Self Driving Cars?

[Midpack]

Not sure what parking lots have to do with autonomous cars, that has to do with car/ride sharing, not self driving cars themselves so much.

Parking lots and spaces have a ton to do with cars, environment and life quality. If riders could be dropped off at their destination, a car could go park in a garage for example. The on street parking, mall parking lots, etc could be replaced by various types of parking alternatives. Think of your local mall being sorrounded by a park vs 100s of concrete parking spaces. The car park might be a half mile away.

Yeah, I should have elaborated a little more. I was drawing the distinction between:

• If we all have self-driving cars, we'll still need just as many parking spots, though I guess they could be relocated. However, that won't be until we get to fully autonomous cars. For the first decade(s), there won't be many cars running around without drivers. Most owner/drivers will want to be there to intervene manually vs letting their car drive around unattended.
• What will reduce the need for parking spots is car/ride sharing, where fewer cars are needed and fewer cars sit idle. Even excepting public transportation, that's being done now with taxis, and increasing with Uber, Lyft, etc. - without self driving cars. However, it stands to reason self driving cars could further increase car/ride sharing.

Hope that's a better explanation, thanks.

 

[Midpack]

Self-driving is great for people who:

• Cannot drive: elderly, small children, sight or otherwise impaired persons, sick persons.
• Shouldn't drive: drunk, high or emotional, texting, reading, snapchatting, taking selfies, talking on the phone, swatting kids in the backseat
• Don't want to drive
• Like to replace driving time with other times (reading, calling, sleeping, ..)

It isn't for people who:

• Want to drive themselves
• Live in remote areas with limited means: too expensive
• Like to own cars

Accidents will drop by a factor 10, the car manufacturer will most likely self-insure. Millions of lives will be saved, tens of millions injuries prevented. Parking space inside cities will be freed up, possibly removed.

I agree it will start out that way, but it won't end that way - nearer the end of the evolution to self driving [-]cars[/-] vehicles. For the reason you state in blue above, people who want to drive themselves will eventually be forced off the road because they will be 10 times (estimated) more dangerous than self-driving cars. And parking spaces will be scarcer eventually. And when manual driving is discouraged (or outlawed), fewer people will want to own cars - it will be a niche activity like horseback riding is today, maybe not allowed on public roads in the distant future (speculating?).

There are still a lot of people who are imagining self driving cars will be less safe, and offering up exceptions as "proof." I'm still waiting for one of them to offer up data to support self driving will be less safe. I know being effectively forced off the road doesn't seem possible to today's avid car owner/drivers, but...

...undoubtedly there was a period when horses & carts and automobiles shared the roads. But I'm not seeing horses on the roads much anymore.

And folks in remote areas just aren't going to have the same level of services as urban dwellers, just as they don't have access to taxis, Uber, Lyft, etc. today. It has to cost more to serve folks in remote areas, should urban dwellers absorb that cost?

 

[gerntz]

I suspect that the need to take over will be signaled by a vibrating seat (as Chevy Tahoes have) loud chimes and heads up displays. (as well as muting the sound system, essentially making the need totally obvious).

But that's longer than "a moment" to me.

 

[Fedup]

I do, I bet robots drive better than I do. But I might try Uber first.

 

[meierlde]

But that's longer than "a moment" to me.

Of course the first thing a car would do is slam on the brakes (automatic braking can be harder than human braking) as it always reduces the severity of collisions. Anyway having driven a Tahoe for a week with the seat cushion vibrator, it gets your attention very fast if one leg feels a vibration. Tones also do so fast.

 

[Totoro]

It seems it took about 20 years to transition from horse carriage to horseless carriage, starting with the big cities https://www.quora.com/How-long-did-...awn-carriages-off-the-roads-in-lieu-of-cars-1

In the cities, cars took over shortly after Henry Ford, so cars dominated by about 1920. Many cities banned horses, because of manure and dead animals left in the road. (The stench alone was awful). In the countryside, they dominated until about 1939 when the Depression ended.

I can see current cars being banned from highways and megacities pretty fast. Don't see why it would be from other areas though.

To continue the parallel: We don't see many horses on the roads not because they are forbidden, unclean or unsafe (they are, relatively speaking), but because they are expensive, clumsy and require skill to 'operate'. Most people just don't bother.

It's the same with driving your own car: why bother?

 

[savory]

Thanks for helping to clarify. But one key point. It is not the number of cars being parked. It is the spaces made available in consideration of retailers, for example. Next time you pass a strip mall,etc, count the number of empty spaces. Many roads are made 16 feet wider to accommodate a passenger who is going to a nearby location. If space planning was modernized, it would make a big difference in land use and taxes.

You are right that this will depend on people allowing their car to park itself. (Obviously, this will depend on the model used for this technology). But if the passenger can exit at their stop and an efficient parking scheme can be designed, it will be a big win for everyone.

 

[explanade]

I'm looking forward to it too.

Of course the car enthusiasts will be holdouts.

But the younger generation isn't as into cars as we were when we were teens.

 

[Amethyst]

A computer will respond millions of times faster than I ever could. And I've read that the Google car computers are "teaching" each other everything each individual car observes and responds to.

I hope they are being put in plenty of situations where they have to respond to wacky illogical human driving behavior that causes accidents.

I do, I bet robots drive better than I do. But I might try Uber first.

 

[explanade]

Though when I heard that the only accident that the Google SDCs ever had was when it was rear-ended by a human driver, I suspected that they program the cars to be very conservative, like your grandma.

 

[Which Roger]

One thing I'm wondering is what a self-driving car will do if it can suddenly not see what's around it. The EyeSight feature on my Subaru disables itself when I drive into very dense fog or near-white-out snow conditions. If the car can't see, it can't react. It can't pull over the the shoulder if it can't find the shoulder. It can't just stop, because it might get rear ended. When I've encountered these situations, I've been able to see well enough to proceed. But maybe my vehicle is just being conservative when it warns me, or maybe a fully self-driving car will have more sophisticated vision and will be able to see better than a human in any condition.

 

[explanade]

Some companies are working only on cameras while others are using LIDARs and other sensors.

 

[sengsational]

High utilization means fewer cars. You car sits unused 99% of the time, whereas if you just requested a car when you need to be moved, that vehicle could be in use most of the time...At least when people in its geography needed moving. All the chatter about parking...Think about it...If the car is busy moving someone, there's no need to park it. Think of an ASRS...After a task, good ones make their way to the location most likely to be near the next task. Presuming the same number of person miles, higher utilization means fewer cars required.

 

[explanade]

Yeah but people with money won't want to share cars.

After a few rides getting cars with odors, where people have just eaten or whatever, people will get hyperconscious about hygiene issues.

 

[dixonge]

No.

I'll have this to get me around economically (no computers in it):

View attachment 25518

This is what I want - a self-driving bug! LOL

 

[NW-Bound]

There's a Waymo (Google self-driving car division) facility near my home. We have seen their cars under test driving around here quite a bit. I was never ready with a camera to take a photo, but the test cars are built on an SUV, with a Lidar dome on the roof and all kinds of sensors hanging on the bumpers and fenders. Sometimes there is just the driver, some other times there is another person on the passenger seat. We have seen them driving on residential streets as well as main arteries.

I don't mind a self-driving car, when they have it. And we do not know when. According to many sources, Waymo (Google) is in front. Tesla, despite its vocal claims, does not have a truly autonomous car. Its "Autopilot" is only a driver assistance feature. Don't believe the hype and BS. As usual, you need to read independent reports, not some promotional info. Here's Tesla's current performance with a true autopilot.

The carmaker’s autonomous vehicles traveled a total of 550 miles on California public roads in October and November 2016 and reported 182 “disengagements,” or episodes when a human driver needs to take control to avoid an accident or respond to technical problems, according to a filing with the California Department of Motor Vehicles. That’s 0.33 disengagements per autonomous mile...

Waymo had a much lower rate of disengagements in 2016, improving to about 0.2 disengagements per thousand miles from 0.8 a year earlier.​

See: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...testing-self-driving-cars-on-california-roads

 

[GrayHare]

Autonomous vehicles are like mass transit: something we most want other drivers to use.

 

[marko]

I just test drove the new Mercedes with auto park. Freaked me out! It can parallel park, nose in, back in but extremely disorienting, spooky and a bit frightening!

I LOVED IT!

So. I can't wait to get into the first self driving car (especially if it's not my own; like a taxi or something). Can't imagine anything cooler.

 

[explanade]

I've seen Waymo cars shaped like rounded smart cars on the streets of Mountain View.

I wonder how insurance companies will look at auto park, whether they'll punish you with higher claims if the auto park causes damage.

 

[marko]

If you went back in time and told someone in the 1800's that in the future hardly anyone would own a horse, they'd think our standard of living went way down.

In 20 years kids might say "So, you really had to drive the car yourself? That's terrible! You must've crashed into a lot of things!"

 

[Hyperborea]

There's a Waymo (Google self-driving car division) facility near my home. We have seen their cars under test driving around here quite a bit. I was never ready with a camera to take a photo, but the test cars are built on an SUV, with a Lidar dome on the roof and all kinds of sensors hanging on the bumpers and fenders. Sometimes there is just the driver, some other times there is another person on the passenger seat. We have seen them driving on residential streets as well as main arteries.

Those are likely the ones that are based on a Lexus SUV platform. There's also the Fischer-Price like ones that have no traditional driving controls. You see these around the Mountain View CA Googleplex as well. These are registered as neighbourhood electric vehicles.

 

[NW-Bound]

The toy-car-looking Google test cars are limited to 25 mph. Google has tested these cars for a few years. The SUV test vehicles are the next step towards more practical cars.

I just test drove the new Mercedes with auto park. Freaked me out! It can parallel park, nose in, back in but extremely disorienting, spooky and a bit frightening!

I LOVED IT!

So. I can't wait to get into the first self driving car (especially if it's not my own; like a taxi or something). Can't imagine anything cooler.

There are things that a computer can do very well. Wait until you see a computer backing up and parallel parking a double trailer (a truck pulling two trailers).

This kind of engineering control problem is similar to rocket guidance that has been done long ago. An autonomous car that has to deal with more complex traffic, road, and weather conditions has a much much tougher job.

 

[Hyperborea]

The toy-car-looking Google test cars are limited to 25 mph. Google has tested these cars for a few years. The SUV test vehicles are the next step towards more practical cars.

The 25 mph limit is due to the regulations on neighbourhood electric vehicle. The SUV based ones are the longer running project and are the long term future.

The Fischer-Price cars are potentially the sooner to market solution. The speed limit simplifies a number of issues with the car. They would make a great choice for use as urban transport (maybe as a callable shared vehicle) and as a vehicle for the elderly and infirm.

 

[Walt34]

Yeah but people with money won't want to share cars.

After a few rides getting cars with odors, where people have just eaten or whatever, people will get hyperconscious about hygiene issues.

I think you're right. Some people are slobs and I don't want to think about getting a "fleet vehicle" after someone puked in it or even just ate fish for lunch. If I can afford it I'll be buying my own self-driving car.

 

[haha]

Yeah but people with money won't want to share cars.

After a few rides getting cars with odors, where people have just eaten or whatever, people will get hyperconscious about hygiene issues.

Maybe, but people who use Uber are often quite affluent, and in big cities buses have plenty people wearing suits and dresses morning and afternoons. More hygiene
issues in any hotel than in a rental car/Uber/self driver. Not to mention a date.

Ha