Universal basic income

[ERD50]

... You listed farm labor - but you can probably list similar numbers for dozens of other professions. ... And what is our unemployment rate? Yeah...

True, but farm labor stands out as it was once 90% of the total labor force - so a huge effect.

But yes, it happened in so many of the other smaller sectors as well.

I got into this with a friend recently. He is completely convinced that AI and robots will doom humanity, therefore we must enact UBI. ...

Just a guess, but I'd bet it's the other way 'round - your friend is completely convinced that we must enact UBI, therefore it helps his case to assume AI and robots will doom humanity.


-ERD50

 

[aja8888]

I think our concepts of economics fall short of contemplating a world in which scarcity may no longer exist. Futurists like Max Tegmark believe we are within conceptual range (100 years?)of being able to make anything from anything at the subatomic building block level. Accelerating advances in nanotechnology and genetic sequencing imply much longer lifespans will be possible. The conditions to create super intelligent AI exist now and it’s probability of emerging has spurred researchers to formulate strategies to prevent it from pursuing goals that could destroy us. If the only scarce resource is energy, then the last thing needed will be systems to harvest from the sun with the Dyson sphere concept as the pinnacle.
Capitalism creates wealth by improving productivity and reducing scarcity. I think something like VAT+UBI must precede this if we are to avoid a an oligopoly of a few multi trillionaires lording over billions of indigents. That is unless the AI decides that the suffering of the human condition only has one solution.

The sun will burn out someday. There's days when we have no sunlight. There are also nights! Outside of that, it's all good stuff.

 

[Independent]

In a sense, the machines will. As a thought experiment consider the extreme scenario of complete solar-powered automation, with no humans anywhere earning an income. Without income to spend, how does an individual obtain food, housing, etc.? If the individual can simply tell the machines to bring him food, build a house, etc. there is no limitation placed on requests by that individual, which leads to exhaustion of natural resources. UBI, conversely, forces an allocation scheme on individuals, thereby preserving a semblance of the world's current economic system.

I understand the idea that newer technology will produce more goods with less labor (it's been doing that for at least two centuries).

In our system, those goods belong to the people who own the machines. What is going to convince those people to share with the lesser employed workers? In the middle of the 20th century, there was a rough consensus in the US that owners should share through higher wages and higher taxes.

IMO, that went away at about the time the Soviet Union disintegrated (not a coincidence). I don't know what brings it back.

 

[GrayHare]

In our system, those goods belong to the people who own the machines. What is going to convince those people to share with the lesser employed workers? In the middle of the 20th century, there was a rough consensus in the US that owners should share through higher wages and higher taxes.

In the extreme "machines do everything for humans" scenario, abundance of supply facilitates sharing. For example, today in cities where water is abundant it is supplied for very low cost, free if you use the fire hydrant.

 

[Sue J]

Has anyone ever read player piano?

Ahhhh, Vonnegut.

I know I read this in my youth. One of the few fiction authors I read as I’m a non-fiction reader most of the time.

Can you give a quick overview?

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Ahhhh, Vonnegut.

I know I read this in my youth. One of the few fiction authors I read as I’m a non-fiction reader most of the time.

Can you give a quick overview?

The advancement of technology has rendered most jobs irrelevant. Machines have replaced most workers, and society has morphed into one where most people have "no use" and have a sense of purposeless. It's been a long, long time since I read it but I thought the irrelevant in Vonnegut's book were provided with a basic income and healthcare. While one would expect people to be happy given their needs being taken care of, they were not.

It is an interesting read, especially since Vonnegut wrote it long before the advent of personal computers, or for that matter the use of computers in business settings. It was published in 1952.

I read all of his books long ago (early 80's), perhaps I need to revisit them again.

 

[unclemick]

Charles Murray the 'Bell Curve', Libertarian guy is worth Goggling on U Tube on this very subject.

heh heh heh - . More fun than dryer sheets or the Four Yorshiremen.'

 

[dixonge]

Just a guess, but I'd bet it's the other way 'round - your friend is completely convinced that we must enact UBI, therefore it helps his case to assume AI and robots will doom humanity.


-ERD50

Well, don’t quit yer day job! Oh, wait... LOL

As far as I can tell, he is a true-blue techno-utopian. Think Kurzweil, singularity, immortality, etc. The UBI is just something we need to do as a result of the coming utopia. Or you may be right, but I don’t think so...