Thoughts on TESLA

[oneill225]

Nah, I invest in separate companies as well. Just that the index's paint a broad picture of the health of the market just so people don't think I've cherry picked. Guess we can revisit this in another 18 months and see how Tesla performs.

Well, you know what they say, "past performance is no guarantee of future performance."

I don't see the value in comparing individual stocks to the market as a whole unless your strategy is to spread the risk (which is a fine strategy) by avoiding individual stocks. I am sure that I could take any of your top individual stocks and compare them unfavorably to the S&P over some period of time in the past. That time is now for Tesla compared the past year or so, but had you gone back a full two years, Tesla would have outperformed the S&P. In either case, it helps very little in projecting future returns.

As I am sure you know, the S&P and other index funds provide decent returns, but they will never be able to match a stock like Apple, Microsoft, or Amazon once they take-off. I get that you do not believe Tesla is akin to those companies, but showing that the stock has been flat (compared to an index) says nothing about Tesla's future potential. Using that standard, you would have been advising people to avoid Amazon stock back in 2014.

 

[Totoro]

Not sure that qualifies as a narrow focus for Jobs.
-ERD50

Jobs had one career: A product designer, focused on user interaction and simplicity.
https://www.artsy.net/article/artsy-editorial-steve-jobs-learned-bauhaus

Pixar was an investment, he wasn't running anything. It's one of the reasons he became so successful later on: when the tech becomes mature and everyday items, design and simplicity trumps functionality.

Elon Musk is more of a technology pioneer. Different skillset and much more risky in my view. Going from software for the internet to space rockets is not a small change.

 

[Fedup]

It makes sense to buy Tesla after the big drop but not now, more risky now.

 

[nash031]

Obviously some of you won't buy an EV. No problem with that. Other people will drive them and collect the 10,450 in rebates and credits, and enjoy the silent ride with no smelly fumes or gas stations in their lives.

You collect those rebates and credits only after spending more than $100K on an SUV (in your case); $90K on a sedan; or upwards of $50K on a (frankly) ugly crossover looking thing. I gave serious consideration to a Model S about 18 months ago, but ultimately couldn't get past the price tag, especially when coupled with my concerns about the company's long term viability. Neither of those concerns has been alleviated in any way, and one of them (long term viability) has actually gotten worse in my estimation.

The Model S is an amazing car - I'd be lucky to own one (if I thought that was a good use of my money)! That's not the debate here. In the end, it's still a depreciating asset that costs nearly six figures, even as it "improves in your driveway". Again, I point out the irony in your chosen handle...

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

You collect those rebates and credits only after spending more than $100K on an SUV (in your case); $90K on a sedan; or upwards of $50K on a (frankly) ugly crossover looking thing. I gave serious consideration to a Model S about 18 months ago, but ultimately couldn't get past the price tag, especially when coupled with my concerns about the company's long term viability. Neither of those concerns has been alleviated in any way, and one of them (long term viability) has actually gotten worse in my estimation.

The Model S is an amazing car - I'd be lucky to own one (if I thought that was a good use of my money)! That's not the debate here. In the end, it's still a depreciating asset that costs nearly six figures, even as it "improves in your driveway". Again, I point out the irony in your chosen handle...

74,000 for the Model S, 79,000 for the Model X

And I spend money on quality. And I am a tightwad

 

[oneill225]

You collect those rebates and credits only after spending more than $100K on an SUV (in your case); $90K on a sedan; or upwards of $50K on a (frankly) ugly crossover looking thing. I gave serious consideration to a Model S about 18 months ago, but ultimately couldn't get past the price tag, especially when coupled with my concerns about the company's long term viability. Neither of those concerns has been alleviated in any way, and one of them (long term viability) has actually gotten worse in my estimation.
The Model S is an amazing car - I'd be lucky to own one (if I thought that was a good use of my money)! That's not the debate here. In the end, it's still a depreciating asset that costs nearly six figures, even as it "improves in your driveway". Again, I point out the irony in your chosen handle...

Ferrari, BMW, Maserati, Jaguar, Volvo, Etal. When will they realize that they have no future?

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Volvo has a future...it no longer will make ICE cars starting in 3 months..They've already planned and adjusted for the future

 

[ERD50]

Volvo has a future...it no longer will make ICE cars starting in 3 months..They've already planned and adjusted for the future

You just lost a ton of credibility.

I gotta run, but I suggest you research that, and come back with an accurate assessment of what Volvo's plans are. If you get it right, I'll return 90% of your credibility score.

-ERD50

 

[braumeister]

Volvo has a future...it no longer will make ICE cars starting in 3 months..They've already planned and adjusted for the future

That's a common misconception based on some erroneous reporting on a Volvo announcement some time ago.

They are committed to including an electric option in all NEW models introduced starting next year. There are also a number of electric options in some existing models, and that may increase. But it's a long, gradual process.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

That's a common misconception based on some erroneous reporting on a Volvo announcement some time ago.

They are committed to including an electric option in all NEW models introduced starting next year. There are also a number of electric options in some existing models, and that may increase. But it's a long, gradual process.

The company thinks it will hit 50% electric sales by 2025...thats not too long of a process

 

[OldShooter]

... As I am sure you know, the S&P and other index funds provide decent returns, but they will never be able to match a stock like Apple, Microsoft, or Amazon once they take-off. ...

Yes. There are many stocks like that. Pity there is no way to comply with Will Rogers' advice:

"Don’t gamble"; take all your savings and buy some good stock, and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.

Identifying winners by looking in the rear view mirror is the easiest thing in the world. Trying to identify them through the windshield is statistically doomed to failure. Getting lucky sometimes happens, though, and is often mistaken for genius, especially by the lucky ones.

 

[Running_Man]

The company thinks it will hit 50% electric sales by 2025...thats not too long of a process

50% electric in 5 years is far different than no more fossil fuel cars in 3 months

 

[oneill225]

Yes. Identifying winners by looking in the rear view mirror is the easiest thing in the world. Trying to identify them through the windshield is statistically doomed to failure. Getting lucky sometimes happens, though, and is often mistaken for genius, especially by the lucky ones.

A little pessimistic, but hard to argue with.

 

[oneill225]

50% electric in 5 years is far different than no more fossil fuel cars in 3 months

Electric or not, Nash031 won't be buying one. Therefore, according to him/her, they cannot survive.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

50% electric in 5 years is far different than no more fossil fuel cars in 3 months

That 50% doesn't include hybrids

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

and 2025 is 7 years from now

 

[samclem]

and 2025 is 7 years from now

Which is even farther from "3 months from now.". And 50% remains a long way from 100%.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

I never said all car sales will be 100% EV's, not now and not in 2025.

Ev's are 100% of the car purchases I've made this year.

My prediction is that several posters on this thread will never buy an EV, and there is nothing wrong with that. I wanted the safest vehicle I could be in. So I bought Tesla. If I was on a lower budget I would buy a Leaf (range 150).

For those of you that prefer ICE vehicles, enjoy your purchases.

 

[aja8888]

Ferrari, BMW, Maserati, Jaguar, Volvo, Etal. When will they realize that they have no future?

Well, BMW and Ferrari are going great guns here, as are many well built driving machines. That crowd won't settle for a kitchen appliance car, but their younger offspring may in the future. Jag and Volvo are cast offs looking for a market. And here is a little hybrid (V8/twin electric motors) that will light your fire (maybe not this crowd specifically though):

https://bringatrailer.com/listing/2015-porsche-918-spyder/

 

[bobandsherry]

Todays news: Chevy Bolt sales are down 41% from last year. Tesla model 3 sales are surging. Who could have predicted this?

Sometimes the devil's in the details and not the headline:

"The decline is more a function of us diverting production to Canada and South Korea, coupled with low stocks in the U.S.," GM spokesman Jim Cain told CNBC in an email. "We're still proceeding with the Q4 production increase we announced in the last sales release." Cain added that investors should expect lower U.S. sales for 2018 but higher global sales.

Most likely "diverted" as sales were so minor in US..... But also interesting to note:

Chevrolet saw a year-over-year decline of 11.4 percent

Ouch!

 

[JoeWras]

Over a 1,000 posts. Wow!

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Sometimes the devil's in the details and not the headline:



Most likely "diverted" as sales were so minor in US..... But also interesting to note:



Ouch!

I drove a Bolt once...I thought it was a decent vehicle...People think the seats are extremely uncomfortable, I didn't have any problems with them...My reason for not being interested in it was that it seemed "small", meaning a collision would be a bad experience...I felt the same way driving a BMW I3..just a bit small and unsafe in a collision...between the two I would pick the Bolt..the 2019 I3 range was increased to 153

 

[aja8888]

Over a 1,000 posts. Wow!

This is taking the place of the divorce/sex/psycho/family problems threads.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

This is taking the place of the divorce/sex/psycho/family problems threads.

That one sounds better already

 

[OldShooter]

A little pessimistic, but hard to argue with.

Thank you. I'll give you another one:

A good company is not necessarily a good investment. Conversely, a bad company is not necessarily a bad investment.

I have not studied this thread, but constantly seeing it in the new posts list caused me to click on the last page. It seems to be a debate about whether Tesla is a good company or not. Really the wrong debate IMHO. Good companies are frequently bad investments because optimists and zealots have baked every possible future good thing into the stock price. Any hiccup can knock that house of cards down and even sans hiccup, there may be limited upside to the price. (Mr. Efficient Market Hypothesis, Eugene Fama, would argue with this, and Richard Thaler would be right there telling him he was wrong. I'm with Thaler.)

Jeremy Segal, in "Stocks for the Long Run" illustrates this by comparing the performance of dull old RJ Reynolds with exciting IBM beginning IIRC in the 1950s as computers took off. IBM did turn out to be an extremely successful company for a long time, but as an investment it was handily outrun by RJR because IBM's price at the beginning was driven by the optimists and zealots. Segal refers to this as "the growth trap."

In contrast, Ben Graham taught Warren Buffet to invest in companies that they called "cigar butts." Typically these were companies that were so unliked in the market that they sold well below their liquidation value, ideally holding a lot of cash. No optimists or zealots to support the price, IOW. Bad companies that were good investments.

Only a rear-view mirror will be able to say where Tesla ends up.