Nibbling along the edges?

[NYEXPAT]

Nice close today! No action taken. target area (2700) on the S&P not reached. Hopefully we can rise a bit more before the elections?

 

[NW-Bound]

Near market close, the indices slumped and it looked like a repeat of earlier days. But then, in the last hour they climbed again and closed at the high of the day.

Buyers are coming back, it looks like. Now the fear of missing out (FOMO). Hurrah!

Quicken says +$44K for me today, not counting the MFs that still have to report. Only a few hundred $K until I am back to where I was.


PS. I closed out 4 more covered-call contracts, in order to free the shares to be ready to sell covered calls again.

PPS. The gain from the above contracts brought the pocketed option premiums to more than $10K for the month of October. Still nowhere to make up for the total portfolio drop, but that's $10K I would not have if I did no trades.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Well, I certainly managed to screw up that SPY trade. Called the buy yesterday before the close, but got stopped out today (no loss) and then up it went.

Note to self: This is why you don't like using stop loss's, dumb a**.

Oh well, still had a good day given other holdings were much more important than the uplift on the SPY purchase.

In other news, bought some REZI. I own HON and this is a spin-off, first trading around $28 when issued. Today was the first day of post-spinoff trading and the stock got tanked, down 18.4%. Spin-off's quite frequently go down at first because many folks with small lots simply toss (sell) their shares. I decided to quadruple my position in it (but still small). I think it especially got whacked given the markets recent downturn. I also picked up earlier this week another HON spin-off, GTX.

All I can say is that Honeywell's 2016 spin of ASIX has done well.

Some of the better holdings I've held over the years have been spin-offs. From Baxter there has been Baxalta, Edwards Lifesciences (EW), Allegience, Caremark. All have done well post spin-off, and three of the four were later acquired by other firms.

Similar goodness of spin-offs from Marriott: Host Marriott (HST), Host Marriott Services (HMS, now Marriott Host), Marriott Vacation (VAC). HST spun off Crestline Capital (senior living REIT)

I like these special situation stocks - and while not always true, spin off's tend to do well because they don't have to compete for scarce internal corporate capital and resource allocation.

 

[NW-Bound]

Same as you, I usually added enough to the spin-offs to at least make them a round lot.

However, I have not had much luck with them, which lingered around and trailed the market. Or was it that I did not give them enough time, but I usually sold them within 2 or 3 years with only meager gains.

 

[NYEXPAT]

The SPY hit the 300 day MA today (my goal), I sold out all of my holdings this morning. Now I can sit back for awhile and watch the gyrations simply out of curiosity.

 

[Lsbcal]

The SPY hit the 300 day MA today (my goal), I sold out all of my holdings this morning. Now I can sit back for awhile and watch the gyrations simply out of curiosity.

Have you back tested this? Not quite sure how you are using the 300 and 200 DMA. I have only tested the 200 DMA with bands of maybe +-1%. Lots of whipsaws but does OK.

 

[NYEXPAT]

Have you back tested this? Not quite sure how you are using the 300 and 200 DMA. I have only tested the 200 DMA with bands of maybe +-1%. Lots of whipsaws but does OK.

No, Piercing it on the downside is a pretty rare event (every 5 years or so) and does not have much significance unless you break it on the downside by 4-5% according to Meb Faber's research (based on a 365 day moving average).

Once broken (closes below it) it becomes an overhead resistance level that traders will shoot for in the short term (my strategy and exit point for the trade, I initiated two days ago.)

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Same as you, I usually added enough to the spin-offs to at least make them a round lot.

However, I have not had much luck with them, which lingered around and trailed the market. Or was it that I did not give them enough time, but I usually sold them within 2 or 3 years with only meager gains.

REZI (mentioned in my previous post) is +5.6% this morning on a Barron' article that it is a cheap IoT play.

Since I am babbling on about my holdings, I present you OLED. I bought some around $92 (April) and then doubled down around $81 (June). The stock then rallied up to around $130 mid-August, sold off to just under $100 in the October romp. The last three days have been straight up, especially yesterday up over 10% on an article about robust Samsung OLED production. Today is earnings day for OLED and the stock is up another 5 points after selling off on the opening. This is my biggest % winner on the year. What to do, what to do. [Obviously some are thinking a good report.]

 

[Lsbcal]

No, Piercing it on the downside is a pretty rare event (every 5 years or so) and does not have much significance unless you break it on the downside by 4-5% according to Meb Faber's research (based on a 365 day moving average).

Once broken (closes below it) it becomes an overhead resistance level that traders will shoot for in the short term (my strategy and exit point for the trade, I initiated two days ago.)

I took a look at the 365 day moving average over the last 10 years. See chart below from BigCharts. Looks like the event is not too rare but the recent piercing is only a small amount compared to past ones like in 2015 and 2016. Am I interpreting your post correctly? Note I'm not trying to criticize with these questions, just trying to learn something.

 

[NW-Bound]

REZI (mentioned in my previous post) is +5.6% this morning on a Barron' article that it is a cheap IoT play.

Since I am babbling on about my holdings, I present you OLED. I bought some around $92 (April) and then doubled down around $81 (June). The stock then rallied up to around $130 mid-August, sold off to just under $100 in the October romp. The last three days have been straight up, especially yesterday up over 10% on an article about robust Samsung OLED production. Today is earnings day for OLED and the stock is up another 5 points after selling off on the opening. This is my biggest % winner on the year. What to do, what to do. [Obviously some are thinking a good report.]

I never knew of OLED, but looked at it earlier out of curiosity. They just released earnings, and both top and bottom lines showed good increases from last quarter. Share price dropped -22% in after-hour trading as of this writing. What gives? Did I misread the report or something?

Apple also reported after market close. I have not looked at the numbers (I do not own the stock), but share price dropped -5% in after-hour trading as of this writing.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

I never knew of OLED, but looked at it earlier out of curiosity. They just released earnings, and both top and bottom lines showed good increases from last quarter. Share price dropped -22% in after-hour trading as of this writing. What gives? Did I misread the report or something?

Apple also reported after market close. I have not looked at the numbers (I do not own the stock), but share price dropped -5% in after-hour trading as of this writing.

Yes, it was quite the after-hours blood-letting for me. Apple is my largest holding (down about 15 points AH) and I own a decent slug of OLED (Univseral Displays, down a nice 35-36 points AH).

Universal Displays has a bunch of Organic LED patents from which they do licensing and also provides materials used to build OLED displays (e.g the iPhone X, XS, XSmax, and Samsung 9 are OLED). Samsung (who makes the screens for the iPhone OLED models) is a customer of OLED (as are others).

OLED got whacked due to a revenue and earnings miss, but as you saw both were up decently for the quarter. More importantly (I think) in terms of the sell of was the management statement: the “magnitude of the second-half pick-up in our material sales is not shaping up to the degree that we had earlier forecasted."

I haven't yet listened to the conference call, but did pick up a little more in AH @ 94-95 $ range.

We shall see on this one. The OLED displays are beautiful, e.g. a side-by-side comparison of the iPhone 8 vs X shows. Power consumption is a mixed bag vs. traditional LCD, blacks/dark colors are more efficient on OLED but bright whites take more energy.

I was a little surprised given Apples average selling price # (which continues to show a trend towards the high end phones) that it didn't help OLED - at least a little - in AH. Perhaps it was just that the supposed downbeat Apple news (which wasn't really) help to keep pushing it lower. That's why I picked up a little more in AH, but quite frankly this is a gamble.

My cost on this is lower, but I certainly would have been much better off selling this today before the earnings (which I was musing about in my earlier post). Oh well.

 

[NW-Bound]

OLED got whacked due to a revenue and earnings miss, but as you saw both were up decently for the quarter. More importantly (I think) in terms of the sell of was the management statement: the “magnitude of the second-half pick-up in our material sales is not shaping up to the degree that we had earlier forecasted." ...

The market sentiment has changed. Some of the semi companies that I own released quite decent earnings and projections, yet did not rebound that much from their lows. And they already had P/E lower than that of the S&P. It's like investors do not believe that the projections that they are told.

On the other hand, defensive stocks like consumer staples have had a stealth rally. All this shows the market is shifting into a defensive stance to prepare for a lower growth period ahead.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

The market sentiment has changed. Some of the semi companies that I own released quite decent earnings and projections, yet did not rebound that much from their lows. And they already had P/E lower than that of the S&P. It's like investors do not believe that the projections that they are told.

On the other hand, defensive stocks like consumer staples have had a stealth rally. All this shows the market is shifting into a defensive stance to prepare for a lower growth period ahead.

Yep. I just sold the OLED I bought last night in after hours (for 94.42) @ 102.95 just before the close today. Decided that a 9% profit on a 1 day trade was acceptable given I still hold more of it.

ETA: This lot is in a tax-deferred account, so that made the decision easier.