Thoughts on TESLA

[oneill225]

I will jump in as I think some of this is you not reading what ERD put down... I am sure he will also respond.... this is my take on what was written...

I need a wingman.

If there is demand in other markets along with demand here, then why limit production to just 5,000 units? Seems strange to me that a growing company would just stop at 5K and then sell all over the world... I do remember reading that they are looking at building a plant in China, so maybe production will go up.... but saying that we will not sell here to sell there just does not pass the smell test...

I doubt that they are limiting to 5,000 for any reason other than that is all the line can handle without overstressing labor and equipment. It could also be the result of a battery supply constriction. Regardless, there are no indicators that they are not trying to increase output; it will just take time.

He never said that someone could not make money trading on Tesla... he asked what money YOU have made on trading.... IOW, if you bought at $300 and it kept going up and down past that mark and you never sold a single share you made no money on the swings... you have said you are an investor in Tesla, not a trader.... big difference...

I have some Tesla stock that I am holding long-term and I buy and sell on dips like the one that happened last Friday. I don't need to prove this claim to make the point that others can and have made money doing the same thing; just look at the stock prices and rebounds after big down days. Laying out my personal trades in detail would add nothing to this discussion.

He also never said he was a fan of Apple... you are putting words in his mouth he never said... he said that in his research that he thought it was undervalued and invested... it made him money... heck, he could hate the products they sell and still invest if he thinks he will get a good return...

I never said I was a fan of Tesla until the last post. Is it not fair to say that we are "fans" of companies that we invest in? What is a fan in your book (or ERD's)? I hope being called a fan is not a slur.

Might be an opportunity for someone who wants to take a risk... but even is someone did it does not mean they believe in Tesla... a trader trades stocks to try and get money... they do not care about the company at all nor the products they sell.... But, his point was not about trading, but Musk's continued false claims that some seem to sweep under the rug... but there have been a good number of companies that have been sued by shareholder who have lost due to their CEO making false claims.... think Enron as an example... if Tesla takes a huge drop in price I could almost guarantee a shareholder lawsuit based on his comments...

A little broad. I will assume you mean that a successful trader separates (or tries to separate) emotion from the decision to invest. That is fine. I think it goes both ways. If you are so angry or emotional because a CEO "lies" that you refuse to invest in an otherwise great company, you are not making rational decisions.

 

[NW-Bound]

Remember the guy who bought a certified pre-owned (CPO) car from Tesla sight-unseen and they did not know where the car was? He still has not had his car after two months, and having been contacted by 8 different people from Tesla.

However, he used his detective skills and tracked down the car that was supposed to be his being worked on in an auction house that also serviced used cars.

This saga is so interesting! He described how a used Mercedes or BMW got sold as CPO, and had a feeling that a brand new Tesla would not pass the BMW used car inspection. Tesla does not even vacuum the interior of their used cars prior to delivery.

This is the sign of a company desperate to cut costs to the bone to survive.

 

[aja8888]

$70K for a car that was treated like in the video. Nuts. I'd go buy a new BMW instead.

 

[NW-Bound]

$70K for a car that was treated like in the video. Nuts. I'd go buy a new BMW instead.

But, but, but it's not a Tesla. A Tesla is special, even a used one with dents and interior trash, so you cannot be so choosy.

 

[ls99]

Compared to this poor guy's experience, this summer I got a VIP red carpet treatment at Enterprise traiding in my 95 Jaguar and buying a 2016 Chevy Colorado. Yeah it was squeaky clean, no scratches or dents either. Washed, detailed.
OK, so it is not a tesla and not $70K either.

 

[ERD50]

I will jump in as I think some of this is you not reading what ERD put down... I am sure he will also respond.... this is my take on what was written...

Thanks Texas_Proud, you covered everything very well, while I spent some time in the "real world"

I honestly don't understand why people like oneill225 do what they do - divert from questions/comments they can't answer, take comments out of context, make up straw man comments so they have something to knock down. What's the point? If they can't provide straight answers, why bother? Do they really think they are changing the market with fan postings? I don't get it.

As you point out below - he takes two of my statements and just twists them. I know it comes across as snarky to make any comment about "reading comprehension", but is there any other explanation?

On Apple, I actually said , literal quote here, with emphasis this time: "And I played Devil's Advocate on all those thoughts, I never viewed the company from a "fan" perspective."

Yet, oneill225 says "So, you were a fan of Apple."

FYI, I did prefer Apple products at the time, but mostly because I disliked Windows so much. In 2009, I installed Linux on a cheap 'netbook' as a trial, and when my iMac died a little while later, Ubuntu/Xubuntu became my daily OS, and has been ever since. My smartphones are Android. Not an Apple 'fan', never was.

... He never said that someone could not make money trading on Tesla... he asked what money YOU have made on trading.... IOW, if you bought at $300 and it kept going up and down past that mark and you never sold a single share you made no money on the swings... you have said you are an investor in Tesla, not a trader.... big difference...


He also never said he was a fan of Apple... you are putting words in his mouth he never said... he said that in his research that he thought it was undervalued and invested... it made him money... heck, he could hate the products they sell and still invest if he thinks he will get a good return...

I need a wingman. ...

You obviously have some Tesla fan company here.

... I hope being called a fan is not a slur. ...

Not a slur, just descriptive. And it's fine to be a Tesla 'fan', a lot of people really like their products. But you should not let that blur your vision of the facts and ignore/excuse negative issues. Especially as an investor (this is the stock picking thread). See my comments again about playing Devil's Advocate.

In general, we will know a lot more at the end of the 1st Quarter.

-ERD50

 

[cyber888]

The dip to $302 last Friday was a buy. EU approved Model 3 for the entire EU market. https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2019-01-21/teslas-model-3-gets-green-light-in-europe. Im in the stock Friday, will trade it. Not buying the car

 

[Breedlove]

Kind of silly to put up with all of that after paying 70K . I would buy a Stinger and invest the rest and watch other people put up with this .
Always remember years ago , I think it was Car and driver , they asked a question why would anyone own a Porsche ? …….( Just to say you have one )

 

[oneill225]

I honestly don't understand why people like oneill225 do what they do - divert from questions/comments they can't answer, take comments out of context, make up straw man comments so they have something to knock down. What's the point? If they can't provide straight answers, why bother? Do they really think they are changing the market with fan postings? I don't get it.
As you point out below - he takes two of my statements and just twists them. I know it comes across as snarky to make any comment about "reading comprehension", but is there any other explanation?
On Apple, I actually said , literal quote here, with emphasis this time: "And I played Devil's Advocate on all those thoughts, I never viewed the company from a "fan" perspective."
Yet, oneill225 says "So, you were a fan of Apple."

FYI, I did prefer Apple products at the time, but mostly because I disliked Windows so much. In 2009, I installed Linux on a cheap 'netbook' as a trial, and when my iMac died a little while later, Ubuntu/Xubuntu became my daily OS, and has been ever since. My smartphones are Android. Not an Apple 'fan', never was.
You obviously have some Tesla fan company here.
Not a slur, just descriptive. And it's fine to be a Tesla 'fan', a lot of people really like their products. But you should not let that blur your vision of the facts and ignore/excuse negative issues. Especially as an investor (this is the stock picking thread). See my comments again about playing Devil's Advocate.
In general, we will know a lot more at the end of the 1st Quarter.

It's nothing personal ERD. I just don't see the point in jumping down the irrelevant rabbit holes and personal gotcha games that you seem to enjoy so much. Q1 results are predicted to be lower, but the TSLA stock price is trending higher in the pre-market. Looks like it may be bouncing back a little for those who bought on Friday's dip.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Kind of silly to put up with all of that after paying 70K . I would buy a Stinger and invest the rest and watch other people put up with this .
Always remember years ago , I think it was Car and driver , they asked a question why would anyone own a Porsche ? …….( Just to say you have one )

You have it backwards. Once you get used to driving a better car, you never want to go back to the inferior vehicles. Somebody posts a video and everybody acts like its some sort of gospel. Here's one guy trying to get views on his video. Would I listen to somebody who has a financial motivation to say outrageous things for profit, or listen to the thousands of people who speak without a financial incentive.The reality is this forum has numerous owners who realize why these cars are better. I understand the people who don't have them are unaware.

There are much better discussions on Bogleheads about Tesla's. Bogleheads doesn't have the "there weren't Tesla's when I was growing up, they must be terrible" crowd over there.

You are aware that Tesla's have the highest satisfaction rate amongst car owners? Doesn't that tell you something?

 

[mpeirce]

Seems Tesla is raising prices of a recharge.

Tesla is raising Supercharger rates around the world, with per kWh rates climbing about 33 percent in numerous markets.

 

[NW-Bound]

...The reality is this forum has numerous owners who realize why these cars are better. I understand the people who don't have them are unaware...

You are aware that Tesla's have the highest satisfaction rate amongst car owners? Doesn't that tell you something?

Tesla cars do have some features not available with other cars, including EVs. But they also have other quirks, or deficiencies. And then, there's the higher price.

If I cared about the acceleration and other gadgets like "fart noises" (a new juvenile feature that comes with the new software download as I just learned from the Web), I might not mind the occasional "Ctrl-Alt-Del" one has to do to reset the computer. Computer on wheels? NO. Not if it is going to hang up like "Windoz" blue screen of death! I am not paying that kind of money for this aggravation.

About Tesla buyers being happy, of course it's because they are a self-selected bunch. There are people who pay a lot for audio equipment with vacuum tubes, and people who go on expensive vacation trips. They do not mind paying the money, and in fact keep doing it again and again. But does that work for everybody?

 

[Running_Man]

Seems Tesla is raising prices of a recharge.

Tesla is raising Supercharger rates around the world, with per kWh rates climbing about 33 percent in numerous markets.

Tesla as a corporation is acting like a company with a 1st quarter cash generation machine going kaput. Layoffs/ending reference payments/closing the port in LA/ I await the audited year end statements from TESLA to see what they show.

The raise in Supercharger rates means it is more expensive to burn electricity than oil right now if you charge from the Superchargers. I can't imagine what the charge will be if they actually get to corner a very large percentage of the car market.

 

[Ready]

I’m pleased to see that Tesla is raising the rates for supercharging. The bays are over utilized in California. I have never used one but if I was on a long distance trip I would not want to have to worry about sitting around waiting for a bay to recharge the car. People who get free lifetime charging benefits have been hogging the bays to try and save a few dollars on electricity, just because they can. It was not what Tesla intended when they built out their charging network.

 

[mpeirce]

Unless we adopt a universal fast charging standard, various companies will have monopolies on charging (or at least "fast charging") for their cars.

It's a bit like GM using a special gas that only they can sell.

 

[ncbill]

Regarding a "serial hybrid", you are unlikely to see a "pure" serial hybrid, where the engine is strictly a generator for a buffer battery. The reason is, as you cruise down the highway, you are converting mechanical to electrical back to mechanical, and experiencing losses along the way. And additional losses in the battery for any buffering needed.

Because of that, they likely will also have a mechanical link from the engine to the wheels, to circumvent those losses. But since they can rely on the battery/motor for low speeds, and acceleration, and reverse, that mechanical link has the potential to be simplified. It would not need to handle the high torque of starting from a stop, or from hard acceleration. I think one of the new Hondas has a single speed connection between engine and wheels. Seems you could use a CVT to better match optimum engine speed, the main limitation with CVT is torque, and that torque can be carried by the battery/motor.

-ERD50

Ummm...sounds like the Chevy Volt?

from wikipedia:

"The Volt operates as a pure battery electric vehicle until its battery capacity drops to a predetermined threshold from full charge. From there, its internal combustion engine powers an electric generator to extend the vehicle's range as needed. When the engine is running it may be periodically mechanically linked (by a clutch) to a planetary gear set, and hence the output drive axle, to improve energy efficiency. The Volt's regenerative braking also contributes to the on-board electricity generation."

 

[Chuckanut]

Unless we adopt a universal fast charging standard, various companies will have monopolies on charging (or at least "fast charging") for their cars.

It's a bit like GM using a special gas that only they can sell.

A good point. I for one would be hesitant to buy an EV if it was limited to only certain charging stations. That would be like buying a car that only took a custom gas nozzle sanctioned by the car manufacturer.

What next? Digital cameras each with their own unique battery pack?

 

[NW-Bound]

A good point. I for one would be hesitant to buy an EV if it was limited to only certain charging stations. That would be like buying a car that only took a custom gas nozzle sanctioned by the car manufacturer.

What next? Digital cameras each with their own unique battery pack?

Er, not a good analogy. EVs will always have their own battery pack. Not even different Tesla models share the same battery pack.

Digital appliances all plug into the same wall outlet for charging. And we will want the same charging standard for EVs. It exists, but only for Level 2 and not yet at the supercharging level.

Back on digital gadgets, more and more devices now use USB connectors for charging, and that helps one with not having to juggle different wall adapters.

My travel laptop uses the new USB type C, which can handle more power than the old USB. In fact USB-C can provide up to 100W, which is far more than what most laptops need. It is however not widely used yet.

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Regarding a "serial hybrid", you are unlikely to see a "pure" serial hybrid, where the engine is strictly a generator for a buffer battery. .....

Because of that, they likely will also have a mechanical link from the engine to the wheels, to circumvent those losses.

Ummm...sounds like the Chevy Volt?

from wikipedia:

"The Volt operates as a pure battery electric vehicle until its battery capacity drops to a predetermined threshold from full charge. From there, its internal combustion engine powers an electric generator to extend the vehicle's range as needed. When the engine is running it may be periodically mechanically linked (by a clutch) to a planetary gear set, and hence the output drive axle, to improve energy efficiency. The Volt's regenerative braking also contributes to the on-board electricity generation."

No, I was careful to make the distinction of a "pure" serial hybrid, where the engine is strictly a generator for a buffer battery.

The part of your post that I bolded, points out the Chevy Volt does use a mechanical connection as well, making it a serial/parallel hybrid.

But as NW-Bound posted, the Nissan e-Power is a strictly serial hybrid. Not sure when it comes to US though.

-ERD50

 

[Lakewood90712]

Superchargers at gasoline stations

Unless we adopt a universal fast charging standard, various companies will have monopolies on charging (or at least "fast charging") for their cars.

It's a bit like GM using a special gas that only they can sell.

An aquentance who works for one of the major oil companies last year said all of the refiners plan to put in superchargers at some locations if the ev industry ever goes with a standard. Until then , no joy.

EDIT: They still want you inside buying Lotto tickets, snacks and beverages with insanely high profit margins. So If they have to install superchargers, they will do it.

 

[NW-Bound]

Back on Tesla shares as an investment, I read and agreed with an article that had this comment:

... the investor debate surrounding Tesla hasn't simply been about whether it can survive (that's looking pretty likely right now), or whether it can sell cars that consumers want to buy (it clearly can). It has been about whether Tesla, whose 245,000 2018 vehicle deliveries were still a fraction of what the world's biggest automakers achieved, can sell enough cars at a meaningful profit to justify the $50 billion-plus valuation it has been granted...

Note that Tesla has to justify the current valuation just for the share price to stabilize. In other words, it is more likely to go down than up, although the company is likely to stay around, according to the article writer.

See: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/top...ebate-over-the-dollar35000-model-3/ar-BBSqQ4G.

 

[ncbill]

No, I was careful to make the distinction of a "pure" serial hybrid, where the engine is strictly a generator for a buffer battery.

The part of your post that I bolded, points out the Chevy Volt does use a mechanical connection as well, making it a serial/parallel hybrid.

But as NW-Bound posted, the Nissan e-Power is a strictly serial hybrid. Not sure when it comes to US though.

-ERD50

IIRC, only at highway speeds under certain conditions.

So if you're using it around town as a commuter vehicle it is always in series mode.

 

[Running_Man]

Back on Tesla shares as an investment, I read and agreed with an article that had this comment:



Note that Tesla has to justify the current valuation just for the share price to stabilize. In other words, it is more likely to go down than up, although the company is likely to stay around, according to the article writer.

See: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/top...ebate-over-the-dollar35000-model-3/ar-BBSqQ4G.

Careful that writer is a former Seeking Alpha headline grabber author who now is Jim Cramer's favorite to retweet as "writing stuff noone else writes about!" Of course he is employed by Jim Cramer on his "The Street", so this helps the cross tweeting to show how smart each is, which I guess is how the Twitter business model is set up.

 

[kcowan]

Here is Ford back in the day (1917)
at a similar stage to Tesla today.

 

[Totoro]

Note that Tesla has to justify the current valuation just for the share price to stabilize.

Back of the envelope: 15 P/E for a stabilized company seems fair. That's a company of 3.4 billion net profit.


Assuming a 10% net profit margin can be done, ambitious but not unheard of, that's 34 billion USD of cars. Let's say we'll do that with 40k USD cars, that's 850k cars per year, 16.000+ cars a week.


That's what you need to believe, or something similar on the solar panel/battery side, or higher volume at lower profit, or lower volume at higher profit (unheard of at this scale)



Lots of expectation still in the price, in other words.