Dire situation in New York State

[NW-Bound]

While we are debating and comparing COVID-19 to the annual influenza, the death toll is now 2428 in the US, on 3/29.

That is not a high number, actually. But consider that the death count was 1201 on 3/26, just 3 days ago.

That's exponential growth. And that's what experts worry about. You just keep on doubling.

I am not trying to downplay the severity of COVID-19. Just pointing out we can't do too much more for the seasonal flu, either.

The problem with COVID-19 is that it destroys patient's lungs like no flu does. And if you give them oxygen and ventilators, some of the bad cases recover. If you don't, they die for lack of oxygen.

The above was what Chinese doctors observed in Wuhan, and they sounded the alarm. When Wuhan was put in total lockdown, they did not have that many dead patients. I can look it up again, but the number was small. They knew that this was new, and it was bad.

Doctors all around the world deal with the flu all the time. They say this is different. Why do we keep doubting them? And we can see patients piling up with our own eyes too.

 

[youbet]

How we act will define the outcome.

.

Oh boy....... We are in trouble!

 

[superdave]

Yeah, I agree. My mom was getting ready for a cruise, but was sick. Her doctor tested her for the flu, determined it was negative, and off she went. Way different for COVID-19.

And you think this was the right thing to do? Knowingly go on the cruise with an infectious disease?

 

[NW-Bound]

How we act will define the outcome.

Oh boy....... We are in trouble!

It's better to act late than not.

If we are in trouble up to our chest, it's way better than trouble up to our nostrils.

And while standing on our toes.

 

[CardsFan]

The problem with COVID-19 is that it destroys patient's lungs like no flu does. And if you give them oxygen and ventilators, some of the bad cases recover. If you don't, they die for lack of oxygen.

Doctors all around the world deal with the flu all the time. They say this is different. Why do we keep doubting them? And we can see patients piling up with our own eyes too.

For the record, I am not doubting doctors, I am simply stating facts, as opposed to hyperbole.

This is a serious virus, and needs to be addressed by serious people on the front line. Most of us here are either going to be bystanders, or victims. We are only guessing. We have only a fraction of the data available. And even the experts are still trying figure out the data.

I was going to say more, but decided, this was enough to keep the conversation open.

 

[48Fire]

And you think this was the right thing to do? Knowingly go on the cruise with an infectious disease?

Ummm....the doctor cleared her with a flu test. She tested negative.

 

[NW-Bound]

For the record, I am not doubting doctors, I am simply stating facts, as opposed to hyperbole.

This is a serious virus, and needs to be addressed by serious people on the front line. Most of us here are either going to be bystanders, or victims. We are only guessing. We have only a fraction of the data available. And even the experts are still trying figure out the data.

I was going to say more, but decided, this was enough to keep the conversation open.

Yes. I also try to figure out what other people are thinking.

If doctors say "Try not to get sick all at the same time, so that we can save you", is that a hyperbole? New Yorkers are getting sick in droves right now. I don't think that's hyperbole. It's fact.

Of course nobody really knows how the virus actually spreads, so experts tell us to keep distance, to wash our hands, blah blah blah... Why is it wrong? Why is that fear mongering?

Until we know more, is it prudent to not have a big political rally and march like Spain did in Madrid on March 8? Spaniards are paying a heavy price for that.

 

[ivinsfan]

I'm well aware of the short comings of the annual flu vaccine. But my point was there is one, and it is better than zero, which is what we have for Covid.

And yes, the flu treatments are symptom management. Tamiflu, etc., which can often reduce the duration and severity. I'm quite sure anyone who's been survived Covid would be happy to have a medication protocol that can claim the same.

Didn't say anything about 100%, but both are enough for me to be comfortable moving about in the world during flu season. So something like that would help me have that same comfort w/Covid.

On Tamiflu the jury is still out as to if it actually decreases the severity of the flu. Duration maybe a day shorter which is great if you feel awful.

 

[Corporateburnout]

For the folks who still think that deaths from this virus will be far lower than the flu, the task force new estimate is 80,000 to 160,000 deaths according to Dr. Birx.

 

[NW-Bound]

For the folks who still think that deaths from this virus will be far lower than the flu, the task force new estimate is 80,000 to 160,000 deaths according to Dr. Birx.

The above number is not bad at all, really. I think that this projection is based on people obeying the social distancing guidelines that Trump just extended until April 30.

We have to each do our part, and hope for the best.

As I mentioned elsewhere, China is reopening Wuhan, and restarting their factories. The sooner you take this seriously, the sooner you get it over with.

The irony of China restarting is that their buyers of goods now say they are busy closing down, and cannot accept delivery.

 

[CardsFan]

Yes. I also try to figure out what other people are thinking.

If doctors say "Try not to get sick all at the same time, so that we can save you", is that a hyperbole? New Yorkers are getting sick in droves right now. I don't think that's hyperbole. It's fact.

Of course nobody really knows how the virus actually spreads, so experts tell us to keep distance, to wash our hands, blah blah blah... Why is it wrong? Why is that fear mongering?

Until we know more, is it prudent to not have a big political rally and march like Spain did in Madrid on March 8? Spaniards are paying a heavy price for that.

I think we agree more than we disagree. Everything above is spot on.

Where we depart is when people like us (hey, I got a spreadsheet so I can predict the future) start throwing around numbers based on simplistic (at best) mathematical models.

People with no direct knowledge of facts (most of us here) should not be making "projections" (guesses?). I can say what I HOPE will happen. Anything beyond that is pure speculation and serves no purpose as a "prediction".

 

[NW-Bound]

Projection is hard, because a lot depends on how people act.

People are not like guinea pigs or mice in a pen that researchers can study how bad the community spread can get. People with a blasé attitude will finally get scared and isolate themselves when they see their friends, relative, neighbors succumb.

Many people view this as the same as they do hurricanes, tsunami, earthquakes, tonadoes, etc... They think it cannot happen to them. Only when they realize the danger when it hits close to home do they take action to protect themselves.

When their attitude turns, that's hard to predict I think. But hey, I am always wary of this virus since I followed the news in Wuhan (just because I had the time), so nobody needed to convince me that it ain't no flu.

 

[CardsFan]

Projection is hard, because a lot depends on how people act.

People are not like guinea pigs or mice in a pen that researchers can study how bad the community spread can get. People with a blasé attitude will finally get scared and isolate themselves when they see their friends, relative, neighbors succumb.

Many people view this as the same as they do hurricanes, tsunami, earthquakes, tonadoes, etc... They think it cannot happen to them. Only when they realize the danger when it hits close to home do they take action to protect themselves.

When their attitude turns, that's hard to predict I think. But hey, I am always wary of this virus since I followed the news in Wuhan (just because I had the time), so nobody needed to convince me that it ain't no flu.

No arguments from me. And I agree "it ain't no flu". From a previous post, maybe in a different thread, the quote from Donald Rumsfeld (paraphrased) "and then there are the things that we don't know that we don't know". That is where we are at.

 

[cbbennet]

Well I don't think any random healthy people are getting tested. Is anybody aware of any places that you can walk up and get a test, just because you want one?

Hong Kong airport asks passengers arriving from Germany (and probably other high risk countries) if they would like a free COVID-19 test, even if the passenger's temperature tested normal. The kid across the street returned to the US after his study abroad program in Germany was shut down. He never had his temperature taken. One of his fellow students in the program went home to Hong Kong, felt fine the whole time, and took the test as a lark - since it was free. - and her test is positive. Needless to say both students are under quarantine on their respective homes. My neighbor shows no symptoms and finishes his quarentined on Tues. He's been sweating it though. His dad is in his 70s.

 

[NameRedacted]

The above number is not bad at all, really. I think that this projection is based on people obeying the social distancing guidelines that Trump just extended until April 30.

We have to each do our part, and hope for the best.

As I mentioned elsewhere, China is reopening Wuhan, and restarting their factories. The sooner you take this seriously, the sooner you get it over with.

The irony of China restarting is that their buyers of goods now say they are busy closing down, and cannot accept delivery.

The above number [80,000 to 160,000 deaths] is really, really bad considering that we've had to shut down half the economy to get it even that low. How much higher would it have been otherwise? For comparison, over the last 8 years the average number of deaths from flu per year is about 38,000 with a high of 61,000.





April 30th is way too soon and just wishful thinking with the intention of "saving" the stock market. It's predicted that New York will hit peak around April 14th. Other areas are at least 2 weeks behind and so will be hitting their peaks around that time.


Other countries are talking about June.



If we re-open on April 30th, we'll see the rates continue to drop for a week or two. Some people will prematurely declare victory. At that point we'll see the numbers start to accelerate up again followed by a humiliating reversal and re-imposition of restrictions.



Of course, that won't happen. My prediction is that around April 14th, they'll suddenly announce the target is now May 14th/31st and this will keep happening until it's really under control.

 

[NW-Bound]

The above number is not bad at all, really. I think that this projection is based on people obeying the social distancing guidelines that Trump just extended until April 30...

The above number [80,000 to 160,000 deaths] is really, really bad considering that we've had to shut down half the economy to get it even that low. How much higher would it have been otherwise? For comparison, over the last 8 years the average number of deaths from flu per year is about 38,000 with a high of 61,000.

Well, but again, this "ain't no flu". The above number is actually on the optimistic side.

Dr. Birx, White House coronavirus response coordinator, said

... U.S. deaths could range from 1.6 million to 2.2 million is a worst case scenario if the country did "nothing" to contain the outbreak, but said even "if we do things almost perfectly," she still predicts up to 200,000 U.S. deaths.

Again, 200K does not scare me. A couple of millions, now, that is going to be felt by most families.

 

[NW-Bound]

Today, NYC is marshaling all hospitals to turn some of them into COVID-19 hospitals only.

Non-COVID-19 patients will be taken to the US Navy hospital ship USNS Comfort, which has 1,000 beds. They say this ship is not enough, and need more.

 

[Just_Steve]

Today, NYC is marshaling all hospitals to turn some of them into COVID-19 hospitals only.

Non-COVID-19 patients will be taken to the US Navy hospital ship USNS Comfort, which has 1,000 beds. They say this ship is not enough, and need more.

Where are you getting your info?
They have more.

https://untappedcities.com/2020/03/30/photos-inside-the-new-temporary-hospital-at-javits-center/

"Governor Cuomo stated last week that he hopes to open a 1,000-plus bed facility in each of New York City’s five boroughs, and Westchester, Rockland, Nassau, and Suffolk counties, in addition to the four that were approved previously for the Javits Center, SUNY Stony Brook, SUNY Westbury, and Westchester County Center."

 

[NW-Bound]

I meant they wanted more ships. Like 40 more. De Blasio said that. That's in addition to all the makeshift hospitals that they are trying to erect.

 

[CardsFan]

I meant they wanted more ships. Like 40 more. De Blasio said that. That's in addition to all the makeshift hospitals that they are trying to erect.

Please cite. I can't find it with a search.

But, if true, he is asking for twice the number of beds currently existing in the city (23,000 exist, he wants 40,000 more). https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-new-york-coronavirus-outbreak-how-many-hospital-beds/

 

[ivinsfan]

I meant they wanted more ships. Like 40 more. De Blasio said that. That's in addition to all the makeshift hospitals that they are trying to erect.

Where are you going to find 40 hospital ships? And no offence buy why should NY get them all.

 

[brewer12345]

Where are you going to find 40 hospital ships? And no offence buy why should NY get them all.

Because they whine really loudly? They can have Colorado's share of the fleet.

 

[NW-Bound]

One can search for "De Blasio 40 ships".

Of course there are no 40 ships, and everybody knows that.

He just wants to let people know how dire the situation is there, and that's what would be needed to have enough hospital beds.

 

[CardsFan]

Because they whine really loudly? They can have Colorado's share of the fleet.

And Missouri's too (though might be able to get some small ships up the Mississippi)

Basically NYC thinks they deserve them because they are NYC.

 

[Aerides]

Can we maybe dial back the state vs. state anger here? As of today, NY has 4x more cases than any other, and more than half the daily deaths added in the US.

They are already making a tent hospital in the Javits center and Central Park.