So we FINALLY have a SEC approved BTC ETF!

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But if you think the future financial services will use crypto the answer is overwhelmingly yes. The question is more about how much %.
I beg to differ. I think we will see digital currency in the US and advanced Western Economies. There is no reason to believe any of the current crypto-currencies, exchanges or crypto products will play a role.
Asking questions to learn more is good. But lots of comments come from the 'it is a scam' perspective not from a genuine interest to learn.
Just ignore them. Really, few in this discussion are calling crypto a scam. Most are just expressing doubt about the value statements and many assertions, which, you have to admit, are lacking in hard data and fact.
 
I beg to differ. I think we will see digital currency in the US and advanced Western Economies. There is no reason to believe any of the current crypto-currencies, exchanges or crypto products will play a role.

ok well that is interesting. What makes you think the current crypto will not play a role in the future use of crypto technology?

Obviously many projects will die or not evolve but some should make it through just like some of the early internet projects.
 
For example, everyone knows that Bitcoin uses vast amounts of electricity, furthering the world’s reliance on fossil fuels.

ok lets say yes it does. Where does the energy usage rank amongst all the other things we do? Is it possible that energy spent on Bitcoin processing is better that energy spent flying around the world on hoildays? How much energy does the internet use? I have no idea. Transport and shopping for trivial reasons is surely much worse.

The energy issue is something to be addressed and many cryptos do not use 'proof of work' to complete their tasks.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/res...-the-energy-of-the-banking-or-gold-industries

"Galaxy Digital compared the Bitcoin network's energy consumption with that of the banking system as well as the gold industry, since the largest cryptocurrency is often compared with the two. The report found that banking and gold consume around 263.72 TWh per year and 240.61 TWh per year, respectively, while Bitcoin consumes much less energy — 113.89 TWh per year."
 
I tried to find some crypto and crime information.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/hailey...ins-role-in-illicit-activity/?sh=6bf3b5833432

"The majority of cryptocurrency is not used for criminal activity. According to an excerpt from Chainalysis’ 2021 report, in 2019, criminal activity represented 2.1% of all cryptocurrency transaction volume (roughly $21.4 billion worth of transfers). In 2020, the criminal share of all cryptocurrency activity fell to just 0.34% ($10.0 billion in transaction volume).

According to the UN, it is estimated that between 2% and 5% of global GDP ($1.6 to $4 trillion) annually is connected with money laundering and illicit activity. This means that criminal activity using cryptocurrency transactions is much smaller than fiat currency and its use is going down year by year."
 
I tried to find something on energy use for different cryptos.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2...-u-turn-which-coins-are-more-climate-friendly

Bitcoin (BTC): 114 TWh. ...
Ethereum (ETH): 44 TWh. ...
Dogecoin (DOGE): 7.8 TWh. ...
Bitcoin Cash (CSH): 3.4 TWh. ...
Litecoin (LTC): 3.2 TWh. ...
Ethereum Classic (ETC): 1.7 TWh. ...
Monero (XMR): 1 TWh. ...
Bitcoin SV (BSV), Dash (DASH) and Zcash (ZEC): Less than 1 TWh each.

And for data centers (internet)
https://davidmytton.blog/how-much-energy-do-data-centers-use/

"Globally, data centers were estimated to use between 196 terawatt hours (TWh) (Masanet et al, 2020) and 400 TWh (Hintemann, 2020) in 2020. This would mean data centers consume between 1-2% of global electricity demand."
 
Originally Posted by Markola View Post
For example, everyone knows that Bitcoin uses vast amounts of electricity, furthering the world’s reliance on fossil fuels.
ok lets say yes it does. Where does the energy usage rank amongst all the other things we do? Is it possible that energy spent on Bitcoin processing is better that energy spent flying around the world on hoildays? How much energy does the internet use? I have no idea. Transport and shopping for trivial reasons is surely much worse. ...

It makes no sense to compare the added electrical consumption of Bitcoin to other areas.

With that "logic", we can just hand-wave any new use of energy as OK, as long as it isn't as large as something else. That isn't going to help us reduce energy consumption.

And, using bad logic just undermines whatever point you are trying to make, so it isn't serving you well.



... The energy issue is something to be addressed and many cryptos do not use 'proof of work' to complete their tasks.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/res...-the-energy-of-the-banking-or-gold-industries

"Galaxy Digital compared the Bitcoin network's energy consumption with that of the banking system as well as the gold industry, since the largest cryptocurrency is often compared with the two. The report found that banking and gold consume around 263.72 TWh per year and 240.61 TWh per year, respectively, while Bitcoin consumes much less energy — 113.89 TWh per year."

That sounds really, really bad. Bitcoin uses 43% as much electricity as the entire banking industry? And I assume the value transacted is a small fraction of what the entire banking industry uses, so that's a terribly inefficient use of resources that affect our environment.

We have mandates to block the sales of ICE cars in the future, Energy Star ratings on appliances, and all sorts of regulations on energy (some good, some bad, but regulated none-the-less). Seems like these entities should go after Bitcoin as well - maybe we need to only transact using 'Energy Star" rated currency?

-ERD50
 
I think we will see digital currency in the US and advanced Western Economies.

The devil will be in the details.

A digital currency has the potential to make every transaction visible to the authorities.

Take the Chinese digital Yuon, unlike Bitcoin which is decentralized and not controlled by any country, the Chinese digital Yuon uses a "private blockchain” where every transaction goes through infrastructure controlled by the Chinese government. Basically, it will help the government monitor and control their economy.

Will a digital dollar so the same? Only Time will tell.
 
Originally Posted by Markola View Post
For example, everyone knows that Bitcoin uses vast amounts of electricity, furthering the world’s reliance on fossil fuels.
Huh? By this logic that fleet of Tesla electric cars, which everyone knows use vast amounts of electricity, are furthering the world’s reliance on fossil fuels.

mpeirce, your logic breaks down because in the case of EVs, *if* they are replacing *some* of the fossil fuel used by ICE/hybrids, then EVs are reducing the world’s reliance on fossil fuels.

But Bitcoin appears to use much more per energy per value than present currency, so that is adding to our reliance on fossil fuel.

I'll preemptively point out, before someone starts talking about renewables, that any additional electrical demand must be met with additional energy. Renewables energy is given priority as the 'fuel' is free, so (except for rare occasions) any additional electrical demand has to be met with non-renewables, which can be throttled up/down with shifting demand. So Bitcoin mining and EVs are also mostly using fossil fuel. But if an EV can do that more efficiently (including electrical generation) than an ICE/hybrid, that will reduce fossil fuel consumption. But all things considered, an EV doesn't really use that fossil fuel much more efficiently than a good hybrid.

-ERD50
 
I beg to differ. I think we will see digital currency in the US and advanced Western Economies. There is no reason to believe any of the current crypto-currencies, exchanges or crypto products will play a role.
Just ignore them. Really, few in this discussion are calling crypto a scam. Most are just expressing doubt about the value statements and many assertions, which, you have to admit, are lacking in hard data and fact.

Bitcoin is here to stay, it is backed by the richest people in the world, gaining more proponents and adoption processes every year and presently has larger market capitalization than all but 8 nation's stock markets. And the smartest people on the world are working on uses, of which the younger generation is flocking into that technology. To claim it is nothing would be to claim that Google is nothing more than bits in a computer utliziing electricity. Google market cap, which is just about even with Bitcoin and Euretheum, does nothing but suck electricity with a giant computer farm calculating searches and holding information in the cloud until you retrieve it by providing the proper software keys.

That 15 trillion of bonds with a negative yield are trading electronically in the world as an investment and all they promise is to give you is an electronic debit in your account in the future for less of your money than you pay today is a main driver of Bitcoin continuing to flourish. The time value of money no longer is a logical item of investment in today's markets due to the way central banks have evolved economic finance.

https://www.ft.com/content/1bcfde6e-753d-4096-addc-e8545c89c7a9

Just as an Excel download from Microsoft is not nothing but something valuable, so is the bitcoin. It enables fast seamless monetary systems to exist and they are growing and will continue to grow. Yes Bitcoin is used by criminals just as adoption of the internet was used by criminals in a multitude of ways. But the reason it is used and the speed with which it can be used highlights the utilitary nature of the bitcoin.
But as decentralized finance continues to grow Bitcoin and Euretheum will continue to be the backbone of a mountain of digital finance that is going to overtake the world in the next 10 years.

Google uses 13 terawatts of electricity Bitcoin 81 terawatts https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertbryce/2020/10/21/googles-dominance-is-fueled-by-zambia-size-amounts-of-electricity/?sh=5314a44268c9

Total Electricity used in the creation, maintenance and playback of youtube videos is 5 X the amount of electricity used by Bitcoin.https://thefactsource.com/how-much-electricity-does-youtube-use/ If the powers that be truly want to reduce carbon footprint then just ban the internet and reduce electricity usage by 10 percent. Yet I think we all know how silly that is and will never happen and likewise the idea that bitcoin will be banned becuase of electricity use is equally silly as young people are those that are most interested and participating in the technology. The answer lies in future more energy efficient computers, not eliminating a process that has shown it's value. Over time the lightbulb produces far more light for a single watt of power than it ever did and solutions will arrive for computer chips as well. Nanotechnology will probably eventually solve this "problem". Carbon nanotube chips have shown the posibility of reducing electricity usage by 98%.
 
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Thanks. I was just providing information.

But information that is not applicable is typically used to distract from the real issues. It's more like dis-information. And like I said, just serves to weaken your argument.

It's like justifying stealing $20, because some other guy stole $2,000. You are going to have to do better if you want to have an impact and influence people here.

-ERD50
 
But information that is not applicable is typically used to distract from the real issues. It's more like dis-information. And like I said, just serves to weaken your argument.

It's like justifying stealing $20, because some other guy stole $2,000. You are going to have to do better if you want to have an impact and influence people here.

-ERD50

I sent relevant links for people to read and make their own decision.
 
I wonder if the excessive demand will speed up other ETF approvals.
 
... the crypto evangelist won’t address genuine questions. If someone raises a legitimate question, the crypto evangelist simply says “incorrect” without addressing it. For example, everyone knows that Bitcoin uses vast amounts of electricity, furthering the world’s reliance on fossil fuels. The evangelist simply replies, “No, it doesn’t,” usually followed up with something along the lines of “You’re too old to understand.” It’s maddening, like that SNL skit with the tobacco lawyer.

2 comments.

First, there is a BIG difference between a "crypto-evangelist", and a "Bitcoin evangelist". (If this is not clear, google something like "the importance of Bitcoin maximalism", or simply read up on why it is that the SEC considers BTC an asset vs almost all other "alts and shitcoins" as unregistered securities). It a bit like calling some en "equities evangelist", without distinguishing between specific equities.

Second, you actually provide a great example of the misunderstanding of people who take a negative view of Bitcoin (without really understanding the incorrectness of their statements or biasses). For example, the "Oh but Bitcoin uses the amount of electricity of country X" FUD. Such statements are usually made without looking at what proportion of that energy comes from renewable sources of energy that would not ever be utilized for anything else. (Think hydro power in remote locations, solar and wind power in desserts uninhabited by any significant populations, geo thermal in remote locations, etc). And then thinking about the economic incentives which will ultimately drive to cheaper and cheaper sources of energy (because BTC hashing, unlike most power consumed, does not need to be done in locations proximate to large populations (due to the rapid loss of electrical energy over distance). And then to take a moment to reason and understand, when promoting "lower cost energy alternatives", that the energy (ie "effort") required to hash Bitcoin is the very essence of the value Bitcoin has, in terms of scarcity and security. Let alone considering the benefits and utility that Bitcoin provides to so many in the world (the unbanked, the most vulnerable who are having their money devalued by the day yet have no access to leverage or hard assets, those in oppressive regimes who wish to escape with their small savings to another country, those who are being absolutely screwed by the big banks and currency remitters when wishing to transfer money home to their countries from a foreign location).

Further, the energy use to hash BTC, is a function of its demand. Its essentially caused by people "voting collectively", that they want the benefits that Bitcoin provides. If there is no demand, there would be no incentive to supply. Then you could consider 2nd layer networks on the BTC base layer, such as the Lightening Network.

But either way, from an investment perspective, BTC does not care what anyone personally thinks of its utility. Bitcoin is amorphous and it simply keeps doing what it was designed to do - and that can never be stopped. So its really simply on the future demand side of the equation we need to be taking a view on when deciding whether to allocate money towards it as investors.

I can understand why people who understand Bitcoin get somewhat frustrated at the lack of thought by no-coiners. But either way, this does not mean that Bitcoiners should be short or rude. Rather, I agree, they should indeed take the time to explain (ideally to people who truly do wish to understand).

Much of this ultimately comes down to a mental framework and core beliefs or "truths" being challenged, and how humans typically react when confronted with such change. There was a good speech on this here:

https://youtu.be/7EahaWJVG8o
 
Of course a no-coiner can have valid views. You have not raised any that are compelling, but you have raised many that are typically raised by smarter but conservative (typically older) people...

Maybe my arguments are not compelling but then again, I am not trying to convince anyone of anything. I asked the question of why anyone would want to own bitcoin. And so far I have not heard any good reasons for ME to own any. Others can make up their own minds.

If I interpret your username and join date correctly we are not that much different in age. And to infer I am conservative, whether you mean politically or financially, is a gross misjudgement.

I'll do you a favor. Since these bitcoins are in limited supply, I won't buy any so that there are more for you to buy! You can thank me when you are rich. I'm already rich enough. Let me know when you get there. I will send you an invitation to our private club as a gesture of goodwill. But we don't accept bitcoin.
 
Well, this may be a problem. The fund will be unable to track BTC properly...

First Bitcoin ETF Is Already in Danger of Breaching a Limit on Futures Contracts

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ady-in-danger-of-breaching-a-limit-on-futures

It a nice problem to have that the vehicle holding it cannot keep up with demand. :) Much like a restaurant having the "problem" of customers lining up for hours trying to get a seat. But either way, there are other ways to satisfy the BTC demand, including buying it directly, or eventually via a physically backed ETF.
 
Huh? By this logic that fleet of Tesla electric cars, which everyone knows use vast amounts of electricity, are furthering the world’s reliance on fossil fuels.

They are. Better to walk or bike everywhere. And rather than taking transoceanic flights, learn to swim! C'mon, do your part!
 
Maybe my arguments are not compelling but then again, I am not trying to convince anyone of anything. I asked the question of why anyone would want to own bitcoin. And so far I have not heard any good reasons for ME to own any. Others can make up their own minds.

If I interpret your username and join date correctly we are not that much different in age. And to infer I am conservative, whether you mean politically or financially, is a gross misjudgement.

I'll do you a favor. Since these bitcoins are in limited supply, I won't buy any so that there are more for you to buy! You can thank me when you are rich. I'm already rich enough. Let me know when you get there. I will send you an invitation to our private club as a gesture of goodwill. But we don't accept bitcoin.

By personalising this discussion, (as opposed to keeping it objective and based on the statements as opposed to assumed characteristics of the poster), you are engaging in what we refer to a an “ad hominem response". Whilst a commonly occurring phenomenon, many would consider such an approach as ultimately being an unconstructive approach which focuses on some characteristic of the person who made a statement, rather than the arguments that are making per se. Just saying, but of course it's OK with me. :)

But yes, we may well be of similar ages, and hopefully both young at heart! As for why you would want to have some exposure to Bitcoin, I would say to consider it as a powerful hedge or "insurance" which gives you wealth protection options and defences in a multitude of possible future scenarios. (And this of course is why we are all on this forum). Remember this post (and hopefully thank me), when such future scenarios might occur. At the very least I urge you to give some serious longer-term thought about what is going on in America and the world, both financially, socially, technologically, and geo-politically. I do think you will eventually "get there" with time, and perhaps even become an advocate for the utility Bitcoin provides.
 
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That sounds really, really bad. Bitcoin uses 43% as much electricity as the entire banking industry?

I have not addressed the electricity argument largely because it is limited. Bitcoin is approaching its limit is mineable coins so I think the electricity demands from bitcoin will begin to taper soon. Sure, every watt-hour counts but it won;t be a big contributor in 20 years. It's true that as the supply diminishes even greater computing power will be needed but miners will just switch to other crypto currencies.

Note that China's ban on crypto owning and mining happened when they faced an electricity crisis. Maybe they are related.
 
By personalising this discussion...

I don't want to make it personal. I am open to rational and well-supported arguements in favor of bitcoin, futures, option, stocks, bonds, and tulip bulbs. But I don't accept them on faith. I do my own thinking and research as others should.

By the way, you have some consistent spelling and writing styles that are revealing. Not that they undermine what you are saying, they just cause me to doubt some of the things you have said.
 
mpeirce, your logic breaks down because in the case of EVs, *if* they are replacing *some* of the fossil fuel used by ICE/hybrids, then EVs are reducing the world’s reliance on fossil fuels.

Getting off topic...maybe

If you drive 1000 miles in a car it takes a certain amount of energy which is determined by the weight of you+car+fuel/batteries, rolling resistance, air resistance, and other frictions/losses of the vehicle. These are roughly the same for EV vs ICE vehicles.

So the equation boils down to multiplying efficiencies.

If you power it by an ICE there are losses associated with oil drilling, pumping, transport, refining, and distribution. Then the engine itself is about 40% efficient.

If you power it with electricity there are losses associated with electric generation, largely still by fossil fuels (at about 45% efficiency) so include the above plus transmission (90% efficient). Electric motors are around 80% efficient at highway speeds and much less efficient in town.

So to first order, ICEs transfer fossil fuel energy into transportation work at 40% efficiency. EVs do the same thing at (0.45)(0.9)(0.8)=32.4% efficiency.

So your Prius heats up the planet 23.5% more than your Camry on the same trip. Unless of course you live right next to a nuclear power plant. Then you are good.

Simplistic analysis, yes. But EVs are of no use until we start generating power more cleanly with solar, wind, hydroelectric, and so forth.

Not at all an opponent of EVs. I just think we need to think deeper andmore critically and that is the whole point of my posts on this thread.
 
... and back on topic, :) for those who were asking about whether there are better alternatives to acquire BTC than via the recent ETF (ticker: BITO), see this recent news making headlines today (I presume its legit).

https://money.usnews.com/investing/...me-shoppers-to-buy-bitcoin-at-coinstar-kiosks

Has anyone seen these kiosks? Any feedback on using them? They are likely to have quite high margins I would suspect, but still its again a further step towards the journey of broader mainstream adoption. Possibly also a great way to transfer micropayments to people overseas without the costs associated with the traditional banking network. Watch out Western Union - Bitcoin is coming for you!
 
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Yep. Also numerous banks now issue Bitcoin-backed Visa cards. (Basically Bitcoin on the back-end, but transacted on the front end in fiat, seamlessly converted). These types of services are great for global nomads / citizens of the world (whether for lifestyle, business or tax) who live already entirely in Bitcoin as their base currency, but who have the reality of day today transactions in the various countries they are in.
 
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