Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[easysurfer]

Working fine now.

I'm holding steady in 8th place .

 

[Lawrencewendall]

Still no dividends from 8 September payout. Wonder what's up. First late/missed dividend since May.

EDIT: And I've dropped down into Boho territory.

 

[Boho]

And I've dropped down into Boho territory.

For a day. Rite Aid is rising just from a barely reported suggestion that there could be an approved merger in a day or two. It already brought me over $1,000,000.

 

[ERD50]

For a day. Rite Aid is rising just from a barely reported suggestion that there could be an approved merger in a day or two. It already brought me over $1,000,000.

And how's that workin' out for you today?

Looks like a case where the news is now settled, so the potential in the stock is gone now? Seen it happen many times before.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

And how's that workin' out for you today?

Looks like a case where the news is now settled, so the potential in the stock is gone now? Seen it happen many times before.

-ERD50

I had the impression that people were expecting either the merger to not be approved or the merger to include fewer stores. The price would drop if not approved and rise if approved (after all, Rite Aid wants this so it would be good news). A few days ago there was talk that the deal may not need to be adjusted to include fewer stores, causing the rise, which is understandable. Why it's dropping lower than it was a few weeks ago I don't know. Maybe people are thinking "I don't want THAT much fewer stores" but Rite Aid is probably happier than it was a few weeks ago despite the price drop.

Quarter 2 earnings are expected on September 28. I'll hold. I'll probably sell if they do good. Maybe I'll hold to see if Rite Aid benefits from the deal as they expect they will.

 

[ERD50]

...
Quarter 2 earnings are expected on September 28. I'll hold. I'll probably sell if they do good. Maybe I'll hold to see if Rite Aid benefits from the deal as they expect they will.

Thanks. I still fail to see how any of this can be expected to lead to reliably beating the market. Sounds like a guessing game to me.

Since I'm guessing too, I' prefer to diversify my guesses across a broad segment of the market with an index fund.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Thanks. I still fail to see how any of this can be expected to lead to reliably beating the market. Sounds like a guessing game to me.

Since I'm guessing too, I' prefer to diversify my guesses across a broad segment of the market with an index fund.

-ERD50

It's about buying low. One of the things I do (more in the past when I was trading in real life) is look for over reactions to bad news that occur when the price had already been especially low for no immediately discernible reason. I look for a few other things too.

 

[ERD50]

It's about buying low. One of the things I do (more in the past when I was trading in real life) is look for over reactions to bad news that occur when the price had already been especially low for no immediately discernible reason. I look for a few other things too.

Sure, buy-low sell-high is a good plan, no question about that!

But the question is, how can you expect to have more winners than losers when acting on the same info everyone has?

Do I think the market over-reacts sometimes? Yes. But if that was something that could be identified reliably, and acted upon, those hedge fund managers would be going gangbusters. But they aren't.

And so far, neither are you.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Sure, buy-low sell-high is a good plan, no question about that!

But the question is, how can you expect to have more winners than losers when acting on the same info everyone has?

Do I think the market over-reacts sometimes? Yes. But if that was something that could be identified reliably, and acted upon, those hedge fund managers would be going gangbusters. But they aren't.

And so far, neither are you.

-ERD50

I have my own combination of criteria that I need to try for myself. I'm not competing against only the best. I'm competing with the entirety of the traders and there's room for me to win.

Rite Aid is up 3.85% so far today for no good reason just like it was just way down for no good reason. It could still end up rising 5-10% more like I expected. If not, it's just one of those things. I have ARNA too and I read the transcript of their conference call, as I did with DRAD, and both of those look good so I'm not going to worry so much about Rite Aid.

 

[ERD50]

I have my own combination of criteria that I need to try for myself. I'm not competing against only the best. I'm competing with the entirety of the traders and there's room for me to win. ...

And the other traders are saying the same about you!

Not sure what you mean about "not competing against only the best"? Who are these 'best? The hedge fund managers I mentioned? But they aren't beating the market either.

The only real 'competition' I'm interested in is measured against the broad-based index funds. I don't care about beating other traders, but I'd like to beat the market - but I don't have confidence that I can do that, and don't see enough evidence that it can be done reliably.

Rite Aid is up 3.85% so far today for no good reason just like it was just way down for no good reason. It could still end up rising 5-10% more like I expected. If not, it's just one of those things. I have ARNA too and I read the transcript of their conference call, as I did with DRAD, and both of those look good so I'm not going to worry so much about Rite Aid.

Up/down for no good reason? How does one build a strategy around that?

So how are you doing compared to our benchmark nunnun now (up 5.3% on 01SEPT, probably up ~ 6% by now?)?

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

And the other traders are saying the same about you!

Not sure what you mean about "not competing against only the best"? Who are these 'best? The hedge fund managers I mentioned? But they aren't beating the market either.

I don't know who the best are but I'm glad they're not my only competition.

Up/down for no good reason? How does one build a strategy around that?

I believe in corrections and bet on them.

So how are you doing compared to our benchmark nunnun now (up 5.3% on 01SEPT, probably up ~ 6% by now?)?

-ERD50

At the moment I'm at $973,546.47 and nunnun has $1,066,517.22

 

[Totoro]

I have my own combination of criteria that I need to try for myself. I'm not competing against only the best. I'm competing with the entirety of the traders and there's room for me to win.

Not alot of room though. 50% of traders by definition will underperform. Trading costs eat up another 20% or so, possibly even 30%. And traders by definition should be more informed than the average non-trader investor.

Also, I'm pretty sure gains are top-heavy: e.g. the top 5% run off with 90% of gains (numbers made up).

So there may be room, but likely not a pleasant stay for claustrophobics.

 

[Boho]

Quarter 2 earnings are expected on September 28. I'll hold.

I didn't look into it but I have no reason to believe there will be good news on the 28. Unless that changes, I think I'll sell before the 28.

 

[ERD50]

I didn't look into it but I have no reason to believe there will be good news on the 28. Unless that changes, I think I'll sell before the 28.

Did you get out? RAD down ~ 10-11% today.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Did you get out? RAD down ~ 10-11% today.

-ERD50

No, unfortunately I read that some information about the partial merger will be released in the 2nd quarter report and I figured it would clarify the reasons for Rite Aid liking the deal but the news stories I read don't mention any of that. After it began to drop in the pre-market hours I placed a "Sell: Limit at $2.21" but it hasn't executed yet and maybe it won't. If I was able to sell at the open, I would have but the contest makes you wait. At this point I might as well just keep waiting.

 

[ERD50]

Can we get an EOM standing snapshot please?

- ERD50

 

[Boho]

Can we get an EOM standing snapshot please?

- ERD50

Snapshot:

 

[sengsational]

Walking to Freetown Christiania, I had to stop and take this picture.

 

[Boho]

I just placed an order to sell all 207700 shares of Rite Aid at market price. Then I can get back to trading.

 

[easysurfer]

I'm on cruise control, coasting in 8th place.

 

[Fermion]

On day one I tried to buy 200,000 shares of Endocyte in this contest but the rules would not allow it.

I would be #1 by miles.

 

[Lawrencewendall]

I still haven't gotten AGNC's dividends for September although they were posted to my real account. I sent Investopedia an email but doubt much will come of it.

 

[ERD50]

I'm on cruise control, coasting in 8th place.

What's the difference between your 'cruise control' and nunnun's? You are about 4% points behind nunnun.

On day one I tried to buy 200,000 shares of Endocyte in this contest but the rules would not allow it.

I would be #1 by miles.

Like I said, for those doing a few individual stock picks, they could easily end up at the top, or the bottom (or both over the course of the contest!), and neither position says much about their stock picking. It says a lot about the power/safety of diversification.

I'm just not seeing anything from the stock pickers that shows they have a reliable, repeatable 'system' that can reasonably be expected to regularly beat the market. It might beat it sometimes, but that's true of just about any 'system'.

-ERD50

 

[easysurfer]

What's the difference between your 'cruise control' and nunnun's? You are about 4% points behind nunnun.
....

-ERD50

nunnun is in super cruise control as in all US stock index ETFs . 1/2 Total stock, 1/2 SP 500.

I'm in index ETFs some US, some International some Bonds with a dab of cash.

nunnun is ahead of me until the market tanks .

 

[Boho]

I'm just not seeing anything from the stock pickers that shows they have a reliable, repeatable 'system' that can reasonably be expected to regularly beat the market. It might beat it sometimes, but that's true of just about any 'system'.

-ERD50

There's sort of a maturity date to my picks and I feel like I shouldn't be judged until then (I'm not talking about the end of the contest). Rite Aid matured and I lost on that one. DRAD matured and I sort of lost on that one but I'm holding until next quarter. I have $349,310.00 in ARNA, a biotech where there should be periodic advances but I guess the "maturity" date would be the approval or failure of one of the promising drugs they're working on. Then I have PGHY - PowerShares Global Short Term High Yield Bond Portfolio, total value $41,744.40 and I'm down $405.85. I'm just leaving that without thinking much about it. So yeah, no impressive results but I don't feel like it matters yet.