How long to wait

[MuirWannabe]

It’s like the marshmallow experiment, except for adults. And it’s real life, not an experiment.



If 6 mo is the absolute deadline (Dec ‘20), then one might as well get on with it, as I suspect in 6 mo time, the situation will be not much different (though possibly more dire). I agree that change and adaptation is a challenge, unpleasant and frustrating.

That’s one of my concerns. We wait 6 more months. They say, well in just another 6 months we will be there with a vaccine. So wait again. Then, when that 6 months expires, they say wait a big longer. Those initial vaccine trials failed, but we know we can get there. So, the waiting goes on. And on.

Will that happen? I don’t know. But you could easily be waiting 3 years Into this thing and still be no closer to conquering it. And like we tell all the OMY’ers. That’s 3 less years of life to do what you really want.

As for the marshmallow experiment. That’s kind of an interesting analogy. But I look at it as though I did my delayed gratification throughout my adulthood. Now in retirement is the time not to delay gratification. If not now, when? Heck, we’ve got a whole long thread here on blowing that dough.

Appreciate your thoughts.

 

[Aerides]

I don't think of waiting in terms of vaccine Y/N. But therapies, testing, knowledge, will all have incremental improvements. So getting it will be easier to avoid, getting deathly ill less likely, etc.

I mean, already, you would rather get sick with it today vs. on March 25th - the average person's odds have already improved. So who knows what the next few months will bring?

 

[MuirWannabe]

I don't think of waiting in terms of vaccine Y/N. But therapies, testing, knowledge, will all have incremental improvements. So getting it will be easier to avoid, getting deathly ill less likely, etc.

I mean, already, you would rather get sick with it today vs. on March 25th - the average person's odds have already improved. So who knows what the next few months will bring?

That first paragraph of yours is a very good point, although who knows how long that still may require us to wait. But those are things to watch for.

Regards your second paragraph, is that true? My understanding is the major reason death rate has dropped significantly is simply cause certain states are no longer sending COVID ill patients into nursing homes. That spiked the death rate dramatically early on. But otherwise, I wasn’t aware there are definitive learned measures knocking down death rate with COVID for the masses.

 

[Sunset]

The OPs words, and this discussion, somewhat reminds me of the debate about whether to have the plug pulled on you when you are in a vegetative state. Ok, not as serious but similar.

For some of us, quality of life might outweigh quantity. If Covid is going to keep us locked down for years, and you cannot do a LARGE number of things you wanted to be doing when you retired, then what is the point of living in such a paranoid state...ie, up the risk level, and just do some of these things anyway (if available). I *think* that is what the OP is saying, and I am tempted at times to get on that wagon.

Quality of life is important, I keep telling DW this when I want to eat a RED meat burger, or don't get excited by a bean burger.

At the same time, I'm conflicted as I want to live.
Today I went to Redbox and rented "Birds of Prey" as I liked the odd humor in the "Suicide Squad" movie.
I will feel pretty stupid, if I end up sick and die because I rented a movie.
Imagine my tombstone engraving:

He rented a comedy flick.
He laughed so hard he cried.
A week later he was sick.
At the hospital he died.
​

For me the Quality of life improvement has to be big, to compensate for more risk.

In the end it's an imperfect judgement call.

 

[Sunset]

.....

As for the marshmallow experiment. That’s kind of an interesting analogy. But I look at it as though I did my delayed gratification throughout my adulthood. Now in retirement is the time not to delay gratification.....

What a funny, but possibly true thought, imagine there is no vaccine...

After 5 years people leave their houses catch the virus again and again and again until they die.

All those people that ate the marshmallow throughout their life, blew all their dough, and enjoyed many frivolous aspects of consumerism may end up winning the game, compared to the delayed gratification folks with bags of gold...

 

[braumeister]

This is the world we have. We have to live in it, and hiding makes no sense to me. Take all precautions and do what you want to do.

 

[Sunset]

This is the world we have. We have to live in it, and hiding makes no sense to me. Take all precautions and do what you want to do.

We don't hide, we do what we want, but with modifications.

Some things we cannot do.
I want to cruise .... oops no ships running and no ports to stop at.
I missed my UK trip...
Can't fly to many countries as they won't allow it, can't even drive up into the wilderness of Canada for fishing.

At least now we can do some things we never could do before, like go into the bank wearing a mask and nobody bats an eye

 

[Walt34]

At least now we can do some things we never could do before, like go into the bank wearing a mask and nobody bats an eye

At our bank you have to make an appointment first. Kinda takes the fun out of it.

 

[bhoferp]

Our local bank was taken over by a regional bank in the spring. At the "new bank" you have to be wearing a mask and shake the front door and someone will let you in. Talk about professional?!? I am wanting to transfer my accounts to another bank in our small town (where you can actually walk into the lobby), but worry about covid risks.

 

[Gumby]

This is the world we have. We have to live in it, and hiding makes no sense to me. Take all precautions and do what you want to do.

I have one caveat. Inherent in the concept of human agency is that we are free to decide for ourselves what we are willing to risk in order to do what we want. However, we are not entitled to force others to take a risk so that we can do what we want.

So for example, suppose I am a young 20 something. I may feel it is worth the risk of contracting COVID to attend a rave party with 200 of my closest friends, where we dance up against each other with no masks. Fine, but supposing I do contract COVID at the party, I have now increased the risk for everyone I contact between the party and when I notice symptoms and get tested positive. My grandmother, who lives with me, may not be willing to risk her life so I can go to the rave. https://www.newsweek.com/texas-man-dies-covid-19-after-visit-granddaughter-infected-party-1520181

And that is the very thorny issue to be considered when we say 'do what you want to do'.

 

[REWahoo]

Our local bank was taken over by a regional bank in the spring. At the "new bank" you have to be wearing a mask and shake the front door and someone will let you in. Talk about professional?!?

I see it as very professional and considerate of the safety of employees and customers. Many businesses are using this process to insure only folks wearing masks gain entry since a vocal few do not and cause a scene when asked to comply.

 

[Aerides]

Regards your second paragraph, is that true? My understanding is the major reason death rate has dropped significantly is simply cause certain states are no longer sending COVID ill patients into nursing homes. That spiked the death rate dramatically early on. But otherwise, I wasn’t aware there are definitive learned measures knocking down death rate with COVID for the masses.

Sure there, and a couple of things come to mind: Remdesivir, lying Prone vs. on your back, going to the hospital sooner than later in your illness, vs waiting till your pulse ox is terribad, etc. And no doubt nurses know better to see the signs and probably have a lot of little extras we're not hearing about, to make things all a bit better, and other drugs in trials. So if you get sick today and need hospitalization, are your odds of walking out improved by 5%, 10%, 25%? Who knows the number, but everything adds up over time. And I'd say it's better now than Day1 for any of us. Still not great, still not going out trying to get sick, but better than being the first round.

 

[MuirWannabe]

Sure there, and a couple of things come to mind: Remdesivir, lying Prone vs. on your back, going to the hospital sooner than later in your illness, vs waiting till your pulse ox is terribad, etc. And no doubt nurses know better to see the signs and probably have a lot of little extras we're not hearing about, to make things all a bit better, and other drugs in trials. So if you get sick today and need hospitalization, are your odds of walking out improved by 5%, 10%, 25%? Who knows the number, but everything adds up over time. And I'd say it's better now than Day1 for any of us. Still not great, still not going out trying to get sick, but better than being the first round.

Ok. That makes sense. Thanks. And yes, hopefully it only continues to improve in meaningful ways quickly. I guess for me personally, I need some signs of serious progress in the next few months.

 

[ivinsfan]

That's right as a local doctor I know said, "You don't want to be the first person to catch anything. Later is better then sooner."

 

[unclemick]

Since returning to pre-Covid activities is likely to result in death or a permanent impairment/disability to someone my age, and my spouse, I can wait a very long time.

Belly button age 77. ER age 27.

Heh heh heh - time to learn some new dance steps - new habits.

 

[audreyh1]

Our local bank was taken over by a regional bank in the spring. At the "new bank" you have to be wearing a mask and shake the front door and someone will let you in. Talk about professional?!? I am wanting to transfer my accounts to another bank in our small town (where you can actually walk into the lobby), but worry about covid risks.

That sounds very professional to me. They have to control how many are in the lobby at a time and that’s a reasonable way to handle it as well as make sure entering customers are wearing a mask. Many banks have security guards manning the door right now.

 

[audreyh1]

That’s one of my concerns. We wait 6 more months. They say, well in just another 6 months we will be there with a vaccine. So wait again. Then, when that 6 months expires, they say wait a big longer. Those initial vaccine trials failed, but we know we can get there. So, the waiting goes on. And on.

Will that happen? I don’t know. But you could easily be waiting 3 years Into this thing and still be no closer to conquering it. And like we tell all the OMY’ers. That’s 3 less years of life to do what you really want.

As for the marshmallow experiment. That’s kind of an interesting analogy. But I look at it as though I did my delayed gratification throughout my adulthood. Now in retirement is the time not to delay gratification. If not now, when? Heck, we’ve got a whole long thread here on blowing that dough.

Appreciate your thoughts.

I guess I don’t see the point of deciding now that it’s going to be 3 years. We just don’t know.

That’s 3 less years of life to do what you really want.

If you get impatient and say to heck with all precautions, and things don’t go well, you might have even less. You don’t know.

We’re just dealing with this a few months at a time and not worrying past that. We’re plenty busy anyway.

Ok. That makes sense. Thanks. And yes, hopefully it only continues to improve in meaningful ways quickly. I guess for me personally, I need some signs of serious progress in the next few months.

And in 6 months, if according to you “serious progress” hasn’t been made, then what are you going to do?

 

[audreyh1]

https://www.newsweek.com/texas-man-dies-covid-19-after-visit-granddaughter-infected-party-1520181

And that is the very thorny issue to be considered when we say 'do what you want to do'.

That’s very sad. But the kicker is why would they visit grandparents soon after being at a party? If you are going to socialize, simply don’t visit your grandparents up close until you know you’re “clean”. Yep, self-isolate. If not possible you have to visit at a distance.

 

[MuirWannabe]

And in 6 months, if according to you “serious progress” hasn’t been made, then what are you going to do?

I’d answered this more long winded up thread a couple of times. But my thinking is I’ll begin to get out of ‘hunker mode’. Start traveling, restaurant dining, long distance hiking, in person church attendance, etc. Still try my best to manage risk, but without stopping the activities I want to do the most.

Thanks for your thoughts.

 

[audreyh1]

I don’t see anything wrong with hiking, picnicking, staying in cabins, camping, long distance car travel even now. It can be done pretty safely. You have to take your own food, or use take out/drive through. Many outdoor activities can be enjoyed, just not in groups.

 

[harllee]

The more I think about it I am wondering exactly what things I am not doing that I really miss and it is not much. I have done some in state traveling by car. I am doing alot of outdoor activities--biking, hiking, etc. I am seeing friends and families through Zoom and outdoor social distancing. I am not going to restaurants but I am doing pick up and enjoying that. A couple of things I am missing--music concerts and in person sports. But I am able to see some of those on TV or Zoom. Not perfect but life is good and enjoyable and I feel safe.

Muirwannabe--can't you figure out a way to do most of the things you are missing now in a safe manner? Maybe if you tell us on this forum what you really want to do we can make some suggestions regarding how it can be done safely.

 

[harllee]

Oh and my Church has started outdoor services--you can either bring a chair and sit outside or stay in your car and pick up the sermon on the radio (that is what I am doing and I feel very safe).

 

[cbo111]

A friend of our works in a large optometry clinic that is now back to fully functioning, with everyone wearing masks. Two weeks ago one of her fellow workers went out with covid. Last week another tested positive. The clinic has yet to notify anyone of these illnesses, because managers of the clinic say they will "lose too much money if they have to shut down again."
I'm guessing this is not an unusual scenario, which directly influences my decision to delay getting teeth cleaned, eyes examined, etc., until there is a decent vaccine.

 

[audreyh1]

Oh no!

 

[harllee]

A friend of our works in a large optometry clinic that is now back to fully functioning, with everyone wearing masks. Two weeks ago one of her fellow workers went out with covid. Last week another tested positive. The clinic has yet to notify anyone of these illnesses, because managers of the clinic say they will "lose too much money if they have to shut down again."
I'm guessing this is not an unusual scenario, which directly influences my decision to delay getting teeth cleaned, eyes examined, etc., until there is a decent vaccine.

Yikes!! I would have thought that the governing board of optometry in your state or the state health department would have required the patients to be notified.

Restaurants in my state are not required to notify customers if staff test positive but I would have hoped opticians would be regulated better.