Dire situation in New York State

[Gumby]

I started a separate thread, but here's a link to a simple infectious disease model you can use.

Make Your Own SIR Model

I built the spreadsheet for Kentucky using this model. It's interesting. Assumes complete transmission. I used doubling every 3 days and 8.5 days to recover.

One of the problems I have is that I think the recovered numbers may not be accurately reported by all states. If I look on the worldometer site previously referenced and look at my state (CT), the total cases equals deaths plus active cases. Surely some of the people infected several weeks ago have recovered, but it doesn't show that.

 

[NW-Bound]

I agree they are facts. But I also believe those are driven by what MIGHT turn out to be irrational fears? I don't know, will be a rear view understanding of the facts I think. I hope for many peoples sake it will be irrational in hindsight, not saying it is for sure.

A fair reasoning. There have been many people who think that they have COVID-19, when they just have a cold or the normal flu. We have seen examples with posters here.

But doctors in hospitals are already limiting the patients they admit. They can only accept the most severe cases, with symptoms that are consistent with COVID-19, basically shortness of breath and low oxygen in the blood, fever, etc... This virus destroys patient's lungs like no flu.

And they still don't have enough room, even after that triage.

So, if I trust doctors in hospitals, I will have to say that after all the many "fake" COVID-19 cases, there are still a lot of true COVID-19 cases. And the number of deaths is rising exponentially. This is most alarming. Dead bodies do not lie. They may be miscounted, or undercounted.

 

[NW-Bound]

One of the problems I have is that I think the recovered numbers may not be accurately reported by all states. If I look on the worldometer site previously referenced and look at my state (CT), the total cases equals deaths plus active cases. Surely some of the people infected several weeks ago have recovered, but it doesn't show that.

Yes.

I know from the local health officials that in Arizona, the very 1st case of COVID-19 was a person who was confirmed on Jan 26. By Feb 21, he was released from isolation, and was declared fully recovered. Note the long time until recovery was declared.

So, there is at least one recovery, and I am sure there are more, but the Worldometer still shows 0.

I wonder how well cases are tracked and reported.

I believe that both the confirmed cases and recoveries are underreported. The death count is more reliable, because it involves death certificates, cremation or burial. The death count is still underreported due to misclassification, but that should still be much less than the other counts.

 

[ivinsfan]

In our state it appears that they are listing daily the amount of people testing positive that were not hospitalized as "number of people released from quarantine" per day. 14 days out so they are neither in the hospital or deceased.

 

[cathy63]

One of the problems I have is that I think the recovered numbers may not be accurately reported by all states. If I look on the worldometer site previously referenced and look at my state (CT), the total cases equals deaths plus active cases. Surely some of the people infected several weeks ago have recovered, but it doesn't show that.

Yes, this is true. I know our county does not have the resources to follow up on people with positive tests who are not hospitalized, so they don't know or report on it when these people recover.

We have info on positive tests by age, by gender, # of hospitalizations by age, total # of intensive care hospitalizations, but nothing about recoveries.

 

[garyt]

I agree they are facts. But I also believe those are driven by what MIGHT turn out to be irrational fears? I don't know, will be a rear view understanding of the facts I think. I hope for many peoples sake it will be irrational in hindsight, not saying it is for sure.

Doesn't it make more sense to overreact and be wrong then to underreact and face a calamity?

 

[USGrant1962]

...

But doctors in hospitals are already limiting the patients they admit. They can only accept the most severe cases, with symptoms that are consistent with COVID-19, basically shortness of breath and low oxygen in the blood, fever, etc... This virus destroys patient's lungs like no flu.

And they still don't have enough room, even after that triage.

...

Source? I haven't seen a single report of a full hospital (yet).

 

[Aerides]

One of the problems I have is that I think the recovered numbers may not be accurately reported by all states. If I look on the worldometer site previously referenced and look at my state (CT), the total cases equals deaths plus active cases. Surely some of the people infected several weeks ago have recovered, but it doesn't show that.

I think this is very likely true for non-hospitalized, low symptom cases. Those that were symptomatic enough to be tested, but not admitted. Are those folks, once healthy, reporting back reliably? Is there solid tracking of all these cases? I kinda doubt that, or at least doubt the timeliness of it. Probably a majority of the recovered cases are hospital discharges.

The worldometer Recovery number has been increasing steadily the past few days though, so it might just be a more lagging number. Also it probably takes longer to ride this thing out and be truly recovered vs. the alternative...

Still way too early to figure out US averages from anything though imo.

 

[Birdie Num Nums]

The fact that the rate is dropping even with all the dumb things I've seen people do is encouraging....

I saw an old guy reading a death notice posted in the lobby, then as he turns to walk to the mailbox he picks his teeth with his finger...

On my last day of shopping, weeks ago, after people had been well warned and panic buying started, I saw a woman near the exit of the supermarket take her open hand and rub her entire face with it!

Doc Adams of Gunsmoke was a Number One example of what not to do with your hands and face. Check him out the next time you see him in an old episode.

 

[Sunset]

The death number will still be far lower than than the normal flu.

The people who ran out and had to clear the shelves of TP, bread, milk, butter, foodstuffs, baby chickens, and seeds, shouldn't complain about how the government was't prepared.

It's not over yet, and now Dr Fauci says:

"Dr. Fauci says U.S. could see 100,000-200,000 deaths"

That's quite a bit more than the flu... which is understandable as it's more infectious and more deadly (even before hospitals are swamped, which will cause death rates from everything to go up).

https://abcnews.go.com/US/coronavirus-live-updates-global-pandemic-killed-30000/story?id=69859267

 

[audreyh1]

Source? I haven't seen a single report of a full hospital (yet).

I’ve been seeing reports of full ICUs at hospitals. Here is a close one for us, they were overwhelmed with a large outbreak. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/us/southwest-georgia-icu-units-full/index.html

 

[Sunset]

Here in Chicago, the reserves are converting the McCormick Center (a giant convention center) into a Covid-19 only hospital, of about 2,000 beds.
It takes a couple of weeks to do this, so they cannot wait for the hospitals to be swamped before starting or it will be a disaster.

Obviously it won't be a "real" hospital, but probably better than lying on the hallway floors like they do in Spain.

<edit: added number of beds for McCormick>

 

[Chuckanut]

Totally agree. The actual mortality rate for the flu is way lower than stated. We talk about the number of people who have/had CV-19 but not been diagnosed but I'd bet the number of undiagnosed flu cases dwarfs that.

But, if you die doesn't a doctor have to put a cause of death on the certificate? Death in an otherwise reasonably healthy person would be a huge sign that something is wrong.

 

[garyt]

Here in Chicago, the reserves are converting the McCormick Center (a giant convention center) into a Covid-19 only hospital, of about 2,000 beds.
It takes a couple of weeks to do this, so they cannot wait for the hospitals to be swamped before starting or it will be a disaster.

Obviously it won't be a "real" hospital, but probably better than lying on the hallway floors like they do in Spain.

<edit: added number of beds for McCormick>

Same here in Detroit, TCF Center which was supposed to hold the now cancelled Auto Show will be transformed to a hospital.

 

[NW-Bound]

I’ve been seeing reports of full ICUs at hospitals. Here is a close one for us, they were overwhelmed with a large outbreak. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/us/southwest-georgia-icu-units-full/index.html

Here in Chicago, the reserves are converting the McCormick Center (a giant convention center) into a Covid-19 only hospital, of about 2,000 beds.
It takes a couple of weeks to do this, so they cannot wait for the hospitals to be swamped before starting or it will be a disaster.

Obviously it won't be a "real" hospital, but probably better than lying on the hallway floors like they do in Spain.

<edit: added number of beds for McCormick>

Same here in Detroit, TCF Center which was supposed to hold the now cancelled Auto Show will be transformed to a hospital.

Yes, yes, and yes.

If a person defines a full hospital as one with a sign saying "No Vacancy" at the front like at a motel, then he will never see that.

A hospital is always open, in order to accept patients in trauma, such as heart attack, stroke, accidents, etc... And in order to make room, they turn away cases that they would normally admit. And they convert ordinary rooms into ICU rooms, and put up tents to move less critical patients out to the parking lot.

And yes, many hospitals are converting themselves to be "COVID-19 hospitals". Dr. Dave Price in a video to family and friends that went viral and posted here twice said that his Weill Cornell Hospital in NYC with 1,200 beds was now a 100% COVID-19 hospital. That video was 1 week ago!

And they also discharge patients who are deemed well enough to make room for others who look worse. Some of these discharged patients then later turn worse, and die at home. Paramedics in NYC are reporting this, when they are called for the 2nd time to home of patients that they previously transported, and try unsuccessfully to revive them.

It's all there in the news, if one cares to read it.

 

[Tiger8693]

Doesn't it make more sense to overreact and be wrong then to underreact and face a calamity?

Or overreact and create one?

 

[NW-Bound]

Or overreact and create one?

Are the COVID-19 patients and doctors treating them creating this medical crisis for some ulterior motives?

Hmmm.... Is this a worldwide conspiracy, because it happens in other countries too, particularly Europe where thousands die each day?

Lemme think...

 

[Tiger8693]

Are the COVID-19 patients and doctors treating them creating this medical crisis for some ulterior motives?

Hmmm.... Is this a worldwide conspiracy, because it happens in other countries too, particularly Europe where thousands die each day?

Lemme think...

Not what I said, or even insinuated at all, so....

Hysteria doesn't have to be due to conspiracy, just good old fear. And maybe it's warranted, I don't know. And neither do you.

 

[NW-Bound]

Not what I said, or even insinuated at all, so....

Hysteria doesn't have to be due to conspiracy, just good old fear. And maybe it's warranted, I don't know. And neither do you.

Well, nobody knows how bad it is going to be. It's because the US does not even know what it should do. How we act will define the outcome.

But I can see that it is bad enough. Way worse than a flu. It cannot be business as usual.

 

[MichaelB]

The continuing comparison to the flu is only that is the only pandemic that we can compare it to in modern times, and I'm not saying it is the same illness. We cannot compare this to the 1918 Spanish flu, as public water and sanitation systems were only in their infancy and not the norm.

The H1N1 swine flu (I concede it is not the same illness), has some of the same symptoms, and attacked primarily those over 60. My DW, who taught Family and Consumer Science for over 30 years, always taught the basic principles of simple hygiene and food hygiene in the first week. Many students were aghast at what seemed to be basic common sense, but apparently weren't practiced at home. When the CDC guidelines came out back in 2009-2010 to be taught to all students, many were amazed that it was exactly what had been taught to them for the past 30 years.

COVID and seasonal flu can’t be compared today. Perhaps in the future when both have achieved a “steady state”. We still don’t understand COVID, cannot assess the level of danger, and don’t know how to treat or stop it.

One thing for sure, the seasonal flu has not put this burden on our heath care system or health workers.

 

[48Fire]

To quote Donald Rumsfeld "There are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns. That is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know."

IMO, this quote applies in this situation. It matters not whether it is an amateur observer/prognosticator, a health professional, a statistician or a government official. Only history will be able to relate the "real" numbers.

I remember when he said this, and I was familiar with this statement in my line of work. But a lot of people thought he was nuts, and they ridiculed him for the statement. I stopped saying it

 

[48Fire]

COVID and seasonal flu can’t be compared today. Perhaps in the future when both have achieved a “steady state”. We still don’t understand COVID, cannot assess the level of danger, and don’t know how to treat or stop it.

One thing for sure, the seasonal flu has not put this burden on our heath care system or health workers.

Yeah, I agree. My mom was getting ready for a cruise, but was sick. Her doctor tested her for the flu, determined it was negative, and off she went. Way different for COVID-19.

 

[Aerides]

The death number will still be far lower than than the normal flu.

I think everyone here hopes you're right, but your opinion does not seem to be shared by any of the health pros working this crisis. So, rather than continue to make such predictions, we have only to wait a month or 3 and we'll all know.

For the flu there is at least a vaccine, widely-available real-time testing, and proven medication and treatment protocols - none of those currently exist for Covid.

 

[CardsFan]

The death number will still be far lower than than the normal flu.

I think everyone here hopes you're right, but your opinion does not seem to be shared by any of the health pros working this crisis. So, rather than continue to make such predictions, we have only to wait a month or 3 and we'll all know.

For the flu there is at least a vaccine, widely-available real-time testing, and proven medication and treatment protocols - none of those currently exist for Covid.

I am not going to make the same prediction as Winemaker, but regarding the bold above, you are at least partially wrong on 2 of 3.

The annual flu vaccine is based on a best guess, about a year in advance, of the strains that might be prevalent next season. Some times they are right, some times the strain is close enough that the vaccine provides some protection, and some times they are wrong. There is no 100%, or 95%, or even 90% certainty in the flu vaccine.

Regarding medication and treatment for the seasonal flu. As far as I am aware there are none, beyond treating the symptoms. Stay hydrated, take OTC medications for the symptoms, stay home, rest. Yes, some are hospitalized, but that is mainly to provide IV hydration, and to try to stem off the other bad actors that normally claim a flu victim (pneumonia and other bacterial infections, primarily).

I am not trying to downplay the severity of COVID-19. Just pointing out we can't do too much more for the seasonal flu, either.

 

[Aerides]

I'm well aware of the short comings of the annual flu vaccine. But my point was there is one, and it is better than zero, which is what we have for Covid.

And yes, the flu treatments are symptom management. Tamiflu, etc., which can often reduce the duration and severity. I'm quite sure anyone who's been survived Covid would be happy to have a medication protocol that can claim the same.

Didn't say anything about 100%, but both are enough for me to be comfortable moving about in the world during flu season. So something like that would help me have that same comfort w/Covid.