Post Vaccination Behavior

[ivinsfan]

I'm a little confused. There are clearly adverse reactions that go unreported, but that wasn't the main point. The point was that the CDC *tries* to collect a lot of data. Every one of us was supposed to see the flier mentioned by Alan and sign up. I did, but a lot of people didn't.

This is not a huge concern in terms of what we can expect from the vaccine. There is probably *sufficient* data, but the effort to collect was a bit ad hoc and inefficient.

I'll argue that severe adverse reactions will be reported no different then flu vaccines and shingles vaccines. Do we need to hear about every single person that had a mild headache for one day? In MHO No we don't.

And I don't need or care for "personalized" check ins or basically spam from the CDC.

 

[twaddle]

Do we need to hear about every single person that had a mild headache for one day?

Well, it covers a range of severity, including post-vaccine infection, and it "watches" for a couple weeks. You get vaccine-specific data.

I like data.

Edited to add: check-ins can continue for up to 5 weeks, apparently.

 

[ivinsfan]

Well, it covers a range of severity, including re-infection, and it "watches" for a couple weeks. You get vaccine-specific data.

I like data.

Too much data gives me a headache...

And I'm a big girl, I can watch myself..

 

[harllee]

At some point I am going to start doing more things--visiting friends and family, eating in restaurants, going to the theater and sporting events, etc. I am not sure when I will start doing those things--I will have to feel more comfortable than I do now but I am sure I will do those things at some point. But my DH and I have decided that we will continue to wear masks (maybe even double masks) when we are in crowded indoor situations forever. We have not had even cold or a sniffle for a year now and that has been great for us and we think one of the main reasons for that is mask wearing. We have gotten use to wearing masks so it is not big deal to continue.

 

[ivinsfan]

At some point I am going to start doing more things--visiting friends and family, eating in restaurants, going to the theater and sporting events, etc. I am not sure when I will start doing those things--I will have to feel more comfortable than I do now but I am sure I will do those things at some point. But my DH and I have decided that we will continue to wear masks (maybe even double masks) when we are in crowded indoor situations forever. We have not had even cold or a sniffle for a year now and that has been great for us and we think one of the main reasons for that is mask wearing. We have gotten use to wearing masks so it is not big deal to continue.

I was just thinking that next winter during flu season DH and I can mask up in public places without feeling out of place. During the horrible 18 flu season DH was standing by for a serious heart surgery and we basically had a Covid style winter.

 

[cathy63]

I'm a little confused. There are clearly adverse reactions that go unreported, but that wasn't the main point. The point was that the CDC *tries* to collect a lot of data. Every one of us was supposed to see the flier mentioned by Alan and sign up. I did, but a lot of people didn't.

This is not a huge concern in terms of what we can expect from the vaccine. There is probably *sufficient* data, but the effort to collect was a bit ad hoc and inefficient.

Which flier are you talking about? Alan is in the UK, but you gave a link to a US database, so the flier he received probably had nothing to do with the data you're referencing.

The consumer vaccine survey we try to get people to sign up for in the U.S. is v-safe https://vsafe.cdc.gov/, which is collecting information about side-effects and their duration. I think that's probably the flier you saw. The v-safe data isn't related to VAERS, which is the database you linked to. These are different programs, although if the CDC follows up by phone with someone who reports an adverse event through v-safe, I'd expect them to submit it to VAERS as well.

I have talked to a few thousand people about v-safe by now (and am participating myself). The vast majority of the people I meet are willing to participate and those who are able usually sign up during their 15-minute wait; but a large number of people who are currently eligible for the vaccine either don't have a smart phone or don't know how to use it, so their data isn't getting into the database. We are expanding to teachers next week and younger people with pre-existing conditions in two weeks, so I think the participation rate will increase as we get to populations that are more technology oriented.

edit: Oh I see you added the v-safe flier to your post after I quoted it. You won't find that data online yet.

 

[twaddle]

Thanks for that -- I didn't realize that it was a separate system from VAERS. Apparently you can self-submit to VAERS, but I want to see the data from v-safe.

Any idea where the aggregated v-safe data lives?

Edit: Ah, I saw your edit that said it wasn't online yet.

Now I'm curious. Plenty of "headache" kind of data in VAERS, so this is sourced mostly from doctor visits or CDC follow-up calls?

 

[cathy63]

Thanks for that -- I didn't realize that it was a separate system from VAERS. Apparently you can self-submit to VAERS, but I want to see the data from v-safe.

Any idea where the aggregated v-safe data lives?

Edit: Ah, I saw your edit that said it wasn't online yet.

Now I'm curious. Plenty of "headache" kind of data in VAERS, so this is sourced mostly from doctor visits or CDC follow-up calls?

Here's a set of slides from a CDC meeting that has some summary data from v-safe. It's about 6 weeks old though. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-01/06-COVID-Shimabukuro.pdf

 

[AtlasShrugged]

No traffic. Everybody outside exercising. People seem to like working from home. No more flu season!

So, yeah, wipe out the virus, but I will miss some aspects of the pandemic.

Fair enough.

I will miss how nice flying has become. I've done it twice in the last 4 months. It's become a much more civilized affair.

 

[twaddle]

Here's a set of slides from a CDC meeting that has some summary data from v-safe. It's about 6 weeks old though. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-01/06-COVID-Shimabukuro.pdf

Excellent! That's a much larger dataset than VAERS, and the numbers make more sense to me. I was seeing some lopsided numbers in VAERS.

 

[harllee]

Here's a set of slides from a CDC meeting that has some summary data from v-safe. It's about 6 weeks old though. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-01/06-COVID-Shimabukuro.pdf

Thanks for posting this. I did the V safe after each of my vaccines so I am interested in the data. Overall, both of the vaccines appear to be very safe.

 

[Sojourner]

Personally, I am an age that every year of my life I give up to this virus is a rather large percentage of my remaining life. So, I won't give them up easily. When this CV mess started I decided to cancel many plans and give up one year to sheltering near home. Hopefully, my sacrifice would allow the younger and less vulnerable people to keep our society functioning well. I think that happened. If there were serious restrictions or problems after a year, I would reconsider how to best protect myself while making best use of my time. I had no desire to die early or be a long hauler. I bet a year. So far I think it was a good bet.

+1, very well said. Given that we now have much more effective medical treatments for severe COVID and have vaccines that offer 95% protection against symptomatic disease, I think the time has come (for those who've been vaccinated) to resume living their full lives. Of course there will still need to be some basic, prudent social precautions (masking in crowded spaces, etc.), but we all have a limited number of precious, irreplaceable days left to enjoy to their fullest. Giving up any more of those days due to COVID fears/anxieties/concerns is not a tradeoff that I'm willing to make (again, once I'm fully vaccinated).

 

[camfused]

I am a little confused. I see here folks saying they are waiting 2 weeks after the 2nd dose to resume some activities, but I read this: https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-vaccine-efficacy-explained.html

Which says:

All three vaccines were 100% effective at preventing severe disease six weeks after the first dose (for Moderna) or seven weeks after the first dose (for Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson, the latter of which requires only one dose). Zero vaccinated people in any of the trials were hospitalized or died of COVID-19 after the vaccines had fully taken effect.

Which would indicate you have to wait about 3 to 4 weeks after the 2nd dose (assuming 3 weeks between first and second). Can someone please give me an authoritative answer? Thanks.

BTW, this article does a good job explaining what 95% efficacy actually means (which was NOT what I thought it was).

 

[harllee]

I am a little confused. I see here folks saying they are waiting 2 weeks after the 2nd dose to resume some activities, but I read this: https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-vaccine-efficacy-explained.html

Which says:


Which would indicate you have to wait about 3 to 4 weeks after the 2nd dose (assuming 3 weeks between first and second). Can someone please give me an authoritative answer? Thanks.

BTW, this article does a good job explaining what 95% efficacy actually means (which was NOT what I thought it was).

As for Moderna (which I had), the second dose is 4 weeks after the first dose, which would be 6 weeks from the first dose as stated in the quote above. When I got my Moderna vaccine they gave me a handout which said that full effectiveness would occur 2 weeks from the second dose (which would be 6 weeks from the first dose). Not sure about Pfizer.

 

[twaddle]

@camfused, there is new data coming in all the time, especially since the original trials were somewhat limited.

Go with whatever they tell you for your specific vaccine at the time of administration.

 

[disneysteve]

No traffic. Everybody outside exercising. People seem to like working from home. No more flu season!

So, yeah, wipe out the virus, but I will miss some aspects of the pandemic.

Fair point. Every cloud has a silver lining. Still, I think overall most of us would trade that stuff to have COVID gone for good.


As for no more flu season, if one thing from the pandemic sticks around, I sincerely hope it is the wearing of masks in public at least during flu season or if you personally aren't feeling well. That simple act would prevent so much illness.

 

[twaddle]

Speaking of new data, NEJM published the Israel Pfizer study today. Pfizer vaccinated 22,000 in their original study. The new study: "1,163,534 were eligible for the study and 596,618 were matched to unvaccinated controls."

Worth a read: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765

To pick out one random bit of data, infection risk reduction for a 70+ year-old after only the first dose (14-20 days) was only 22%.

 

[ivinsfan]

Speaking of new data, NEJM published the Israel Pfizer study today. Pfizer vaccinated 22,000 in their original study. The new study: "1,163,534 were eligible for the study and 596,618 were matched to unvaccinated controls."

Worth a read: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765

To pick out one random bit of data, infection risk reduction for a 70+ year-old after only the first dose (14-20 days) was only 22%.

The FDA seems to have significantly better numbers up to 90% two weeks after the first dose. Be nice to know which one is correct.

 

[twaddle]

This new study stratifies that data. You can find some fairly specific cases, various sub-populations, etc. To be clear, the old efficacy numbers are still supported, but I wanted to pick out a very specific case (thinking of my mother, and this is only infection risk, not an outcome).

I guess I should have picked a better random data point. In general, risk of hospitalization is reduced by 74% after the first dose.

The relative-risk in this context is probably different as well, since Israel has a very high vaccination rate, the unvaccinated control are probably fairly low risk.

 

[Sojourner]

I am a little confused. I see here folks saying they are waiting 2 weeks after the 2nd dose to resume some activities, but I read this: https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-vaccine-efficacy-explained.html

Which says:

All three vaccines were 100% effective at preventing severe disease six weeks after the first dose (for Moderna) or seven weeks after the first dose (for Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson, the latter of which requires only one dose). Zero vaccinated people in any of the trials were hospitalized or died of COVID-19 after the vaccines had fully taken effect.

Which would indicate you have to wait about 3 to 4 weeks after the 2nd dose (assuming 3 weeks between first and second). Can someone please give me an authoritative answer? Thanks.

The new NEJM study, which followed roughly 1.2 million Israeli citizens, showed that the Pfizer vaccine was very effective at preventing deaths, but not 100%. Quoting directly from the study:

Estimated effectiveness during days 14 through 20 (after one dose) and days 21 through 27 (gradual shifting between the first and second vaccine doses) was 72% and 84% for Covid-19–related death, respectively.

Unfortunately, this study didn't continue to monitor people after the 42-day mark, so it didn't shed any new light on how well the Pfizer vaccine prevented COVID-related death starting from 6 weeks after the initial dose.

However, considering it did show an 84% effectiveness by day 27 and other studies have shown a nearly 100% effectiveness beyond 42 days, I will feel quite confident in resuming many kinds of activities (like taking an overseas flight) two weeks after I receive my second Pfizer or Moderna shot.

 

[explanade]

Life after vaccination for some people in CA.

The vaccinated have reason to exercise caution, say experts. The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have been shown to be about 95% effective, which is reassuringly high but not 100%. Encouraging preliminary data suggest that most vaccinated people do not transmit the virus. Still, it is possible that inoculated individuals, showing no symptoms, could spread the virus. Which is why they still must wear masks.

Dr. Robert Kim-Farley, 73, a UCLA medical epidemiologist and infectious-diseases expert, received his second dose of the Pfizer vaccine last week and should have maximum protection 14 days afterward.

Still, Kim-Farley said, he will mask and distance around his grandchildren for their safety and when he goes out in public. But he will go to the grocery store every few days instead of twice monthly.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says such precautions must continue because of uncertainties, including how long vaccine protections will last. The group continues to advise against unnecessary travel, and federal rules require even vaccinated travelers to show negative tests for the virus before returning from abroad.

Read in Los Angeles Times: https://apple.news/Aolh7zoyYS8eZfxd6I9hD8A

 

[EveryLady]

Here's what appears to be a good explanation how to interpret vaccine efficacy figures. It's is a thread by a professor of microbiology at a medical school retweeted by Dr. Scott Gottlieb:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1365697625643749378

Where viral circulation and the probability of encountering someone with covid is low, a further 95% reduction in that low risk means an individual is functionally immune to covid. It's highly unlikely that person will develop covid. That may not be the case in a setting where there's a very high risk of being exposed for a substantial period of time to someone infectious with SARS-CoV-2. Here, a 95% reduction in the resulting risk helps - a lot! - but the absolute risk to the individual may be relatively high - or at least substantially higher.

 

[MuirWannabe]

Going to in person church this morning. That feels so exciting. Yea!!!!

 

[Chuckanut]

Here's what appears to be a good explanation how to interpret vaccine efficacy figures. It's is a thread by a professor of microbiology at a medical school retweeted by Dr. Scott Gottlieb:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1365697625643749378

Mr. Krammer makes a lot of sense. A whole lot of sense.

Some of the people who are saying after being vaccinated we still have to behave 100% of the time like no vaccine exist, are barking up the wrong tree. At some point, people need to be released from this locked down way of life. Either they wade into it in reasonable, measured ways, like Mr. Krammer describes, or they may jump off the bridge into the icy rushing waters.

 

[twaddle]

Another voice of reason is Vinay Prasad, MD, MPH. But there's no downside to people erring on the side of caution, I guess.