s location and driving speed. You can follow the car on google maps and know exactly what time you need to put dinner in the oven to have it ready when they come home.

Fantastic. Can't wait to use that next time Lena is a little bit late and I'm starting to worry.

 

[wmc1000]

In 1999, the first time I received a cell phone call when I was in the phone, I immediately drifted out of my lane, even before answering. It was a phone like this:

https://youtu.be/ATfHb-egOek?t=25

Although mine was what was known as a bag phone since the battery was in bag and the phone handset was on a cord I did the same thing. Scared me half to death at the time!!!

 

[NW-Bound]

Glad that you are happy with your new car, enjoy!

But that last statement is what has me scared about these interim "self driving" capabilities. It sure sounds like you are being lulled into a (perhaps false) sense of security. How do you know "felt safe" equates with "is safe"?

-ERD50

In the recent news, I read that the NHTSA was investigating a couple more cases of Tesla accidents that were suspected to be related to the self-driving.

Musk promised Tesla 3 to be fully self-driving to be used in a fleet of taxicabs in 2020. That is this year. He said Tesla 3's owners would be able to sign up for their cars to offer rides to make some money. I am still waiting to see his autopilot improved to that point (at least Level 4). Can it read the traffic lights yet, like Waymo's cars have been doing for a few years already?

 

[gerntz]

What is the real world range loss at 32F versus advertised range or fully charged range? At 20F? At 0F? Have a hard time finding that data. THere should be a mileage vs. temp curve available. At what temperate are the claimed range tests run?

 

[TromboneAl]

What is the real world range loss at 32F versus advertised range or fully charged range? At 20F? At 0F? Have a hard time finding that data. THere should be a mileage vs. temp curve available. At what temperate are the claimed range tests run?

Here's one (might be obsolete. Shows 29% reduction in range below freezing):

From: https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/15/tesla-range-plotted-relative-to-speed-temperature-graphs/

Here's one for the volt:

 

[gerntz]

Here's one (might be obsolete):

From: https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/15/tesla-range-plotted-relative-to-speed-temperature-graphs/

Here's one for the volt:

Thanks even if off some. It's better than what I had.

So if I want to go ~75 mph in an X at below freezing the range is about 200 miles. Got it. Sounds great around town. The average daily temp where I'm at in Jan is like 30F.

 

[ncbill]

Turn your Tesla into a PHEV:

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-plugin-hybrid-engine-conversion-obrist/

 

[TromboneAl]

If I say "My butt is cold" it turns on the seat heaters. Not making that up!

I tried drifting out of my lane when I wasn't on autopilot, and it pulled me back into the lane.

 

[Fishingmn]

We take off in our Model 3 tomorrow for winter in CA.

I've never been a car guy but man do I love my Tesla. So fun to drive, very comfortable (and I'm 6'3") and the technology is amazing. Add in the safety and environmental benefit on top of it all.

To each their own but I'm pretty happy with the purchase. Find an owner to give you a ride if you've never ridden in one before.

 

[NW-Bound]

^^^ Autopilot does work well perhaps 95% of the time. And that's how gullible people get fooled, because they are so impressed.

It's the other 5% that can kill people if they happen to be inattentive.

PS. Musk promised to have a Tesla going coast-to-coast on the freeway with no human intervention back a few years ago. I am still waiting for that demo.

 

[braumeister]

If I say "My butt is cold" it turns on the seat heaters. Not making that up!

I tried drifting out of my lane when I wasn't on autopilot, and it pulled me back into the lane.

Amazing technology in modern cars. Mine is nowhere near a Tesla, but I can say "I'm hot/cold" and the car will change the cabin temperature up or down. It will also shake the steering wheel and begin to bring me back into the lane if I drift (although I don't like that feature and normally keep it turned off). I can hardly imagine what wonders will be available in cars five years from now.

 

[Fishingmn]

PS. Musk promised to have a Tesla going coast-to-coast on the freeway with no human intervention back a few years ago. I am still waiting for that demo.

Does Elon Musk make lots of claims that turn out to be very aggressive timing wise - yes.

That said, Tesla is years ahead of pretty much every other car maker from a technology side.

 

[NW-Bound]

Here as in other threads, I acknowledge that Tesla cars have many advanced features that other cars do not have. They are good vehicles.

What irks me is the BS claim about the autopilot capability that can get not just the driver hurt, but innocent bystanders killed. Here in autopilot technology, Waymo cars have superior capability due to their very extensive and expensive sensor suite.

Of course Waymo cars are not for sale, but Google has stated time and time again that they will not release unsafe vehicles. They are still doing tests where I live. Can't make an errand trip without seeing a few on the road.

 

[TromboneAl]

What irks me is the BS claim about the autopilot capability that can get not just the driver hurt, but innocent bystanders killed.

We all know this joke:

There are two people in a wood, and they run into a bear. One starts lacing up his boots. The other says, "What are you doing? You can’t outrun a bear.” To which the second person responds, “I don’t have to. I only have to outrun you.”​

The point is that autopilot will be a success (although it won't be seen as such) when it is safer than human drivers. I suspect this is already true. 1.25 million people die in road crashes each year! That's how well the humans are doing. The most dangerous part in a car? The nut that holds the wheel.

It will have to be much better before people accept it, of course.

But, having had our Tesla drive us around for a week, I think we're further from autonomous driving than people think. There have been plenty of times when I've taken control. I probably could have trusted it, but I'll never know.

 

[Winemaker]

Regardless of whether a car is on autopilot or a human behind the wheel, state laws in the US require a licensed operator/student in the driver's seat, who is legally responsible for the operation of the vehicle.

 

[ERD50]

We all know this joke:

There are two people in a wood, and they run into a bear. One starts lacing up his boots. The other says, "What are you doing? You can’t outrun a bear.” To which the second person responds, “I don’t have to. I only have to outrun you.”​

The point is that autopilot will be a success (although it won't be seen as such) when it is safer than human drivers. I suspect this is already true. 1.25 million people die in road crashes each year! That's how well the humans are doing. The most dangerous part in a car? The nut that holds the wheel.

It will have to be much better before people accept it, of course.

But, having had our Tesla drive us around for a week, I think we're further from autonomous driving than people think. There have been plenty of times when I've taken control. I probably could have trusted it, but I'll never know.

But that is bad logic. Before I go further, to go back a few posts, I'm also impressed by what Musk/Tesla has brought to the industry. It needed shaking up, and for that I hope they can keep pushing the industry forward. Some of the same reason I hoped Apple survived in the late 80's, to keep pushing Microsoft, if nothing else. These days, I root for Linux.

On that logic - just pointing out the number of human caused accidents does nothing to show that AI is better. No more than quoting the number of cancer deaths means that xyz must be a miracle cure. And as we went over time and time again on the old "Self Driving Car" thread, the "better 95% of the time" could be the problem. If that lulls people into a sense of security (and we've seen some of this already), it could actually make things worse overall. How good is someone going to be at reacting to a problem, if they are a 5% driver? And now this "part time driver" needs to take over at the worst possible time, after maybe not paying attention, because the car usually does so well? I see the potential for big problems with a 95% system. We won't know until we get more data, but we should be wary.

-ERD50

 

[NW-Bound]

... having had our Tesla drive us around for a week, I think we're further from autonomous driving than people think. There have been plenty of times when I've taken control. I probably could have trusted it, but I'll never know.

You are a prudent Tesla owner, and know the limit of the system. There are plenty of others who seem to trust the system more than it is capable of. A few have paid with their life.

Now, I suspect more drivers get into an accident with the autopilot engaged than we have read on the news. It's because only fatal accidents get the media coverage. If Tesla cars are as safe in a crash as the tests have shown, then of course more drivers will walk away from a crash.

If your Tesla drives into a ditch or get into a fender bender while on autopilot, who is going to know? The driver is not going to tell the world of his dumb mistake of trusting the autopilot. And Tesla will say "tough luck" and "serve you right", as they admonish you to be watchful and to take over at any time, right?

 

[Slow But Steady]

I've always been a car guy, but I've never had an expensive car. Now you've got me thinking about buying a Tesla.

 

[Fishingmn]

Now, I suspect more drivers get into an accident with the autopilot engaged than we have read on the news. It's because only fatal accidents get the media coverage. If Tesla cars are as safe in a crash as the tests have shown, then of course more drivers will walk away from a crash.

Tesla is quite transparent with their data and every car automatically sends data at all times.

Therefore, we know that in Q3 Tesla drivers who had Autopilot running had an accident for every 4.34 million miles driven. This improved from the year earlier when it was 1 for every 3.34 million miles. This is also better than the national average for all driving which is 1 for every .5 million miles (admittedly this includes non-highway miles which aren't as safe).

Since Q3 we've seen even more autopilot improvements including cone recognition and better merging/lane changing functions (for those with the full self driving).

https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport

 

[Ready]

Somehow when the topic of Tesla comes up the conversation leads to a discussion on autopilot and full self driving. While I recognize these are interesting things to talk about, they don’t define the Tesla driving experience.

I don’t have either autopilot or full self driving on my Model 3. I could turn them on if I wanted to pay for them but I don’t find them all that necessary for my driving routine.

But even without those features I still find my Model 3 to be the best car I’ve ever owned and the most technologically advanced car in the world. Nothing else even comes close to the overall experience of driving one. You just have to try it for yourself to know what I mean.

 

[Koolau]

Our son bought a model 3. He installed several solar panels (with battery back-up), believing he could run the car from them. Between the needs of his garage-sized house and the car, he has to take advantage of all the free charging stations (actually relatively few in his area) while running about. Bottom line, he has often had to pay for super-charger service (about 13 cent per mile) in order to insure reliable car service. Since it is his only car, it makes sense to go that way. However, it would take a lot more solar panels to be completely off the grid as was his original desire.

Personally, I found the car to be a technological wonder and infinitely interesting. It's reasonably comfortable for 4. Getting in and out is problematic for me. I don't bend the way I used to. YMMV

 

[aja8888]

I don’t have either autopilot or full self driving on my Model 3. I could turn them on if I wanted to pay for them but I don’t find them all that necessary for my driving routine.

I'm with you on this. And you know, in the 50+ years I have been driving, I have never felt I needed an autopilot to help me drive. And I still don't.

 

[NW-Bound]

Tesla is quite transparent with their data and every car automatically sends data at all times.

Therefore, we know that in Q3 Tesla drivers who had Autopilot running had an accident for every 4.34 million miles driven. This improved from the year earlier when it was 1 for every 3.34 million miles. This is also better than the national average for all driving which is 1 for every .5 million miles (admittedly this includes non-highway miles which aren't as safe).

Since Q3 we've seen even more autopilot improvements including cone recognition and better merging/lane changing functions (for those with the full self driving).

https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport

OK. Thanks for the info.

It shows that the average Tesla owner is not as dumb as some irresponsible (non-)drivers I have seen on Youtube. Now, I can believe that the imperfect autopilot can still enhance safety when it is monitored by a careful driver.

I wonder if similar statistics are available for cars with safety features such as lane-deviation warnings, automatic emergency braking system, etc...

 

[RunningBum]

Hmm, I didn't realize they opened up a new Tesla dealer/service center within 2 hours of me. Before it was more like 3. My concern has been that it's too far and I'm under the impression that no other service center can service it. 1:45 is still a long drive, but it seems like regular service is less frequent than other cars. This starts to put it in my mind that it might make a good replacement for my Miata whenever I part with it.

It would gall me a bit that I couldn't use such a pricey car on a long road trip for the way I do them--very brief stops every ~3 hours--but those are pretty rare these days.

It's at least on my radar now.