easysurfer
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- Jun 11, 2008
- Messages
- 13,164
Working fine now.
I'm holding steady in 8th place .
I'm holding steady in 8th place .
And I've dropped down into Boho territory.
For a day. Rite Aid is rising just from a barely reported suggestion that there could be an approved merger in a day or two. It already brought me over $1,000,000.
And how's that workin' out for you today?
Looks like a case where the news is now settled, so the potential in the stock is gone now? Seen it happen many times before.
-ERD50
...
Quarter 2 earnings are expected on September 28. I'll hold. I'll probably sell if they do good. Maybe I'll hold to see if Rite Aid benefits from the deal as they expect they will.
Thanks. I still fail to see how any of this can be expected to lead to reliably beating the market. Sounds like a guessing game to me.
Since I'm guessing too, I' prefer to diversify my guesses across a broad segment of the market with an index fund.
-ERD50
It's about buying low. One of the things I do (more in the past when I was trading in real life) is look for over reactions to bad news that occur when the price had already been especially low for no immediately discernible reason. I look for a few other things too.
Sure, buy-low sell-high is a good plan, no question about that!
But the question is, how can you expect to have more winners than losers when acting on the same info everyone has?
Do I think the market over-reacts sometimes? Yes. But if that was something that could be identified reliably, and acted upon, those hedge fund managers would be going gangbusters. But they aren't.
And so far, neither are you.
-ERD50
I have my own combination of criteria that I need to try for myself. I'm not competing against only the best. I'm competing with the entirety of the traders and there's room for me to win. ...
Rite Aid is up 3.85% so far today for no good reason just like it was just way down for no good reason. It could still end up rising 5-10% more like I expected. If not, it's just one of those things. I have ARNA too and I read the transcript of their conference call, as I did with DRAD, and both of those look good so I'm not going to worry so much about Rite Aid.
And the other traders are saying the same about you!
Not sure what you mean about "not competing against only the best"? Who are these 'best? The hedge fund managers I mentioned? But they aren't beating the market either.
Up/down for no good reason? How does one build a strategy around that?
So how are you doing compared to our benchmark nunnun now (up 5.3% on 01SEPT, probably up ~ 6% by now?)?
-ERD50
I have my own combination of criteria that I need to try for myself. I'm not competing against only the best. I'm competing with the entirety of the traders and there's room for me to win.
Quarter 2 earnings are expected on September 28. I'll hold.
I didn't look into it but I have no reason to believe there will be good news on the 28. Unless that changes, I think I'll sell before the 28.
Did you get out? RAD down ~ 10-11% today.
-ERD50
Can we get an EOM standing snapshot please?
- ERD50
I'm on cruise control, coasting in 8th place.
On day one I tried to buy 200,000 shares of Endocyte in this contest but the rules would not allow it.
I would be #1 by miles.
What's the difference between your 'cruise control' and nunnun's? You are about 4% points behind nunnun.
....
-ERD50
I'm just not seeing anything from the stock pickers that shows they have a reliable, repeatable 'system' that can reasonably be expected to regularly beat the market. It might beat it sometimes, but that's true of just about any 'system'.
-ERD50