Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Tesla for the long run?
Old 08-26-2020, 01:50 PM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: St. Petersburg
Posts: 123
Tesla for the long run?

Is Tesla a good buy and hold for five years? Or is it overhyped? Opinions please and I thank you.
LXEX55 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 08-26-2020, 01:57 PM   #2
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 419
If you believe they will succeed with SpaceX, Neurolink, Solar Roofs, Battery Supplier, Boring, and Autonomous vehicles, they are extremely undervalued. If you believe they will only produce cars, they are extremely overvalued.
Toocold is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2020, 02:08 PM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 4,157
If you buy Tesla at this level you better pray that Elon doesn't even catch a sniffle. Anything happens to Elon, Tesla drops from $2,000 to $200.

But it isn't like we are in a pandemic or anything.
Fermion is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2020, 02:22 PM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Chuckanut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 11,635
Quote:
Originally Posted by Toocold View Post
If you believe they will succeed with SpaceX, Neurolink, Solar Roofs, Battery Supplier, Boring, and Autonomous vehicles, they are extremely undervalued. If you believe they will only produce cars, they are extremely overvalued.
SpaceX is a separate company, IIRC. It is, IMHO, necessary to meet Mr. Musk's #1 priority - Make humanity a multi-planet species. He owns a majority of the stock and a big majority of the voting stock. SpaceX could continue to be a great success even if Tesla goes the way GM and Chrysler did in 2009 - bankruptcy.

I do not think they are linked, other than sharing some technological developments, and being an example of Mr. Musk's company beating out the older, established companies in the business. Can you say "Chicago based Boeing", ArianeSpace, Roscosmos, etc?

I regard Tesla as a speculation mostly because electric vehicles fill a very nice, growing niche, but it's still a niche.
__________________
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.

I hope you are safe and well; neither imprisoned by anxiety nor liberated by foolhardiness.
Chuckanut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2020, 02:52 PM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
MRG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 9,491
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckanut View Post
SpaceX is a separate company, IIRC. It is, IMHO, necessary to meet Mr. Musk's #1 priority - Make humanity a multi-planet species. He owns a majority of the stock and a big majority of the voting stock. SpaceX could continue to be a great success even if Tesla goes the way GM and Chrysler did in 2009 - bankruptcy.

I do not think they are linked, other than sharing some technological developments, and being an example of Mr. Musk's company beating out the older, established companies in the business. Can you say "Chicago based Boeing", ArianeSpace, Roscosmos, etc?

I regard Tesla as a speculation mostly because electric vehicles fill a very nice, growing niche, but it's still a niche.
+1 SpaceX is not Tesla. I think the satellite business is also not Tesla.

I own a small amount of TSLA and a Model Y, great vehicle and technology. I'm pleased with the product and the support. I retired from technology and I'm not easy to impress.

I'll say Tesla is more than amazing automobiles and as much of an energy play as automobiles. I don't think EVs are fads, I think when Tesla semis replaced diesel technology folks will wake up. Battery day, September 22, promises to be interesting.

Do I think the stock is overvalued at $2100? Probably unless the S&P addition and battery day both move it more. It will go down next week.
MRG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2020, 05:20 PM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 2,027
Quote:
Originally Posted by MRG View Post
Do I think the stock is overvalued at $2100?
Yes, I think the stock is overvalued at $2100. That doesn't mean it can't or won't go higher.
njhowie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2020, 05:26 PM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
OldShooter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 5,977
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g...fooltheory.asp

In the vast majority of these cases, the greater fools eventually stop showing up. So be sure to sell to the last one who arrives.
OldShooter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2020, 05:33 PM   #8
Moderator
braumeister's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Flyover country
Posts: 17,046
Quote:
Originally Posted by njhowie View Post
Yes, I think the stock is overvalued at $2100. That doesn't mean it can't or won't go higher.
+1
The relevant quotation is
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"

Often attributed to John Maynard Keynes, although it's not clear who actually originated this line. Nevertheless, it's certainly true.
__________________
I thought growing old would take longer.
braumeister is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2020, 05:38 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 15,549
Heck, I thought it was overvalued at $600...


There is no way that the company is worth the current price even with the recent small profits and any sensible growth rate..


It is not like they are making a product with a outsized margin like Apple and have a fan base as big as Apple and that fan base wants to trade in every 2 or 3 years..


As others have mentioned, it can stay at this elevated level for a LONG time.. and heck, might still go up as there are a lot of people who have FOMO...
Texas Proud is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2020, 05:46 PM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
OldShooter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 5,977
Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
... There is no way that the company is worth the current price ...
The market price is where a willing seller meets a willing greater fool buyer. What else could "worth" mean?
OldShooter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2020, 05:47 PM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 28,133
Tesla is a company with many claims to be first. However, CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology), a Chinese company, was the first to coin and announce the "million-mile battery" in early June 2020, as far as I know. It was followed shortly with talk of Musk meeting with CATL CEO to discuss a deal, where CATL will supply battery for Tesla China production. CATL CEO said Musk kept mentioning cost as the main factor for Tesla.

Abracadabra! Suddenly, there's talk on the Web about "Tesla's million-mile battery". Interesting!

I am not long nor short Tesla, but I will watch this upcoming Tesla Battery Day to see if it is something beyond what CATL is selling. I am a lot more interested in battery technology than in EVs. CATL has been building a large factory in Germany to sell to German auto makers.

CATL is the #1 lithium cell maker in the world, followed by LG Chem. Panasonic who is making cells for Tesla inside the Gigafactory is #3.
__________________
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2020, 07:15 PM   #12
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Danville
Posts: 90
To LXEX55: I am long Tesla stock and am all in with my individual stock portfolio since the beginning of this year. As of today, I have almost 5x my investment. I cannot advocate for you to believe in this company. Only you can do that. There are many YouTubers currently available who have done a tremendous job of researching into the company and share tons of information. You can find out what Tesla is all about in various ways. Check out the many interviews with Cathie Wood, CIO of ARK invest and Ron Baron, the founder of Baron Capital. Tesla is a HUGE growth company.
Investing hard-earned money is such a personal thing. Perhaps, more information and insight into the company will help you to answer your own question.
Blue531 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2020, 07:17 PM   #13
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 3,375
THe stock is not on my radar.
gerntz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-27-2020, 11:00 AM   #14
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 15,549
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldShooter View Post
The market price is where a willing seller meets a willing greater fool buyer. What else could "worth" mean?



One way of determining worth is what a willing seller will pay to a willing buyer...


But we know that at times to be false... the tulip bulb mania is the perfect example... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania


Another way to determine worth of a stock is its net present value of future cash flows... this is what I am using for my guess that it is not worth the price...


BTW, JCP and a few other companies have surged recently for some reason even though their value (future cash flow) is almost 100% zero as they are in BK and the common are stated to be worthless... just because someone is buying those shares I would not say they are worth the price..
Texas Proud is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-27-2020, 11:07 AM   #15
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 419
You are right. I guess they better win in the solar roof market too!
Toocold is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-27-2020, 11:17 AM   #16
Recycles dryer sheets
KarlH's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Northern Illinois
Posts: 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by LXEX55 View Post
Is Tesla a good buy and hold for five years? Or is it overhyped? Opinions please and I thank you.
I am not sure if it is a good buy or not. I am hoping for a little bump after the formal 5:1 split, and if my initial investment is doubled I will sell half and let the rest ride. I bought late, and have been thrilled by the last couple weeks, but could lose my shirt soon too.
KarlH is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-27-2020, 12:01 PM   #17
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
OldShooter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 5,977
Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
One way of determining worth is what a willing seller will pay to a willing buyer...


But we know that at times to be false... the tulip bulb mania is the perfect example... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania
I don't know that the existence of the tulip mania proves anything of the sort. From what I have read, there were many willing buyers and willing sellers establishing "worth."

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
Another way to determine worth of a stock is its net present value of future cash flows... this is what I am using for my guess that it is not worth the price...
That's the way I approach it too, but I don't say that such a number establishes some kind of canonical "worth." After all, no one even knows what the future cash flows will be. All I can say is that the stock's worth to me is far less than the present price. I don't know or care what the stock's worth might be to someone else.

Here is investing patriarch Ben Graham (in "The Intelligent Investor") on the problem: " ... we hope to implant in the reader a tendency to measure or quantify. For 99 issues out of 100 we could say that at some price they are cheap enough to buy and at some other price they would be so dear that they should be sold. The habit of relating what is paid to what is being offered is an invaluable trait in investment. In an article in a women’s magazine many years ago we advised the readers to buy their stocks as they bought their groceries, not as they bought their perfume. The really dreadful losses of the past few years (and on many similar occasions before) were realized in those common-stock issues where the buyer forgot to ask “How much?"

I think he would characterize the current price as "dear." (I have posted this quotation before; apologies to those who might be bored.)
OldShooter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-27-2020, 12:11 PM   #18
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4,227
I sold half of my Tesla shares at $1905, which was more than 10x the $188 I bought 83% of the shares at. Aside from not fitting my portfolio, I was worried it would go down but optimistic that it will go up.

It's a fun ride, I like the products, but I'm not willing to bet a whole lot on either direction. So basically I'm no help with this problem. Other than make sure it's a small part of your portfolio.
Animorph is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-27-2020, 12:31 PM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 15,549
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldShooter View Post
I don't know that the existence of the tulip mania proves anything of the sort. From what I have read, there were many willing buyers and willing sellers establishing "worth."

That's the way I approach it too, but I don't say that such a number establishes some kind of canonical "worth." After all, no one even knows what the future cash flows will be. All I can say is that the stock's worth to me is far less than the present price. I don't know or care what the stock's worth might be to someone else.

Here is investing patriarch Ben Graham (in "The Intelligent Investor") on the problem: " ... we hope to implant in the reader a tendency to measure or quantify. For 99 issues out of 100 we could say that at some price they are cheap enough to buy and at some other price they would be so dear that they should be sold. The habit of relating what is paid to what is being offered is an invaluable trait in investment. In an article in a women’s magazine many years ago we advised the readers to buy their stocks as they bought their groceries, not as they bought their perfume. The really dreadful losses of the past few years (and on many similar occasions before) were realized in those common-stock issues where the buyer forgot to ask “How much?"

I think he would characterize the current price as "dear." (I have posted this quotation before; apologies to those who might be bored.)

So, you agree with me then..
Texas Proud is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-27-2020, 12:42 PM   #20
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
OldShooter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 5,977
Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
So, you agree with me then..
Well yes; that was my general point. But I make a subtle distinction in that I can know what a stock is "worth" to me. A recent consummated transaction will tell me what a stock is "worth" to that buyer, but I don't think there is some kind canonical "worth" on stone tablets somewhere that we can compare to these subjective determinations.

Absent the stone tablet I don't think anyone can say "There is no way that the company is worth the current price ... " Somebody always thinks it is or there would be no transaction.

It would be easier if we had the stone tablets of course.
OldShooter is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 5 (4 members and 1 guests)
Christine, ERD50, oneill225, Zathras
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
On a long run Equities pay off eta2020 FIRE and Money 4 02-17-2015 10:47 AM
Diversification helps in Long Run mickeyd FIRE and Money 2 02-17-2015 10:11 AM
In the long run young investors will be rich. clifp FIRE and Money 35 06-28-2011 08:09 PM
Long run, mathematically...withdrawals. Spartacus FIRE and Money 16 10-26-2009 07:30 PM
"Stocks for the long run"? Bikerdude FIRE and Money 1 05-27-2009 04:21 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:53 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.