Tesla is off the rails

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You are a seasoned, confident, successful investor, and you strongly endorse TSLA.

So tell me - what is your price target for TSLA? What is it worth in your opinion?

Well, that's a much different question than whether TSLA is a "no-brainer BUY" at current prices.

I expect Telsa to be selling a few million cars a year by 2025 and still growing rapidly. I also expect their energy storage business to be a major contributor to profits by then. I don't really set "price targets" in the manner that Wall Street analysts do as I think that's silly but suffice to say I don't think $5000 or more is an unreasonable outcome.
 
Tesla has many innovations and accolades, but a company's worth eventually is determined by the money that it makes.

If Tesla succeeds in driving all other car makers out of business, and becomes the sole car maker in the world, what would it be worth? Does the $5000/share price put its valuation at more than the sum of all car makers now? I am too lazy to find that out, but someone may know off the top of his head.

And if the driverless car becomes a reality, will the world need even fewer cars?

About other businesses of solar generation and energy storage, I just read in the news about a LS Power Group's Gateway battery going online in San Diego County. It is still small at 62.5 megawatt-hours, compared to Tesla's battery in Australia which is 193.5 megawatthours. LS Power Group is a private enterprise, and plans to enlarge this battery to 1000 megawatthours. Several other companies including NextEra also work on gigawatthour projects.

For massive-scale energy storage projects, it is all about who can build the least expensive battery with the best longevity. Tesla is however not a battery maker.
 
For massive-scale energy storage projects, it is all about who can build the least expensive battery with the best longevity. Tesla is however not a battery maker.

Tesla has recently filed for battery patents and is currently enlarging and reconfiguring their Kato Rd. facility in Alameda County, CA to accomodate a pilot battery production line. Last year they purchased a company that makes automated production equipment. If they manufacture batteries with the same mindset, determination and focus they demonstrated in the auto business, I have little doubt they will succeed in a stunning manner. I've never seen a company that is able to perform at such a high level.
 
I don't follow Tesla closely, and did not run across the above news in the Web.

It takes a lot of money to invest in a battery plant, and to displace his Tesla battery suppliers, i.e. Panasonic and CATL. It is too early to know if this will not turn out to be a diversion, like the Hyperloop or the tunnel.

I just recalled that Musk even threatened to open a candy shop to compete with Buffett's See's Candies. :)
 
And speaking of lithium battery, in researching technical data to understand more about the 18650 cells that I am testing to build another DIY home solar battery, I ran across an old Panasonic announcement about its NCR18650A cell, whose capacity of 3.1 Ah was unprecedented then back in 2009. It's been 10 years, and the capacity of the lithium cell has not improved that much since.

But a nice thing I observe is that the price has come down quite a bit. Back then, some posters in a forum were jumping up/down with joy that they could buy a few cells for $12 to 14 each at retail level. Retail price of the newer NCR18650B cell (3.4 Ah) is $4/each now, in qty. of 100.

There's a lot of money to be made in this battery business, hence the number of players.
 
I don't follow Tesla closely, and did not run across the above news in the Web.

The permits are granted and the work is in progress. Tesla is always striving to be more vertically integrated so they need to depend upon suppliers less and less as they expand production. Taking charge of their own battery production will be a key differentiator between Tesla and their competitors.

It takes a lot of money to invest in a battery plant, and to displace his Tesla battery suppliers, i.e. Panasonic and CATL. It is too early to know if this will not turn out to be a diversion, like the Hyperloop or the tunnel.

Batteries are a fundamental part of all three segments of of Tesla's core businesses. So it's not a diversion, it's a fundamental part of their business. As far as money, Tesla has $8 billion in cash and, if they could put more to good use they could raise it simply by snapping their fingers. There is no shortage of cash, it's a matter of how much growth management can manage. They are already building two enormous factories, one in Shanghai that is half complete and already pumping out cars as you question their abilities, and one in Germany that is about 20% complete and will be their largest yet when it starts cranking out cars for the European markets probably in Q1 2021. They are also in the early development phase of a new US Gigafactory (probably in Austin, TX or Tulsa, OK) that should be completed some time late next year.

The Boring Company is a completely seperate business with no real connection to Tesla so it's not clear why you are trying to throw shade and instill doubt on Tesla by introducing that. Tesla has a long history of doing what they said they were going to do even in the midst of massive doubt and ridicule about their "impossible" and "unrealistic" goals that were constantly lobbed at them by the media, ICE competitors, oil executives and TSLA short-sellers who were rooting for failure of the most innovative American auto maker to come along since the early days of the auto industry. I get a kick out of all the naysayers in the peanut gallery saying they can't do something while Tesla just puts their noses to the grindstone and makes those very things a reality. Then the naysayers move onto something else. Tesla proves them wrong every time. What are the accomplishments of the naysayers? Nothing unless you consider throwing shade on the people making amazing things happen an accomplishment! :LOL:

I just recalled that Musk even threatened to open a candy shop to compete with Buffett's See's Candies. :)

Huh? What is your point here?
 
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Just because someone has some good accomplishments, it does not mean that I have to believe everything that he promises. I don't let go of my money without asking questions.

Oh well, I am done here.
 
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Wow, read a lot of comments here. I also procrastinated on buying Tesla stock because it was overvalued from $350 until $580. I think it will be a big company in 10 years, the same feeling I had when apple released the iPhone and I talked to my parents generation about the growth potential. I was told by more than a few that nobody needs a smart phone. Every once and a while you see a product that is the future - the only uncertainty is will that company be the one to profit.

I am looking around at my tech - two 9 year old Mac computers that are more than adequate, my iphone is 4 years old and starting to lag. We have gone through a number of windows/android devices during that time that needed to be replaced but the Apple products just keep working fine. I bring this up because the comparison was made to Tesla=Apple and that other mfg make same quality/performance for cheaper. I haven’t found this to be the case for Apple. I suppose I will find out for Tesla.

I have a cybertruck on order, mostly because (my opinion) automatic transmissions generally suck and we want to switch to a truck. The truck will have about the same fuel cost as my civic and being a frugal boglehead I don’t like wasting resources (money or energy).

I’ve seen lots of doubts on Tesla - build quality. It seems they have been making cars for 12 years and I haven’t heard about any major failures or fixes needed in this time. I have seen lots of cosmetic fix requests in Tesla forums - I requested similar on my last Honda but they won’t fix that kind of thing (per dealer). It doesn’t seem that building a car chassis is that complex - they have been doing it for 100 years. Are there any specific concerns that we should be looking for that would take more than 10 years to be identified?

I don’t know where the stock is headed but I honestly believe it will be worth more in 5 years than today. Uncertainty is how will growth (from today’s high value) be relative to the S&P?
 
Just because someone has some good accomplishments, it does not mean that I have to believe everything that he promises. I don't let go of my money without asking questions.

As a long-time investor, I agree completely. It is my job to question everything I hear about the company, whether it comes from the CEO of the company, stock analysts, other investors, competitors or Tesla short-sellers.

At the end of the day I make my decision after deciding which info I find credible and which info seems unfairly biased. This is my job as an investor and if I am not good at it, I lose. Many good people were fooled by the Tesla "hit pieces" as the naysayers tend to have very loud and forceful voices. I'm glad I wasn't fooled by them. I will say I had a huge advantage over most potential investors in that I had two Tesla at my disposal to drive and inspect and have spent more than a few hours inspecting hundreds of new Tesla freshly delivered to delivery centers. What I found was the issues with paint and panel gaps that the press and Internet car "experts" constantly hammered at were grossly exaggerated.

While not every body panel and door aligned exactly perfectly with the adjacent panel, it was only a very small number that I think stood out. I started looking at Ford's, GMC's, VW's, Volvo's, Subaru's etc. found that ALL brands had some variation noticeable in panel gaps and alignment and while Tesla did have more variation, even the most pronounced variations were minor cosmetic issues that most people would probably not even notice unless someone asked them to look for such things. However, the quality of the things that matter to me, the design and engineering, the electronics (wiring and connectors), the interior surfaces that I touch, the software that runs the car, the tires, wheels, and drivetrain, are all top-notch, something I cannot say for most other car brands.

So, as an investor, I'm glad I was able to filter out the noise from info that was pertinent to my investment thesis. To this day there is still a small army of anti-Tesla voices that are pervasive and forceful, loudly drowning out more reasonable voices. I'm not sure why there is so much hate and negativity on an innovative American company bringing ground-breaking products to auto consumers that improve the air quality and ambiance within our cities at prices consumers find compelling while creating good jobs in engineering, design, logistics, manufacturing, management etc. all while decreasing the trade deficit. It's really baffling how short-sighted these Tesla haters are. Even people who think they are rational and not easily fooled have been swayed by their false premises and arguments.

Interestingly, as a car brand, Tesla was found to be more "American" than any other automaker in terms of the origin of the parts and labor that go into a car:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgor...for-2020/?ss=logistics-transport#224e10b79785
 
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... What I found was the issues with paint and panel gaps that the press and Internet car "experts" constantly hammered at were grossly exaggerated. ... So, as an investor, I'm glad I was able to filter out the noise from info that was pertinent to my investment thesis. To this day there is still a small army of anti-Tesla voices that are pervasive and forceful, loudly drowning out more reasonable voices. ...
Sounds like confirmation bias to me. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias) I am amused that you characterize anyone mentioning negatives about Tesla to be a "hater" and "anti-Tesla."
 
Sounds like confirmation bias to me. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias) I am amused that you characterize anyone mentioning negatives about Tesla to be a "hater" and "anti-Tesla."


Sadly typical of Tesla discussions. I follow the Tesla discussions on Seeking Alpha also. Amazing how every positive event is heralded by Tesla fans as something “disruptive” or never been done before. And every negative event is down played. My gamble at a “disruptive growth “ company that had all the things I wanted except for profitability was Celera. I was cognizant of the risk so limited my exposure to what I could lose comfortably. Was fun while it lasted. Hope most Tesla investors similarly limit their exposure as the risk appears to be high.
 
... It is my job to question everything I hear about the company, whether it comes from the CEO of the company, stock analysts, other investors, competitors or Tesla short-sellers...

At the end of the day I make my decision after deciding which info I find credible and which info seems unfairly biased. This is my job as an investor and if I am not good at it, I lose.

Yes. A guy is responsible for his own investment. And he is free to invest his money as he likes.

Many good people were fooled by the Tesla "hit pieces" as the naysayers tend to have very loud and forceful voices. I'm glad I wasn't fooled by them. I will say I had a huge advantage over most potential investors in that I had two Tesla at my disposal to drive and inspect and have spent more than a few hours inspecting hundreds of new Tesla freshly delivered to delivery centers...

I stopped being a "car guy" in my late 30s, and treat cars as a commodity which takes me from point A to point B. I am not interested in any car, and although have not set foot inside a Tesla, have read many articles on the Web that I come across to know about its novel features, because of my technical inclination more than as an interested consumer.

What I find is that while Tesla cars boast many innovative ideas, many very useful, its fans also make many attributions that are wrong or at least exaggerated. And if someone points that out, they don't like it.

I have talked about the self-driving technology in the past, and will not bother to repeat that here.

Here's the most recent example. There's much talk about the "million-mile battery" in the media recently. Quite a few articles have in the title the phrase "Tesla million-mile battery". What is that all about?

A quick search shows me that China's CATL announced this long-life battery in early June. And Tesla is now known to be working with CATL for the Chinese car production. Tesla fans are so quick to claim credit for the company for everything that they hear. Is that a misinformation campaign to pump stock? Hah!

Interestingly, as a car brand, Tesla was found to be more "American" than any other automaker in terms of the origin of the parts and labor that go into a car:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgor...for-2020/?ss=logistics-transport#224e10b79785

That's good. For the future, while building cars for the Chinese and European markets, Tesla will have to use local labor and parts. That's just the way these countries demand it.

People like to see American companies doing well. But it does not mean that Tesla is the only company whose well-being will be good for the US. People forget that much of Tesla competition is domestic such as Ford and Chevy in the car business, and Waymo and Cruise in the driverless technology.

There are many American companies that one can invest in. Tesla is not the only one.


PS. About the long-life battery, it has been well-known that LiFePO4 chemistry, also called LFP for lithium ferro phosphate, has a much longer life than the type of lithium-ion battery that is commonly used in consumer products and in Tesla cars. However, LFP battery does not have the same energy density, and the EV would be heavier and has a shorter range.

Now, Chinese companies have been very big in LFP chemistry, while other well-known battery companies like Panasonic, LG Chem, Sony, etc..., are not. I don't know why that is, but LFP battery is very popular in the energy storage business, where one does not care or worry about the battery weight.

LFP battery is also very safe. When abused, an LFP battery does not explode in flames like the common lithium-ion battery. I have 22-kWh worth in my DIY solar storage system.

Just finished pulling out 8 of the 64 modules that I hand-built to measure their capacity after 2 years of use. Very little degradation, despite the heavy daily charge/discharge. The cells were made by Tenergy. The manufacturing date is 2013, but I only purchased them in 2017 as NOS, and put into use in 2018.

And so, I am very interested to learn more about CATL battery, to see if it is of the LFP chemistry. There's this talk about "nano phosphate", which I have not researched.
 
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Back on Tesla as an investment, Tesla is a "real" company, compared to Nikola or Fisker which is about to go public.

But even if something is good, one still has to ask if the price is too high. And I think that's where most analysts and investors are having a problem. They are not anti-Tesla.
 
Are you equally amused that in post #77 in this thread you referred to Tesla believers as Fan-boys?
Certainly there are fan-boys among them, as there are in any of these hot stocks. If you read your citation again I think you can see that I did not suggest that all Tesla investors are fan-boys. I also don't think that all Tesla investors are "believers" in the sense that belief is invoked when logic fails.
 
Thanks for the interesting discussion. :flowers:

 
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